Thoughts {09.29.16}

Markets saw a nice rally yesterday with the major indices again recording average gains of around one half of a percent.  Markets started the day more or less flat but rallied during the day on two things.  The first were rumors of an modest curbs on oil output out of the current OPEC meeting.  The 2nd I think was the growing consensus that Mrs. Clinton was the clear victor in the 1st debate the other night.  

The news on oil gave us a nice rally in energy stocks.  I think if it holds and we see a floor in oil prices in the $45-55 dollar a barrel range then we could see a stabilization in this sector along with the removal of price uncertainty.  That would mean that the dividends of the major players would be considered more secure and likely bring back more investment for exploration and development into the sector.  That would in turn be good for all the suppliers to the oil companies themselves.  As an added gift we would see further stabilization in S&P 500 earnings as the major declines we've seen in "oil patch" earnings would likely stop and could possibly improve.  Oil in the $45-55 dollar range would likely not put extreme upward pressure on gas prices so its impact on consumers wallets would probably not be too dramatic.

We've possibly also seen some sort of a relief rally on Mrs. Clinton's debate performance.  Prior to the debates there was growing concern amongst her supporters that Mr. Trump was gaining on her to the point that the election was perhaps becoming a more close thing than they were comfortable with.  This anxiety likely leaked into the markets.  As I have said in the past, investors may have no love for Mrs. Clinton but they at least have some ideas of her policies and what her Presidency might look like.  Her performance the other night likely assuaged some of those concerns.  I'll repeat what I said the other day.  "While I think Mrs. Clinton won the debate, Mr. Trump earned the right to continue to try to close the deal with the American people.  Mrs. Clinton did not knock him out of the box or did he implode on his own.  I'm guessing that last nights debate  probably didn't change the undecided vote enough to start swinging the election to one of the two.  Both survived and  this will be continued in round two.    My guess is the next debate will be uglier and more personal."  The New York Times also wonders on whether the results of the debate caused a shift in the race.  We will have to see how the individual state polls come forth in the coming days in order to get a better sense of where we are now in the race so I think it's likely we could see more volatility before the election is settled.

Right now the markets like what they see although investors are fickle and we could see a short-term change tomorrow for all I know.  The 3rd quarter ends Friday so I continue to think there's a higher probability of support at least through the close on September 30th.  Portfolio managers are going to want to show good numbers at least through then.

Back Monday.

*Long ETFs related to energy and the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please note that positions can change at anytime without notice on this blog or any other electronic medium.

Thoughts {09.28.16}

I'm really light of interesting things to talk about today so I'll keep this brief.

The hits just keep coming in hedge fund land.  Perry capital is closing its flagship fund.

Irrespective of my initial views of the debates, the markets have pretty much decided that Mrs.  Clinton won.  All the major US indices tacked on gains yesterday.  Most were up over a half of a percent.  

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX has a plan for putting a colony on Mars.  The problem is there is a high probability of death if you sign up for the voyage.  That's not from some scientist.  That's from Musk himself.  The space nerd in me thinks going to Mars would be pretty cool but putting a long-term colony on the planet sounds like a logistical  and scientific nightmare.  I'm not sure why we wouldn't first practice this sort of thing on the moon.  Still the video of the rocket Musk envisions taking us out there is pretty neat.  Go watch it here.

Quick Take On The Debate

As I said I need to be out today.  This is my quick take on the debate last night.  I think if you were judging it on points then Mrs. Clinton narrowly won.  For the most part she looked Presidential and had a lot of answers to the more technical question asked by the moderator.  Mr. Trump was more of a generalist and at times it might have been better if he had better answers to certain specific questions like his tax returns.  He also had a sniffling problem throughout the debate that was distracting.  Trump also looked Presidential and authoritative at times.  While I think Mrs. Clinton won the debate, Mr. Trump earned the right to continue to try to close the deal with the American people.  Mrs. Clinton did not knock him out of the box or did he implode on his own.  I'm guessing that last nights debate  probably didn't change the undecided vote enough to start swinging the election to one of the two.  Both survived and  this will be continued in round two.    My guess is the next debate will be uglier and more personal.

Now that's my short take and it comes without reading anything that the pundits have put out today.  Also no polls have been taken nationally or in the battleground states so I might be way off.

