Thursday, May 29, 2014

Vestiges From The Last Ice Age

Revised GDP numbers in this morning show US GDP declining 1% in the 1st quarter.  Analysts are already looking beyond that print to 2nd quarter numbers which by some estimates could grow in excess of 3.5%.  The 1st quarter ended March 31st.  It probably snowed here in Chicago that day.  I know it did April 15th because I have the pictures to prove it.  

That GDP print is the last vestige from our most recent ice age which we're now finding out had a bigger impact on the economy than many perhaps thought.  That's behind us now and markets seem to be focusing on signs of a pickup in economic activity.  Could be why the stock market's decided to stage a bit of a rally with the S&P 500 recently breaking through resistance to new all time highs.


And if you're reading this in California where its probably going to be 1 bazillion degrees today and you don't believe what I'm selling, then look at these pictures from Memorial Day weekend up on Lake Superior where estimates suggest that over 4% of the lake is still frozen.  Photos are from the Huffington Post.com.



Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Market Correction and Summer Doldrums.

Both Dr. Ed Yardeni and Bespoke Investment Group do a better job at illustrating two points we've recently made.  We've discussed last Thursday the great consolidation going on with the market.  Doctor Ed talks about this in the context of this chart which shows historic corrections since 2008.  
And notes in this excerpt how this correction so far has been different:

"This year’s correction is unique so far. The S&P 500 is down just 0.5% from its record high on May 13. However, lots of stocks are down 10%-20% since March. They tend to be SmallCaps, as evidenced by the 8.7% decline in the Russell 2000, and the 12.2% drop in its Growth component. The Nasdaq is down 5.2% from its recent high. However, some LargeCap stocks have also taken big hits. In the S&P 500, Biotechnology, Internet Software & Services, and Consumer Discretionary Retail are down 13.5%, 12.0%, and 9.4% from their recent peaks.


I have characterized the recent selloff as an “internal correction.” Scrambling to avoid giving back the fabulous gains from last year’s melt-up rally, institutional investors have been rebalancing their portfolios away from high-P/E to low-P/E stocks. They’ve moved some of their portfolios out of Growth into Value stocks. Stocks with predictable earnings are outperforming the more cyclical ones."

We've talked many times about market seasonality, most recently in our spring letter to clients.   Bespoke talks about the summer doldrums arriving early in 2014:


"Although volatility still reigns supreme in small caps and the group formerly known as the highfliers, the broader market couldn’t be more relaxed as the proverbial summer doldrums have set in early.  Over the last three months the spread between the S&P 500’s intraday high and low has been less than 5% (chart below).  To find a three month range where the S&P 500 traded in a narrower range over a three month period, you have to go eight years back all the way to October 2006.

For the S&P 500 to trade in such a narrow range over a three month period is certainly not a common occurrence.  First of all, going back to 1984, there have only been six other periods where the S&P 500 traded in a narrower range after not having done so for at least six months.  Additionally, the average spread between the S&P 500’s intraday high and intraday low over a three month period is 13.2%, or more than 2.5 times the current three month high-low spread."

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in client and personal accounts.  We are long various components of the other indices mentioned in these articles in certain client and personal accounts.  Note however that positions can change at any time.
Links:

I have something that's come over the transom today so I don't know if I'll be posting tomorrow.  For sure I will be back Thursday!

Monday, May 26, 2014

Memorial Day




Happy Memorial Day!

In our town of River Forest one of the highlights of our year is the Memorial Day parade which runs right down our street passing in front of Global HQ.  To honor this day we fly two American flags between now and the 4th of July.

The flag you see off to the side of Global HQ was carried by my brother-in-law who flew Harrier jets for the Marines in Afghanistan. We honor his service as well as the services of all prior family members and all others who are serving or who have served in our armed forces. 

God Speed!

Happy Memorial Day everybody!

