Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Thoughts {End Of The Month Edition}

Behold the perils of owing individual growth or momentum stocks when they disappoint.  See Facebook below.  A 20% plunge in a day after a poor quarter, lousy forward guidance and a disastrous earnings conference call.


Chart is from Tradingview.com.

Stocks are rebounding today after a general schmessing amongst growth names the past few days.  Most of that came about from poor forward guidance from several giant tech companies.  It is hard to tell whether what we're seeing today is investors scooping up beaten down shares or end of the month window dressing.  I'll maintain my stance that the market has the potential to see a bit of a rougher phase until sometime in the fall.  To that end I'll point out that stocks have hit a bit of wall as they've approached their previous highs set last winter.   

Also note that August is the worst performing month of the year since 1988.  For why that might be go back and read my numerous posts on market seasonality.

Here's the opposite view from Blackrock who will give you two reasons why volatility can remain low.

Back later this week.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Thoughts {07.25.18}


Stocks have quietly bled higher over the past month.  Major indices are logging gains so far in July probably around 3-5%.  Stocks are close to testing their highs made back in January.   All of that takes nothing away from my belief that there is a higher probability that we could be in for a rougher patch over the next few months.  See the post directly below this for my reasoning on this.  


Even if we see a more volatile trading environment in the weeks or months ahead, that shouldn't be construed as a change in my longer term thinking.  I have laid out in previous letters why the technological and secular changing I am seeing makes me bullish on the economy and on stocks over the coming years.  Nothing right now is changing my assumption on that.  The US economy is hitting on all cylinders right now and ultimately positive economics, fundamentals and earnings are what will drive stocks in the long run.  Over the next few months, if we do see a more uncertain period, it should be taken only as a corrective period within the confines of a long duration secular bull market.

Stocks are not the only thing that is rising.  Interest rates have quietly over the past month moved higher as well.  A 10-year treasury right now will yield you 2.95%.  Certain money markets now yield around 1%.  At some point do higher yields become competitive versus stocks?  We don't seem to be there yet but this is something that bears paying attention to.

Speaking again of the markets I'd also like to point out that market breath stinks.  By that I mean the percentage of stocks participating in the rising market continues to narrow.  Here are a few tidbits about breadth that  Gluskin Sheff's chief economist and noted market commentator David Rosenberg shared with us recently



  1. Strip out the 17% ($4 tln of market cap!) of the market that is Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet, and the market has barely budged this year. This is the most concentrated market since the dotcoms; before that the Nifty Fifty. Heed Rule #7.
  2. Memo to the shills out there as the Nasdaq 100 hits a fresh high: Bob Farrell's Rule #7 – “Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.”
  3. What a see-saw this year. Global MSCI flat. Median SPX stock flat. Half the S&P 500 down 10% or more below the peak. And volatility up 45%. The market is telling us something - as in, transitioning away from the long bull run.


Returns in the markets are being masked by a few strong sectors.  I am not in the same camp as Mr. Rosenberg about transitioning away from a long bull market but the narrowing breadth is worrisome to many and we will see how long this sort of affair can hold up.

Back Friday.



Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Chart Talk {07.17.18}


One of the reasons I've always wanted to write on this blog is that I thought it would be helpful and fair to clients for there to be some record of what I'd been saying.  Whether close to being correct or wrong, I think it helps that people can go back and see what I've been saying in both good and bad times about topics I think interest my clients.  Besides investing is a humbling game and the best lessons are the ones where your analysis was not correct or not as correct as perhaps you would have liked.  Being able to go back and revisit an incorrect call hopefully helps one become better at investing in the future.

Today I want to return to an article I wrote a few months ago.   Back in February I published a post that I called "The Highest Probability Scenario For the Rest of the Year".  The chart featured above was in that post.  Back then we were taking a look at different possibilities for stocks given the nearly 10% correction we'd seen at that time.  As the article states the above illustrated scenario was the one that I thought carried the highest probability of occurring the rest of 2018.  I estimated the probability of us seeing something close to this pattern back then was between 45-70%.  This is part of what I said back in February on how I thought 2018 might potentially unfold.  