Back tomorrow.

Thoughts {09.26.16}: A Few Things For You To Read

Some ideas to chew on and a few things for you to read.

The first Presidential debate will be held tonight at Hofstra University.  I think the winner of tonight will go a long way towards winning the election in November.  The election has turned in the past few weeks with Trump surging in the electoral map.  More states are rated toss-ups now than when we looked at the electoral map a few weeks ago.   All indications suggest about 100 million people will watch the debate tonight.  Markets will likely take their cues from how the candidates perform.  Go read Peggy Noonan over at the Wall Street Journal,  "The Year of the Reticent Voter".  

The market's decline on Friday probably had more to do with the past two day's gains than anything else.  Stocks were positive on the week and had their best move higher since the "Brexit" rebound  back in June.   The next event to watch for in stocks now that the Federal Reserve is off the table for a few months will be the upcoming earnings season.  That will kick off in October.  Also you know I think markets will become increasingly hostage to the elections.  The cynic in me also thinks there's a higher probability that stocks hang tight next week.  The 3rd quarter ends next Friday so money managers will be under the gun to show good numbers through then.  Wall Street will want to get paid!

Go read over at Bloomberg over in their "Briefs" section "The Hunt for Yield".  We may come back to this thought at a later date.  Note from the article that the S&P 500 yields about the same as a 10 year Treasury bond.  The S&P has the potential to grow in value over the next 10 years.  In a taxable account, you will be lucky to break even in a 10 year bond at current yield levels when you factor in inflation and taxes.  

Go read Danielle DiMartino Booth's latest column which discusses the Federal Reserve's latest decision on interest rates.  DiMartino Booth's posts are some of the best out there and should be read every week by investors.  While your at her blog go read her tribute a few weeks ago to the September 11 terror attacks.   You will not have a dry eye after reading "Angels Manning Heaven's Trading Floor".

I have to be out for part of today and tomorrow visiting clients.  I will try to post tomorrow but will be back for sure on Wednesday.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please note that positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or on any other informational outlet.

Thoughts {09.22.16}

As expected, the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates yesterday.  They did give an indication that there is an increased likelihood that they could raise rates later in the year, most likely December.  Stocks rallied hard on that news.  More ink has been spilled and more bytes of computer memory have been consumed on this subject then perhaps any other event in the past few weeks.  Only the break-up of Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt perhaps garnered more information and consumed more time.

Stocks liked the result and rallied hard after the announcement.

Never-the-less there is a belief beginning to percolate in the investment community that world interest rates bottomed sometime this summer.  I've been thinking about this and plan to discuss it further in a future post.  My short take on that is that you should refinance your mortgage now if you haven't done so in the past few years.

Yesterday was Mylan Labs CEO Heather Bresch to take her grilling on Capitol Hill over the increase in prices of EpiPens.  EpiPens are devices that counter the effects of allergic reactions leading to anaphylactic shock.  Again under the theory that the worst scandals are the ones the public can easily understand, then the multi-hundred percent increase in what is basically a generic product {and a product than millions of parents rely on for their children} is probably easier for the public to grasp then what's happened over at Wells Fargo.  Mylan's issues impact children.  Not a good thing.  Really not a good thing in a political year.  Really, really not a good thing when the candidate leading in the Presidential race tried to overhaul the healthcare system when her husband was President.

Go read, "Immigration Reality Looks Nothing Like Trump Rhetoric" over at Bloomberg.

Back Monday.

*Mylan Labs is a component of several ETFs we own for clients and in personal accounts.  

Thoughts {09.21.16}

Good Morning:

Markets are in "wait and see mode" until after the Federal Reserve announces its decision on whether to raise interest rates or not today.  Markets are trading higher on news out of Japan last night where the Bank of Japan announced further policies to boost inflation.  However, that is nothing more than the preliminary bout for the main show out of the Federal Reserve later today.

Wall Street consensus is that there will be no increase today but language indicating a higher probability of an increase in December.  That's the next meeting for the Federal Reserve.   Markets have the potential to react negatively today if we see an unexpected rate increase, particularly if we get indications that we might see another one of these in December.  I think the economy can deal with increases now and at the end of the year but not sure the stock market is prepared to deal with that short term.