Friday, May 23, 2014

Summer Hours



The weather's warming up {Finally!!! Although as I'm writing this the heat has kicked on in the office!} and thoughts turn to the great outdoors. We're starting "summer hours" on the blog after today. We'll still post Monday through Thursday until just after Labor Day but we'll reserve the weekends for family. Rest assured we'll be first on line if events this summer make it necessary to do so.  




See you outside!

Smidiríní:

The Reformed Broker:  Scenes From an Independent Brokerage Firm.  From the author:  "I consider non-traded REITs or nREITS to be part of the group of investments that are just absolutemurderholes for clients – they pay the brokers so much that they cannot possibly work out (and they rarely do wihout all kinds of aggravation and additional costs)." 

From Slate.com:  "Are Hispanics Joining the White Mainstream?"  The author's argument is the logical long term reality of what will happen to a majority of hispanics as they assimilate into American society.   

From Quartz.com:  "America's Flight From the Coasts."  Texas has seven of the top fifteen growing cities by population in the country.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

an tSionna {05.22.14}


Chart of the S&P 500 ETF SPY showing the great consolidation we've seen in the S&P 500.  Yes I know that other indices and asset classes have taken it on the chin this spring, but the overall market has held up well.  The SPY is up slightly over 2% so far this year.  It has seen one correction of about 6% last winter.  Since then it has spent the majority of it's time trading between 184-190.  SPY is currently at the top end of that range and is overbought by our work.  That does not mean that the index is doomed to decline from here.  It just suggests that on a probabilistic basis this is a higher risk entry moment.  For all I know the index could see an advance from here.  Stocks can stay over bought or over sold for long periods of time.

Based on the correction last winter,  SPY has spent much of the last seven months  trading between 174 and 190.  That is about a 9% range.  However that range has narrowed since February.  We've now traded between 184-190 since February 24 with the exception of one slight dip in April.  That's a range slightly above 3%.  

Investors tend to be complacent about this type of chop.  Traders hate it because volatility collapses and there is no clearly defined trend.  I'm of the opinion that we've been in the process of digesting that huge advance last year.  The good news if you are fully invested is that we've seen no large decline in the markets.  The bad news for the "buy the dips" crowd is that the market never dips.  

And we're not even to Memorial Day yet!

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Valuation {05.21.14}

This weekend will kick off the summer season with the Memorial Day long weekend.  This means in Wall Street's world that things slow down a bit as the big guys head to their favorite weekend watering holes on Friday.  In essence the investment community works on a three and a half day work week as Monday mornings tends to be slow and Fridays often finds the "B" team manning the desks, especially after the lunch hour. 

Since we're on the verge of that traditional slow down, I thought I'd take a look again at where we stand on a valuation basis.  As of this writing the market as represented by the S&P 500 is up less than 2% for the year.  Not much has changed in these numbers although valuations are a bit higher now than they were back in April.

Our Midpoint Estimate $118.75 {Through 12.31.2014}

Current PE:                   15.79
Earnings Yield:               6.33%
Dividend Yield:              1.86%


Rolling Four Quarter Estimate  $123.08 {Through 05.16.2014 via Fundamentalis.com}

Current PE:                   15.23
Earnings Yield:               6.56%
Dividend Yield:              1.86%

Current Expected Price Cone of Probability,   05.15.2014:   1,700-2,100.

The current yield on the 10 year US Treasury is 2.62%.  

The Cone of Probability is our current assessment of the trading range within which we think stocks have the potential to trade during the described time period.  It is a probabilistic assessment based on a many factors.  Some of these inputs are: Earnings estimates, also are those estimates rising or falling, dividend yield, earnings yield and the current yield on the US 10 year treasury.  This is not an exhaustive list of all of the variables that are used in creating the cone.  The Cone of Probability is used solely for analytical purposes.  It will fluctuate with market conditions and changes to the data inputs.  Index prices can and have traded outside of the range of the cone.  The data supplied when we discuss the cone is for informational use only.  There should be no expectation that this price range will be accurate and there are no guarantees that this information is correct.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client accounts, although positions can change at any time.  