Stocks spend much of the year consolidating their gains from the past two years.  The positives of underlying economic growth we are seeing and gains from the tax cuts runs into the worries of higher stock valuations, higher interest rates and higher inflation.  Also as the year ages we start adding political risk into the equation from the upcoming mid-term congressional elections.  In this scenario, stocks spend a better part of the spring finding a level of equilibrium from which they can again start to advance.  Markets then manage a stair step rally into early summer that potentially takes us back to the old highs set in January.  From there markets proceed to give most or all of that rally back, potentially retesting the spring lows.  Once we get into the fall and once the outcome of the elections are priced into stocks there is a possibility we again attack the old highs from January.  Under this scenario we see stocks showing price appreciation of 7-10% this year.  Now obviously it is unlikely the year will pan out exactly as I've drawn the lines.  They are a hypothetical general illustration.  Still it seems there is a very high probability that a scenario similar to what we've shown above is what we'll have seen once 2018 winds down. 


That second chart directly above is an updated version of the S&P 500 from February. Both are on a weekly time frame for longer term comparison.  I've also redrawn the lines as closely approximating what I'd originally noted last winter.  While not exactly perfect you can see we've followed pretty closely the pattern I laid out back then.  Now of course all of us are more interested in what might come next rather than what's already occurred.  If we knew for sure what the future holds than investing would be easy.  Instead on any given day we are looking into a crystal ball that is at best opaque.  What I would note is that many of the factors we sited back last winter are still with us today.  Valuation is less of a concern because corporate earnings continue to be stellar.  However,  interest rates are higher and inflation may be picking up if certain indicators are factored in.  Also we are now in the thick of the summer season for the Wall Street crowd and you know what I think about that.  Finally, the clock keeps ticking on the countdown to this fall's elections. President Trump continues to brawl with the Washington political establishment, progressives and most of the news media.  That fight will be carried over in the fight for control of the House and the Senate in November.  I don't believe political risk is much of a factor yet in stocks but it has the potential to become more of a possibility as we close in on the upcoming elections.  Finally I'd note that traditionally we are entering the weakest period of the year for stocks.

Now I have no idea where stocks are headed in the short run.  If I'm going to point out some potential headwinds I also need to note that the US economy is hitting on all cylinders right now and ultimately positive economics, fundamentals and earnings are what will drive stocks in the long run.  For all I know stock prices could quietly trend higher in the months ahead as positive economic news trumps all other concerns.  If I had to bet on what is the higher probability scenario over the next 12-18 months it would still be for higher stock prices.  However, I think if we only talk about the positives then we are not giving you an accurate or fair look into what could possibly occur in the next few months.  The scenario I'm discussing here may not happen or it might not look like I've laid it out above but you know it is a possibility and so far this year it's been pretty spot on target.

Finally back in February we ended that article with this below:

Some of you might find this analysis a bit of a come down and such an environment would look poor compared to 2017.  However, keep in mind we had an explosive move at the beginning of the year.  We were up about 6% in most markets in January.  That sort of parabolic rise is simply unsustainable longer term.  Also individuals in modern times divide time periods mostly into years.  A better way to measure stock markets is in cycles.  If you look a bit further out and start with the last downdraft we had in stocks in early 2016 then you'll see we've been up more than 50% since then.  Markets viewed this way show a much more positive light.

Markets move in fits and starts.  Like a river they ebb and flow not only with the seasons but also with all the millions of data inputs that find their way into them each day.  We have seen a substantial move in stocks over the past 17 months.  An investor who had bought the S&P 500 ETF, SPY on the close of February 11, 2016  would have paid $182.86 per share and would have hit almost the cyclical bottom for this current move up.  As of yesterday's close he or she could have cashed in that trade for a price of $279.34, a gain of nearly 53% with dividends not factored in.  We may or may not hit a rough patch over the next few months but if we do, and based on what we currently can see on the economic horizon, it should be viewed within the normal patterns of a secular bull market.  Nothing on the horizon so far is changing my view on that.

Both charts are from TradingView.com although the annotations are mine.  Also this will be the only post this week as I'm out and about and also taking a few days of R&R on the back end  We'll be back with regular summer posting next week.

Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Short S&P 500 in a personal account as part of a separate individual strategy.


Friday, July 13, 2018

Chart Talk {Rising Interest Rates}



Interest rates are up.  Anybody who's tried to borrow money whether its for a car, business loan or mortgage is paying more to access money these days.  How dramatic that rise has been has been illustrated by Pension Partner's Charlie Bilello.  Charlie did this graph on July 10th.  Here's what he noted about the 3-month Treasury bill then by using historical comparisons.

"3-Month Treasury Bill Yield... Jul '09: 0.17% Jul '10: 0.17% Jul '11: 0.02% Jul '12: 0.10% Jul '13: 0.04% Jul '14: 0.02% Jul '15: 0.01% Jul '16: 0.28% Jul '17: 1.06% Today {July 10th}; 1.99% (10-Yr high)"

And it's likely that interest rates aren't yet done going up at least if you listen to what the Federal Reserve keeps saying.  Stay tuned...