Markets have been locked into a roughly 1% trading range for about the last two weeks.  It will be interesting to see if todays announcement is enough to trade us out of that.  

Nobody had a worse day yesterday than Wells Fargo's Chairman John Stumpf.  The worse sort of scandal an institution can find itself embroiled in are the ones that John Q. Public can understand.  Under that standard Wells Fargo is embroiled in a doozy.  It has been alleged that  certain employees of the bank secretly created millions of unauthorized bank and credit card accounts--without their customers knowing about it.    Mr.  Stumpf was called on the carpet yesterday and was grilled by the Senate Banking Committee.  It was a bipartisan affair as both Republicans and Democrats took turns lashing out at both the bank and Mr. Stumpf.   None, however, went after him with the sharp stiletto that was reserved for Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.  Sen.  Warren accused Mr. Stumpf of "gutless leadership" and ripped into him on everything from what he was paid to whether anybody in the upper tier of management was fired.  However, she saved her broadest salvo for the end of her allowed time: 

"Here's what really gets me about this, Mr. Stumpf.  If one of your tellers took a handful of $20 bills out of the crash drawer, they'd probably be looking at criminal charges for theft. They could end up in prison.  But you squeezed your employees to the breaking point so they would cheat customers and you could drive up the value of your stock and put hundreds of millions of dollars in your own pocket.  And when it all blew up, you kept your job, you kept your multi-multimillion-dollar bonuses, and you went on television to blame thousands of $12-an-hour employees who were just trying to meet cross-sell quotas that made you rich.

"This is about accountability. You should resign. You should give back the money that you took while this scam was going on, and you should be criminally investigated by both the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission. This just isn't right."

You can search the internet for Elizabeth Warren and John Stumpf but you can see the main part of the exchange here if you're so inclined.

*Wells Fargo is a component of several ETFs we own for clients and in personal accounts.  

How Will Market Volatility Affect Your Portfolio?

It’s not a secret that markets are often unstable and go through periods of volatility. What’s important to remember is that, while frustrating, these market ups and downs are normal and expected, although the factors that contribute to them may change. It’s also key to point out that you have options during these uncertain phases and you can take steps to protect your investments and minimize losses.

What is Market Volatility?

Simply put, volatility is a term to describe the corrective process that forces prices lower. Most investors hate volatility associated with price declines. Not surprisingly, they don’t mind it when stocks go up 300 points, but that doesn’t seem to happen as frequently as price decreases. 

When discussing market corrections, it’s crucial to place them in categories to deal with them appropriately. First, you have the type of price correction associated with the normal ebb and flow of markets. While there are always excuses for why markets decline, the usual underlying reason is that stocks are overbought, and buyers vanish until lower prices, time, or a combination of these factors, bring stocks to levels that will attract buyers. 

Historically, these sorts of corrections tend to lead to market declines of 5-20 percent. That is why the average volatility of the market is around 14 percent. We saw one of these corrections back in late November 2015 through January 2016, and another related to the “Brexit” panic in the summer. Anything more dramatic, such as a decline greater than 20 percent, usually has a stronger catalyst behind it. The types of factors that contribute to a steep decline are an unpredictable event or, more likely, a fear of economic slowdown.

These situations force investors to alter their market assessment and typically mean that market prices have to decline in order to discount whatever changes investors fear will take place.

The final category of decline is a cyclical bear market. These are rare events and are longer-term declines that force severely overvalued markets back into equilibrium.   Right now, all the evidence suggests that if we are beginning a correction, it leans more towards the average instability of stocks.

What are some factors leading to our current unsettled phase?

Current Market Situation

This summer, we experienced a period of over 40 days where stocks didn’t move even one percent. That trend seems to have changed since we turned the corner into September. On September 9^th we witnessed the markets lose a bit over two percent of their value and since then, stocks have been fitful.

As we creep closer to the November Federal elections, we will most likely see increased volatility. Here are a few reasons why this could occur:

1. Economic Weakness

The first cause of current instability is the general state of the economy. While economic indicators continue to trend toward the positive side, there have been undercurrents of weakness in certain areas all year. For example, auto sales, while still strong, have been less robust in the past few months.

2. Corporate Earnings

Also, as we march further through September, we’re going to start hearing about corporate earnings. A recent belief on Wall Street is that earnings may be starting to see positive year over year quarterly comparisons. This leads to investors anxiously awaiting third quarter numbers that will be announced  at the beginning of October.

