Thoughts {09.08.16}

Futures are pointing to a flattish open after the ECB leaves their interest rates unchanged.  You have to go back over 40 days now or the middle of July to find a market move over 1%.  What gets us out of this range is hard to guess at this point.  Something will make us move though.  A catalyst could be anything that changes the investment world's consensus that Mrs. Clinton will be our next President.

This is not a political blog.  You can find scores of those on the internet.  When we talk about politics here it is solely in the context of how these events will effect the markets. and investment  My own personal political views aren't important in terms of trying to make money for my clients and I strive to keep those out of any comments I make regarding the elections on this blog.  That said understanding who controls the government's pursestrings after this year will give us some clue on economic policy which will ultimately affect the stock market.  That's why it's important to pay attention to the political tea leaves.

I still believe it is possible next year for whoever is President to strike some sort of "Grand Bargain" on a host of issues; taxes, economic policy immigration, more military spending, and a big infrastructure buildout.  I think the stock market smells this and that's why prices have held on to the gains we've made so far this year.

Having said that, I do think there's the possibility that volatility returns at some point prior to the election.  We'll talk more about volatility in the next few weeks.  Next week we're going to take a look at a series of charts.

One final thing.  Ignore the pundits who will proclaim that the country will be ruined by whoever becomes President.  History has pretty much proven that the US is bigger than its President.

Back Monday.