Back Tuesday next week.  By-the-way, Mr. Bilello is doing some of the best analytical work I'm seeing these days.  You can see all his posts including the one I'm referencing above and follow him on Twitter here.

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

The Rule of 72

The "Rule of 72" is a simple investment rule that everybody should learn.  Basically it states that you take an proposed constant interest rate and divide that into the number 72 and it will give you a rough idea of how long it will take to double your money.  As an example dividing a 10% rate of return into 72 says you will double your money every 7.2 years.  Earlier in the week we introduced you to the folks over at "Napkin Finance" who also recently did a visual on this same subject.  As such, I'm including it as well as a link to their page explaining this subject below.



Thursday, July 05, 2018

And Speaking OF Compound Interest.....

We talked last week about the power of compounding in both life and investing.  Now a buddy of mine sent me a link to a new website called "Napkin Finance" that has an interesting visual on the same subject.  The premise of the site is to visualize, clarify and simplify, everyday financial decisions.   They do this by illustrating as if they were presenting on the back of a napkin, hence the name of the site.  Below is their napkin on compound interest. 



And here is the link to their page on this subject.

Back early next week.

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

Fourth of July


Happy 4th of July America!  Here's a large Huzzah for all the men and women who've served over the years in our armed services who have continued to make this day possible.  God Bless to you all.  

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Some Headwinds?

I briefly mentioned in my last post that I think we all need to consider the possibility of some short term headwinds that seem to be mounting in the markets.  I think we need to consider the possibility that over the next few months we are transitioning into a market environment that has the potential to be less friendly for stocks.  I'll outline my thinking below.  

First let's briefly discuss some of the things that are worrying the markets right now. The US economy right now is the envy of the world.  2nd quarter GDP growth could reach nearly 4% according to many economists. However, investors are worried about a slowing worldwide economy and a stronger dollar, generated by rising US interest rates.  Asia, especially China, has seen slower growth as has Europe and emerging market economies. If I am right these will start to sort themselves out later in the year but there is no denying that right now this slowdown has investors concerned.

International trade dislocations are perhaps weighing more heavily on markets than the threat of slowing international economies.  It does not likely help that the Administration's approach to this seems to have little coherence.  What  is announced as policy one day by some member of the President's team is seemingly walked back the next by another official.  Nevertheless it is becoming apparent to markets that the Trump Administration is intent on renegotiating wide swaths of America's trade agreements and is very willing to use the carrot of tariffs imposed on both friends and foes to get what it wants.  Our trading partners are not going to take this lying down and have announced tariffs of their own on goods.  We will see whether this is only bluster as everybody sits down at the table or whether we are on the verge of something more serious.  Clearly though the threat of a trade war has spooked investors.

Here are two other factors that could make for some rough going as summer progresses into the fall.  The first is our often discussed market seasonality.  So far this year stocks have been following our thesis on this rather well.  We saw a rally at the beginning of the year, a sell-off, then a recovery in share prices going into the early summer, followed by a current period of weakness.  If this would hold up closer to the normal pattern we could see one more spike higher before a potential pick-up in volatility.  Of course there is no guarantee this will occur even if we've been close to the pattern most of the year.  It is something to pay attention to as the warmer weather progresses.  August is a dead period for the markets so any additional piece of bad news could have a more heightened negative impact than some might suspect.

The other issue that is likely going to start impacting markets at some point will be the upcoming elections.   Investors have so far not paid much attention to this as November is a long way off right now.  I think there is the potential for the retirement of Justice Kennedy and the President's ability to pick in a very short period of time a 2nd Supreme Court Justice may mean that the elections come into focus earlier than might normally be expected.  Markets could become more volatile if investors perceive a more progressive and less business friendly Congress might be sworn in next January.

As I said last week,  I think investors should take the time and opportunity that a slow period such as this holiday week may afford to go over their portfolios and review their risk profile.  For some a more defensive profile may be warranted. I want to stress that I'm still quite bullish longer term.  I think the US economy is humming along with solid growth.  I think that growth plus the current pace of innovation should provide a foundation for markets at some point absent some unlooked for event. I also think valuations on stocks are fair right now with the exception of certain overheated sectors.  Finally, I also think that currently we are oversold enough so that probability would suggest some sort of short term rally could occur over the next few weeks. Having said that I think the potential for more volatility in the coming weeks and months should not be ignored and for some a more defensive posture might be warranted.