3. Increased Interest Rates

Another factor that leads to volatility is that Wall Street will be on “Fed Watch” for a possible rate hike at their September meeting. Most investors still think that the Federal Reserve will want to wait until after the elections to raise rates, but any change to this view could bring about more uncertainty in the markets.

4. November Elections

The upcoming elections will likely become a significant headline event for stocks. We mentioned in our summer letter that investors were pricing in a Clinton Administration.  However, if investors begin to doubt this consensus, then markets could become increasingly unsettled. There are two primary ways the consensus could change: first, a poor debate performance by Mrs. Clinton, and second, voter doubts about the stability of her health.

Mrs. Clinton’s health became an issue after she suffered some sort of event at ceremonies commemorating the September 11, 2001 attacks.  Only time will tell if this becomes a bigger issue for the markets. Investors, however, are likely increasingly aware that she has more health problems than anyone previously believed.

5. Statistical Market Performance

Finally, statistically, the September-October period is typically the weakest timeframe during the year in terms of market performance. The volatility we experienced on the September 9^th serves a reminder of where we are in the calendar’s investing cycle.

Despite the volatility, you can still plan ahead and protect yourself. Here’s what we do for clients and this is what you can do for yourself in the face of such market uncertainty.

What Steps Can You Take to Deal with Volatility?

The first thing is to understand that corrections are part of the investment process.  Stocks don’t go up all the time and the day-to-day movements usually have nothing to do with longer-term market direction, either good or bad. That being said, there are actions you may need to take as you look at the ways volatility will affect your financial plan.

1. Reevaluate

Investors should review their individual risk and reward profiles to ensure they are still in line with their goals. More often than not, investors are better off staying with their longer-term investment plan. Sometimes, though, things change and you need to reevaluate.

It’s possible that something has changed in the kind of return you are expecting from your investments versus the risk you are willing to take. In that case, reexamining your portfolio now, while markets are near all-time highs, is a more strategic move than taking action after markets have lost 10-15 percent of their value. One of the ways we do this is to review client positions and attempt to size their cash exposure appropriately. Cash currently pays next to nothing, but it can sometimes be a better option than losing money.

2. Diversify

Another wise move is to diversify your portfolio across different asset classes. This method often smoothes out some market volatility, although it’s not likely to prevent your portfolio from declining when markets correct.

In a low-interest rate environment, we follow a growth plus yield strategy. We look for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that we believe have the potential to give us superior longer-term growth in client’s portfolios. 

3. Keep Calm and Hold On

Finally, understand that while this period is statistically the weakest part of the year, we are now closer to that November to April period where stocks have historically posted the majority of their gains. While there is no guarantee that this will occur each year, and it likely will not if we are headed into a slower economic environment, stocks have traditionally finished the year strong. Assuming things don’t change, a run-of-the-mill correction should be viewed opportunistically.

If you have any questions or concerns about market volatility and how it will affect your portfolio, please contact us at 708.488.0115 or by email at lumencapital@hotmail.com.

About Chris
Christopher R. English is a money manager and the founder of Lumen Capital Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisory firm. Specializing in investment management and developing customized portfolios that reflect a client’s values and needs, he has nearly three decades of experience working with individuals, families, businesses, and foundations. Based in the greater Chicago area, he serves clients throughout Illinois, as well as Florida, Massachusetts, California, Indiana, and other states. To schedule a complimentary portfolio review, contact Chris today by calling 708.488.0115 or emailing lumencapital@hotmail.com.

I have to be out tomorrow so the next post here will be Wednesday.

Chart Talk {09.15.16}

You can double-click on the chart to make it larger.  This concludes our chart week.  We'll take a look at the over all market and the presidential races sometime next week.  Back Monday.

Chart is from Tradingview.com.

*Long ETFs related to the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ 100 in certain client and personal accounts.  Please know that positions can change at any time without notice to readers of this blog.

Chart Talk {09.14.16}

You can double-click on the chart to make it larger.

Chart is from Tradingview.com.

*Long ETFs related to the energy sector in certain client and personal accounts.  Also long select energy related stocks in certain client accounts as legacy positions.  Please know that positions can change at any time without notice to readers of this blog.