Monday, May 19, 2014

Spring Letter to Clients {Conclusion}

Today we publish the conclusion to our Spring letter .  Again the bullet points are highlighted.
Business Insider.com cited a recent commentary from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg who noted, “We go into fundamental bear markets either when the Federal Reserve overtightens, when the economy heads into recession or both.” Our own internal work supports Rosenberg’s assessment. That is why irrespective of what might occur in the next few months; there is nothing in our analysis that leads us to believe that we are on the cusp of a recession or a contraction in corporate earnings that could lead to a longer-term market decline.  The Federal Reserve has signaled that they are in no hurry to raise interest rates and earnings do not signal recessionary concerns.  So far as first quarter earnings have been announced, revenue and profit growth for much of corporate America is exceeding analyst’s expectations.   We are positive about growth as we think the coming months are likely to see accelerated economic activity.  {Click here   if you are interested in a chart set that supports our view that things are getting better with the economy.} We also think investors will soon start to discount a winter that was almost medieval in its grip on the eastern half of the continent. Some of that activity is lost for good.  Restaurants for example can’t make up that Saturday evening when folks stayed home in January.  But the business that needed a new truck in January, the young couple looking for a new home and all the building activity that didn’t happen in the first quarter is still out there. 
We’ve discussed in past letters our longer term positive views.  We see nothing to change this analysis.  We are very excited about the potential for the many favorable things we see happening to the economy in the coming years.  We point these out in our letters and on our blog because they are often ignored or discounted away by the press.  That crowd is for the most part pessimistic, preferring to focus on problems on the political front, economic imbalances and the like.  We do not ignore these things as they all represent legitimate long-term concerns. But the fact that stocks may go to sleep for a bit is irrelevant to our long held thesis that our economy is slowly healing from the Great Recession.  We still believe that favorable demographic trends, coming energy independence here at home, coupled with the powerful gains we are seeing in productivity and knowledge during what we have taken to calling the "Era of Miniaturization" is longer term healthy for stocks.  These factors and others should lead to a resumption of the bull market once we get through any period of consolidation.  Probability would suggest however that the resumption in the advance is likely loaded into the back end of the year.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in Client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Spring Letter To Clients {Part IV}

Here's part IV of our Spring Letter.  {Bullet points are highlighted.}

We have developed a concept we call the Cone of Probability when discussing price ranges. It is a probabilistic assessment of an asset’s potential trading range over a certain time period..  Our Cone of Probability is based on many data inputs, which you can read more about here We have refined our current S&P 500 range between 1,700-2,000.  You will notice that we include in this revision the potential for a market decline a bit over 10%.  Based on our current economic expectations we think that 1,700 represents a level where investors would find value in a decline, although stocks could overshoot this level if sentiment becomes too pessimistic.    

We think this revision is prudent given our previous views and the way markets have been trending since January.  Our theory of market seasonality, suggests the most likely time period for a decline to occur would be between now and autumn.  Of course this is simply what we believe is prudent assessment.  Markets are not obligated to follow our logic.  Markets will do what they have to do to prove the greatest amount of investors wrong!  There have been many instances where markets have simply kept advancing after a strong year like 2013.  In situations like now we tend to defer to our money flow indicators to give us an idea when more caution is warranted.


*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in Client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.

The conclusion to this letter will be published on Monday.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Spring Letter To Clients {Part III}

