Tuesday, September 06, 2016

Time To Kick The Sand Out Of The Shoes.

Years ago when I worked for a certain brokerage firm, the head of our division got on the squawk box {Yes that's where CNBC got the name} and gave a speech each Tuesday after Labor Day to the troops all over the country.  It was always referred to as the "Time to Kick the Sand Out of the Shoes" speech because he aways made that comment somewhere in his talk.  The message was simple.  Summer's over.  Time to get back to work.

In the wheel of the year under which Wall Street marks time, July and August are the only periods when making money takes a backseat to more leisurely pursuits.   Folks in the investment class, particularly those out east, tend to be more interested in being at the beach or in the mountains than in front of their screens.  It's one of the reasons that August can sometimes be volatile.  Events come up and the "A" team is away.    This August of course we had none of that.  There wasn't a single day during the month when the markets had more than a 1% move.  That lack of volatility is rare.  

Now though summer is over.  September and early October with all their historical ugly ghosts looms.  After that the mad dash to show positive numbers for the clients who pay Wall Street's bills.  There's going to be a lot of dashing this year as many, including much of the hedge fund community, are way behind in terms of performance.  As we turn towards colder weather here in the north, here's  a partial list of what the investment community is going to be watching:

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates when they next meet in September.  If they don't raise them at that meeting, will they do so in December.

Can OPEC get it's act together and find a way to trim production.

September 26, October 9 and October 19th are the three presidential debates.  The lone debate among the Vice-Presidential candidates will be October 4th.

US Presidential elections on November 8th.

What will be the political and economic implications of Great Britain's vote earlier in the summer to leave the EU?

Any Black Swan that comes over the transom.

That's the main list.  Others could come up.  Guess it's time to kick the sand out of the shoes!