Chart Talk {09.13.16}

You can double-click on the chart to make it larger.

Chart is from Tradingview.com.

*Long ETFs related to the emerging markets in client and personal accounts.  Please know that positions can change at any time without notice to readers of this blog.

Chart Talk {09.12.16}

You can double-click on the chart to make it larger.

Chart is from Tradingview.com.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please know that positions can change at any time without notice to readers of this blog.

Thoughts {09.08.16}

Futures are pointing to a flattish open after the ECB leaves their interest rates unchanged.  You have to go back over 40 days now or the middle of July to find a market move over 1%.  What gets us out of this range is hard to guess at this point.  Something will make us move though.  A catalyst could be anything that changes the investment world's consensus that Mrs. Clinton will be our next President.

This is not a political blog.  You can find scores of those on the internet.  When we talk about politics here it is solely in the context of how these events will effect the markets. and investment  My own personal political views aren't important in terms of trying to make money for my clients and I strive to keep those out of any comments I make regarding the elections on this blog.  That said understanding who controls the government's pursestrings after this year will give us some clue on economic policy which will ultimately affect the stock market.  That's why it's important to pay attention to the political tea leaves.

I still believe it is possible next year for whoever is President to strike some sort of "Grand Bargain" on a host of issues; taxes, economic policy immigration, more military spending, and a big infrastructure buildout.  I think the stock market smells this and that's why prices have held on to the gains we've made so far this year.

Having said that, I do think there's the possibility that volatility returns at some point prior to the election.  We'll talk more about volatility in the next few weeks.  Next week we're going to take a look at a series of charts.

One final thing.  Ignore the pundits who will proclaim that the country will be ruined by whoever becomes President.  History has pretty much proven that the US is bigger than its President.

Back Monday.

Valuation {09.06.16}

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 2,186.48 which is a gain of slightly over 6%  for the year without factoring in dividends. This represents a gain of 5.80% from a market close of 2066.61 from when we  last reviewed these numbers back on May 17, 2016.  Below is our current valuation analysis.  We are using a current earnings range of $121-124 with a mid-point of $122.75 on the S&P 500 for 2016.  Earnings estimates are unchanged since our last review.    We also use a simple color code to give you some reference for these numbers.  Green will indicate that the valuation on the index on a strictly historical basis has become more attractive from the last time we did this review.  Red will indicate the opposite.  Black means unchanged.

Our Midpoint S&P 500 Earnings Estimate of $122.75. {Year End 2016}

Current PE:                     17.81{PE has expanded from previous review of 16.84}
Earnings Yield:                 5.61 {down from previous review of 5.94%}
Dividend Yield:                2.05% {Estimated and down from previous of 2.10%}

Current Expected Price Cone of Probability {COP}:   1,700-2,150.  Market has rebounded from "Brexit" scare over the summer and is currently trading north of our COP for 2016.

Rolling Four Quarter Estimate for the S&P 500, Our Estimate $128.50:

Current PE:                     17.01% 

Earnings Yield:                 5.88% 
Dividend Yield:                2.15% {Estimated}

The current yield on the 10 year US Treasury is 1.53%.  That is a decline of 23 basis points since the last time we did this review.    

The Cone of Probability {COP} is our current assessment of the trading range within which we think stocks have the potential to trade during the described time period.  It is a probabilistic assessment based on a many factors.  Some of these inputs are: Earnings estimates, also are those estimates rising or falling, dividend yield, earnings yield and the current yield on the US 10 year treasury.  This is not an exhaustive list of all of the variables that are used in creating the cone.  The Cone of Probability is used solely for analytical purposes.  It will fluctuate with market conditions and changes to the data inputs.  Index prices can and have traded outside of the range of the cone.  The data supplied when we discuss the cone is for informational use only.  There should be no expectation that this price range will be accurate and there are no guarantees that this information is correct.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client accounts, although positions can change at any time.

Time To Kick The Sand Out Of The Shoes.

Years ago when I worked for a certain brokerage firm, the head of our division got on the squawk box {Yes that's where CNBC got the name} and gave a speech each Tuesday after Labor Day to the troops all over the country.  It was always referred to as the "Time to Kick the Sand Out of the Shoes" speech because he aways made that comment somewhere in his talk.  The message was simple.  Summer's over.  Time to get back to work.