Probability also suggests the possibility of higher market volatility going forward.  This should not come as a surprise to our readers.  We covered volatility and the potential for a market decline on back in January   on our blog Solas!.   
“Probability analysis leads me to think that we will see at least one decline this year in the market in the 10-20% range.  It's been a long time since we've seen something like this.  Probability suggests that since normal market volatility is somewhere close to 10%, it is reasonable to suggest that we could revert to the mean at some point this year.”
 We continued this theme in our Winter Letter that we sent to you:
 “I think 2014 has the potential to be a year of growth but I would also note that the last time the market saw a real correction greater than 10% was in the spring and summer of 2011.  Probability suggests that at some point we will see markets decline in excess of that.  Given the hope investors seem to have for stocks this year and given where we stand in regards to market valuations, probability would suggest that we prepare for that sort of decline at some point this year.  Our strategy may be to build up our cash reserves as per individual client risk/reward and strategic mandates as we rebalance accounts.  As always in times like these we will have the defensive pages of the playbook nearby.”
Volatility is the price investor’s pay for liquidity.  It is the reset mechanism that often caps the financial excesses that sometimes can lead to large market declines.  We discussed what usually happens for a crash to occur over on our blog here.  Investors should expect some volatility and should accept that sometimes prices will correct.  Volatility is most often associated with market declines. Volatility can work both ways but presumably investors don’t mind when there is a sharp gain in their investments. Investors though mostly hate volatility when prices head lower, especially when the declines are swift and steep. There are strategies in our playbook that deal with trend less and more volatile periods that we use in our game plan for client accounts. One of the easiest methods to decrease volatility in a portfolio is to raise cash.  Cash is the only way to completely avoid a market decline.  Since it is unlikely that your portfolios will ever be 100% in cash when invested with us this is not complete protection against a bear market.  Put it this way.  If Warren Buffett knows of no way to completely hedge a portfolio then it is probably impossible to do.  The goal when investing is to be aware when the markets are in a lower probability environment, have enough cash that fits into your risk/reward parameters so you can ride out the decline and then be able to deploy that cash when markets begin their next advance.  
**Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in Client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Spring Letter To Clients {Part II}

Please find Part II of our Spring Letter to our clients below.  {Bullet points are highlighted}

The counter argument shown in the chart* below takes a much longer view.  It notes that markets have spent nearly fourteen years consolidating the previous bull market.  That era ended with a speculative technology bubble in 2000.  This camp points out that stocks broke out from the previous decade’s trading range last year.  They suggest this breakout presages a longer bullish run for stocks than most currently suspect.  This side can point to an economy that is still expanding, low inflation, low interest rates and a market valuation that while elevated, is not at the speculative overall levels seen at previous highs.



We think there is some merit to both arguments.  As investors of your assets, we take a longer strategic view and are therefore in the bullish camp.  Shorter term, a certain level of cautiousness may be warranted. Stocks began 2013 largely undervalued on a historical basis. Now stocks are trading at the higher end of their valuation ranges. While that does not preclude higher prices {especially in a low interest rate environment}, probability would suggest that it could limit short-term performance, at least until investors are better able to gauge the economy.

*"JP Morgan Guide to the Markets 2Q|2014", March 31,2014:  Charts are compiled by JP Morgan Asset Management and are an excellent quarterly view of different asset classes.  You can access the series here 

**Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in Client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Spring Letter to Clients {Part I}

We recently sent to our clients this letter with our market thoughts.  I will be publishing it in parts over this week and will finish up next Monday.

Market Update
The stock market is little changed five months into 2014.  Yet that apparent calm masks considerable damage that’s been done to some of the more highflying sectors since March.  Here are a few examples.  At one point the Nasdaq was down as much as -8%, Biotechnology was down -21%, Internet -15% and healthcare -8%.  Many of these once high-flying sectors have seen some recovery but they are still well off their most recent highs.  The pattern since 2009 has been for markets to post often-impressive gains in the winter and early spring months. We have not seen that pattern emerge so far this year.  We would note though the S&P 500 gained over 11% last September through December.  We think the advance in those last four months may have stolen some of this year’s gains. That move last fall by the way is roughly equal to or better than market gains for the entire years of 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2010-12.   
The market’s churning performance forms a backdrop to a fierce debate within the investment community regarding stock's future direction.  Basically there is one side that sees the market as topping out and primed for a major decline.  The other camp argues that equities are poised to begin a new secular bull market.

