Election Probabilities

This is an electoral college map from RealClearPolitics.com showing the current state of the Presidential election.  The map breaks down the most recent polling data out of the states and shows what would be the most likely outcome of the election if it was held around now.  I say "around now" because it is likely that some of the data is a few days to perhaps a week old.  The map runs the gamut of states solidly behind either Clinton or Trump, to those leaning towards a particular candidate to those that are toss-up states.  When you look at the map you can see the daunting task ahead of Mr. Trump and why probability suggests it is much more unlikely that he will become our next President.

Mrs. Clinton begins the day with 262 electoral votes likely to vote her way in the upcoming election*.  There will be noises over the next two months about one or two of these states in the "Leaning Clinton" column perhaps voting the other way, but for the most part at this point she is probably locked into the 240-250 electoral vote range.  Remember you need 270 electoral votes to become President.  In the same vein, Mr. Trump begins the day with around 154 electoral votes.  That leaves 122 toss up electoral votes in 10 states up for grabs.  Lets assume that a couple of these states end up voting along historical lines.  In that case lets assume Georgia, Arizona and Missouri end up voting for Trump.  That gives him 191 electoral votes.  Now there are 7 states with 85 votes still up for grabs.  The problem for Trump is that with the exception of a few smaller states {i.e. maybe Nevada, Iowa or that split vote up in Maine} he has to run the table in order to win!  Assuming the polling data is correct, Mrs. Clinton just needs a few of these states to break her way in order to be the next President.  All she needs right now is a few of these toss-up states to return to their most recent voting patterns and she wins.  Iowa and Wisconsin voting according to trend puts her over the top based on the map above.  Now you get a picture of the daunting task ahead for Trump.  He either has to find a way to pick off some of these "leaning Clinton" states or find a way to win almost everything that's up for grabs.  This math is largely why Wall Street's expectation is of a Clinton victory.

Don't shoot the messenger if you're a Trump supporter.  I'm only telling you what the math says.  If you're all in for Mrs. Clinton then know that there's a long way till the elections and a lot can change in two month's time.  I'm telling you how things stand today, not where they may be in two months.  While I think the math is troublesome for Trump, I think he has a legitimate shot to change this landscape if he can score a decisive victory in the upcoming debates.  I think that is his one chance to change the election and electoral dynamic.   The only other thing that could possibly change this math is an unlooked for event that comes over the transom that effects the national consciousness enough to change the trajectory of the election.

Oh and I don't care about anybody's political beliefs and I'm not trying to inject my own views into my blog.  Again, I'm going by the math and I care about the math by how it will impact the markets and my investments for my clients. 

We'll visit this map again a few times up to election day.

Back Tuesday and a happy Labor Day holiday to all.  Hard to believe that summer is over!

*There is what I think an error in the map above.  There are no columns showing the most solid Clinton or Trump states.   Also note that Maine and Nebraska are not winner take all states for the electoral college but allocate their electors by popular vote.