In the wheel of the year under which Wall Street marks time, July and August are the only periods when making money takes a backseat to more leisurely pursuits.   Folks in the investment class, particularly those out east, tend to be more interested in being at the beach or in the mountains than in front of their screens.  It's one of the reasons that August can sometimes be volatile.  Events come up and the "A" team is away.    This August of course we had none of that.  There wasn't a single day during the month when the markets had more than a 1% move.  That lack of volatility is rare.  

Now though summer is over.  September and early October with all their historical ugly ghosts looms.  After that the mad dash to show positive numbers for the clients who pay Wall Street's bills.  There's going to be a lot of dashing this year as many, including much of the hedge fund community, are way behind in terms of performance.  As we turn towards colder weather here in the north, here's  a partial list of what the investment community is going to be watching:

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates when they next meet in September.  If they don't raise them at that meeting, will they do so in December.

Can OPEC get it's act together and find a way to trim production.

September 26, October 9 and October 19th are the three presidential debates.  The lone debate among the Vice-Presidential candidates will be October 4th.

US Presidential elections on November 8th.

What will be the political and economic implications of Great Britain's vote earlier in the summer to leave the EU?

Any Black Swan that comes over the transom.

That's the main list.  Others could come up.  Guess it's time to kick the sand out of the shoes!

Election Probabilities

This is an electoral college map from RealClearPolitics.com showing the current state of the Presidential election.  The map breaks down the most recent polling data out of the states and shows what would be the most likely outcome of the election if it was held around now.  I say "around now" because it is likely that some of the data is a few days to perhaps a week old.  The map runs the gamut of states solidly behind either Clinton or Trump, to those leaning towards a particular candidate to those that are toss-up states.  When you look at the map you can see the daunting task ahead of Mr. Trump and why probability suggests it is much more unlikely that he will become our next President.

Mrs. Clinton begins the day with 262 electoral votes likely to vote her way in the upcoming election*.  There will be noises over the next two months about one or two of these states in the "Leaning Clinton" column perhaps voting the other way, but for the most part at this point she is probably locked into the 240-250 electoral vote range.  Remember you need 270 electoral votes to become President.  In the same vein, Mr. Trump begins the day with around 154 electoral votes.  That leaves 122 toss up electoral votes in 10 states up for grabs.  Lets assume that a couple of these states end up voting along historical lines.  In that case lets assume Georgia, Arizona and Missouri end up voting for Trump.  That gives him 191 electoral votes.  Now there are 7 states with 85 votes still up for grabs.  The problem for Trump is that with the exception of a few smaller states {i.e. maybe Nevada, Iowa or that split vote up in Maine} he has to run the table in order to win!  Assuming the polling data is correct, Mrs. Clinton just needs a few of these states to break her way in order to be the next President.  All she needs right now is a few of these toss-up states to return to their most recent voting patterns and she wins.  Iowa and Wisconsin voting according to trend puts her over the top based on the map above.  Now you get a picture of the daunting task ahead for Trump.  He either has to find a way to pick off some of these "leaning Clinton" states or find a way to win almost everything that's up for grabs.  This math is largely why Wall Street's expectation is of a Clinton victory.

Don't shoot the messenger if you're a Trump supporter.  I'm only telling you what the math says.  If you're all in for Mrs. Clinton then know that there's a long way till the elections and a lot can change in two month's time.  I'm telling you how things stand today, not where they may be in two months.  While I think the math is troublesome for Trump, I think he has a legitimate shot to change this landscape if he can score a decisive victory in the upcoming debates.  I think that is his one chance to change the election and electoral dynamic.   The only other thing that could possibly change this math is an unlooked for event that comes over the transom that effects the national consciousness enough to change the trajectory of the election.

Oh and I don't care about anybody's political beliefs and I'm not trying to inject my own views into my blog.  Again, I'm going by the math and I care about the math by how it will impact the markets and my investments for my clients. 

We'll visit this map again a few times up to election day.

Back Tuesday and a happy Labor Day holiday to all.  Hard to believe that summer is over!

*There is what I think an error in the map above.  There are no columns showing the most solid Clinton or Trump states.   Also note that Maine and Nebraska are not winner take all states for the electoral college but allocate their electors by popular vote.