The bearish camp uses charts* like the one pictured above to make their argument.  This side thinks markets are mimicking the same pattern we’ve seen since the late 90s.  Here, so it goes, stocks are forming a topping pattern after a wildly successful run from 2009’s trough.   Investors subscribing to this view believe a serious correction could eventually develop.  They argue that such a decline could mimic the last two market cycles when stocks tumbled between 30-50%. This bearish argument cites high valuation and points to potential bubbles in high momentum stock in sectors such as the afore mentioned biotech or Internet spaces.
Part II tomorrow.
*"JP Morgan Guide to the Markets 2Q|2014", March 31,2014:  Charts are compiled by JP Morgan Asset Management and are an excellent quarterly view of different asset classes.  You can access the series here 

Monday, May 12, 2014

an tSionna: Gold


We commented on Friday that gold has been one of the standout performers this year after getting crushed in 2013.  Chart of the Day's {Paywall}recently took a long term view of the shiny metal.  Their conclusion below:

"With gold currently trading 30% below its September 6, 2011 peak, today's chart provides some long-term perspective on this millennium's gold market. As today's chart illustrates, the pace of bull market in gold that began back in 2001 increased over time. In late 2012, however, the parabolic trend in gold prices came to an end and a new downtrend began in earnest. While gold has traded in a flat / choppy manner over the past year, gold has just begun to pull back from resistance of its two-year downtrend channel."

*Long some GLD in certain client accounts although positions can change at any time.

Link:  Chart of the Day:  Gold.

Friday, May 09, 2014

And The Last Shall Be First

In the two charts below you will find performance charts of selected asset classes as represented by ETFs in 2013.  This is not an exhaustive list of assets but it is a list of asset classes we follow for our different investment strategies.  Chart in red on both is the S&P 500 and is there on each for comparison purposes.



Here's how those same asset classes have done in 2014 below:





Folks, this is why you need to have some diversification of different assets in your portfolios.  Last year growth was all the rage.  You can see that in the performance of investments like the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index {ONEQ}.  You strip out growth in 2013 and everything else was more or less dreck.

Note how that has changed so far in 2014.  Virtually nobody thought bonds or gold would be some of the top performing asset classes this year or that REITS would move to the front of the pile.  But there you have it and there they are.  The magic of diversification.  Nobody knows how the rest of the year will unfold but it's a pretty sure bet that if your portfolio is diversified you're feeling a lot less pain right now than if it's concentrated in growth or you're loaded up with momentum names like we showed yesterday.

*Long many of these ETFs in client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.  I will mention that we are long ONEQ in certain client portfolios since I singled it out above and we are long ETFs representative of the S&P 500 in both client and personal accounts.

Thursday, May 08, 2014

Momentum


I alluded yesterday that many in the Wall Street community are having a rough year.  One of the prime culprits is the collapse of momentum stocks.  These are high growth, high multiple and high valuation investment names that among other things powered stocks higher in 2013's last four months.  

The chart above shows the carnage in some of the more recognized names in this space over roughly the past month.  I've put up on the left for comparison the S&P 500 Equal Weighted ETF {symbol RSP}.  I've also put next to that the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF {symbol FDN}which is the closest equivalent that we own for certain clients in the momentum space, although it does not own every stock that I've shown above. FDN hasn't had a great month.  However, it stacks up pretty well when compared to the rest of this group.  The diversification provided by ETFs is another reason in my book why these make such a compelling argument for investment dollars.


**I am long both RSP & FDN for clients and in personal accounts although these positions can change at any time.  It is also likely that the stocks named above appear in various ETFs and mutual funds owned by clients and in my personal accounts.

Wednesday, May 07, 2014

Here Are A Couple Of Reasons We Use ETFs

It's not been a great year for the stock picking/mutual fund crowd.  Here's a statistic and a chart regarding this.

The quote below is from Goldman Sachs via Business Insider.com:

"Calendar year 2014 is now 1/3 behind us and for many equity portfolio managers the calendar is turning into an annus horribilis to use the phrase immortalized by Queen Elizabeth II," wrote Goldman Sachs' David Kostin in a new note to clients. "Nearly 90% of large-cap growth mutual funds, 90% of value funds, and 2/3 of core funds are trailing their style return benchmarks YTD (1%, 4%, and 2%, respectively)."

In other words, the crowd that's charging investors anywhere from 1-3% in total costs isn't keeping up with a benchmark that you can buy for about 10 basis points!

The chart via Bespoke Investment Group tells us that the Wall Street analyst crowd isn't exactly knocking the cover off the ball either.  



According to the Bespoke article, "the 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that have the most positive analyst ratings are down an average of 2.4% over the last two months, while the 50 stocks that have the most negative analyst ratings are up an average of 3.5%!  That's a pretty huge difference, and it certainly helps in part to explain why so many investors are underperforming.  Lots of fund managers and individual investors (especially) rely on the analysts at their brokerage firms for individual stock ideas.  As is evidenced by the performance data below, owning the most loved stocks has been a losing trade in the current market environment."

In other words, the crowd that's charging investors anywhere from 1-3% in total costs isn't keeping up with a benchmark that you can buy via an ETF for about 10 basis points!  

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  

Caoineadh

A combination of sad news from afar and events closer to home makes this a very sad day in our neck of the woods today.  I will be out most of the day attending to these things.

To be even a tiny part Irish means to know that in the end the world will break your heart!

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

A Case For Diversified Portfolios.

Came to this article last week via  the Reformed Broker.  My take aways from the article are listed as the key points numbered below.   You should go read the whole thing at the link below.



Monday, May 05, 2014

Things Are Getting Better: Job Creation



From Business Insider.com.  Job creation is now nearly back to pre-recession levels.  It's taken longer than the historical average and we can Certainly quibble about the quality of this jobs.  Yet let's acknowledge that this is a positive step.  Each person working is one less person relying on government for assistance.

Friday, May 02, 2014

Earnings Yield


From Dr. Ed Yardeni's Blog.  Chart shows the long term trends in earnings yield.  Earnings yield is one of the key metrics we use in our valuation metrics.  Earnings yield is the inverse of the price earnings ratio.  That is, it is the earnings divided by the price of the security in question.  The justification for using this tool is that investors often substitute earnings for dividends as theoretically earnings can be plowed back into the company being evaluated.  

While I'm just eyeballing this, I think it's fair to say that the average earnings yield on the S&P 500 has more or less traded in the 6-8% range in the past 35 years.  Yields underneath these levels are indicative of over priced markets while yields exceeding this range indicate stocks are undervalued.  Looking at the earnings yield from 2009 onwards shows that until last year stocks for the most part traded above this long term range, indicating that stocks were cheap.  The subsequent rallies during that time proved that analysis correct.  From 1997-2001, according to this chart, stocks were overvalued by this analysis and we all know how that ultimately turned out.  However, it should be noted that stocks had an incredible run through most of that period, showing that stocks can stay overvalued much longer than many investors believe possible.

The current earnings yield is about 6.4 for this year.  That is in the lower level of that 6-8% range and implies that stocks may be in the short term a bit ahead of themselves but the not out of line with historic norms.  

Link:  Yardeni:  "Fed Model, Buybacks and M&A".

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts, although positions can change at any time.

Thursday, May 01, 2014

Market Seasonality-Sell in May



So it seems that folks have been putting pencil to paper and have now discovered that there actually may be something to that old Wall Street Saw-"Sell in May and Go Away".  Barron's began the blogosphere's current infatuation with this phenomenon over the weekend with a samely titled article.  Chart of the Day gave us this visual today.  It shows the extreme performance differential between the November-April period {Blue Line} and May through October {Yellowish Line or whatever that color is!}. You can access that post here. Our long time readers and our clients know we've taken market cyclicality into our investment work and we've devoted a great deal of time and energy to it over the years.  This is what we wrote back in August of 2012.  I'm reprinting the whole thing below:

"We are particularly mindful of the impact that market seasonality can have this time of year. Basically there are seasonal variations or patterns that come into play in most years. The study of these bullish and bearish phases means that we accept that stocks at some point will experience a sell off between 8-20%. This is simply the normal course of how markets behave in most years as measured by money flows. While market declines can come at any time, statistically stocks are most prone to major sell offs in between the months of March and October.

One of the reasons we believe this pattern works is the philosophy behind how institutional money is invested. Institutional money is a generic term for organizations such as pension plans and large asset managers such as mutual funds. It is managed on a relative basis usually tied to a specific benchmark. By relative basis I mean as an example in a market that loses ten percent, institutional accounts that go down only 8% are said to have outperformed their peer group. That influences how their portfolios are set up. Institutions generally start a year with similar economic and valuation expectations for stocks.

Institutions have a very strong incentive to be heavily invested in the early months of a new year. They are afraid to fall too far behind their benchmarks. Their thinking is similar to that of a baseball manager at the beginning of a long season. The manager knows you don't win a pennant in April but you can lose one during that time. As the year progresses and in particular if stocks have advanced in the first few months, equities begin to look less attractive on year end expectations. Stocks will either need unexpected positive news {i.e. better than expected earnings news or higher economic forecasts for example} or prices will begin to stall out. If companies don't excessively move the needle higher on earnings and sales going forward than investors, especially those with a shorter-term horizon may begin to lock in their profits.

Stocks will fall of their own weight unless there are marginal new bidders for their shares. Summer is typically a down period for Wall Street as the news flow dries up {unless it’s bad news. It is amazing how many international crises begin in the late summer. Both World Wars, the Korean War, 9/11, the First Gulf War and the 2008-banking crisis are examples of this.} Summer is also when analysts begin to fine-tune their expectations for stock prices as clarity begins to enter the picture about year end economic activity. Stocks will also begin to discount any lower revisions or negative economic news during this period of seasonal weakness. Once this discounting process is completed stocks will usually begin to rally sometime in autumn. The cynical amongst us also know that the only print that matters for most money managers is the one shown when the market closes on December 31st. To put it simply Wall Street wants to get paid. So there is a strong incentive to boost share prices during the 4th quarter of the year. 

Stocks have ample reason to trend listlessly and perhaps decline a bit from here into the fall.  We are mindful of the problems that are out there and have our defensive strategies ready just in case they come to realization.  But stocks are cheap on a valuation basis based on what we know today.  While mindful of the fact that they could become cheaper still, the potential for earnings clarity as the year progresses, better than looked for economic growth and any resolution to the European situation have the potential to set stocks up for better returns later in the year."

Two last thoughts.  That Barron's article I mentioned above lists five sectors via Fidelity select sector funds that do as well in summer as winter.  These are in terms of sectors: consumer staples, leisure, multimedia, retailing and utilities.  Folks, these are not the sectors from which bull markets are made.  Also I'd note that markets this year are bucking their normal pattern which is to bolt out of the gate with a strong first quarter and then struggle to maintain those gains or give them all up plus more as the warmer months wear on.  Here's an alternative scenario since everybody is focusing on the historically static performance in the warmer months. Since consensus seems to be that stocks flop a bit going forward and since everybody's focused on this, it could be argued that stocks will stage an unlooked for and unexpected rally.  Probability suggests this isn't the most likely scenario.  More importantly the Wall Street crowd is pretty resigned to a period now where we basically go nowhere for a bit. So let's  remember that stocks will do what they have to do to prove the most amount of people wrong and markets often trade in the direction that causes the most pain.  What if the direction of the most pain is to trade higher?  Not saying this is going to happen but it's worth tucking away in the small corners of the brain.  As always, we'll defer to our indicators.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts although positions can chang at any time.