Winter 2021: It Was A Bad Time

By Christopher R. English, President of Lumen Capital Management, LLC            

Perhaps nobody captured the mood of 2020 better than the singer/songwriter Taylor Swift. Suffice it to say, using Ms. Swift’s own words, 2020 was a “bad, bad time.” Let’s dive into the details and look at what happened.

The Stock Market Reality

The world was knocked off its axis by the novel COVID-19. As if that wasn’t bad enough, as the extent of the impact of the virus began to be appreciated back in the spring, both the markets and the economy contracted at an unprecedented rate. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the S&P 500 declined by nearly 35%. (1) Thankfully, we then experienced a rapid market recovery as government stimulus, credit aid by the Federal Reserve, and remediation strategies began to take hold in the following months. Back in March 2020, I wrote that value was being created in the markets. While I thought the news cycle would continue to be grim, I also thought this was a good time to buy attractive assets that had been priced down to unreasonable levels. That proved to be the correct strategy as markets rebounded in the coming months and erased much of their earlier losses. The major averages ended the year all in the green.

Yet while the major averages ended higher, the same cannot be said of all stocks. There’s been no other time in my investment career (now spanning 35 years) where I’ve seen such a distinction between stock winners and losers. Early on in the pandemic, investors gravitated toward equities that benefited from people isolating in their homes, such as technology, certain consumer stocks, and healthcare. Everything else, not so much. The pandemic destroyed the economy in a similar way that a woodland fire devours a forest. Animals that needed their previous habitat to survive disappear, but eventually, species that can adapt to this new environment colonize it and change the landscape. Life returns, although perhaps in a different form or by different species than were there before, and the cycle renews itself. 

For example, the Chernobyl nuclear disaster created a wide area around the former reactor that was uninhabitable to humans, but, surprisingly, wildlife has thrived. If you were in a business that relied on many forms of discretionary spending, then you were hit by a Chernobyl-like event last year. Restaurants have struggled to survive. Many movie theaters probably won’t. Cruise ships and airlines are on life support. The impact down the supply chain when this happens ripples through the economy as well. When a theme park shuts down, it not only impacts the employees but also the businesses that generate revenue by being near the park or supplying resources the park needs.   

Winners And Losers

This same trend has been reflected in U.S. equities, although not in major U.S. indices, which all finished the year with nearly double-digit returns and, in some cases, substantially higher returns. However, many companies are still trading below their 2019 highs. This doesn’t necessarily show up when you look at financial headlines because major market indices like the S&P 500 are weighted by their market capitalization. (2) Currently, the market cap weighting of the top 10 stocks in that index approaches 30%. In order of size, the top five companies are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet (Google). (3)  These five companies make up 22% of that index’s market capitalization. (4) Another way of looking at this is that these same top five stocks carry as much weight in the index as the bottom 370 companies. While each has strong fundamental strengths in their businesses, each was also at the right place and right time regarding the virus. While these specific companies have helped propel these indices higher, they have also masked much of the rest of the market’s hard times. Many companies with traditional business lines, so-called value stocks, were up about 4% on average for the year. 

There are many growth and value-oriented companies that have struggled because they’ve been in the wrong parts of the market due to the virus, not because there is anything fundamentally wrong longer term with their underlying businesses. Unfortunately, some businesses won’t recover. For example, we already had too much retail before the virus hit. But the paring down of stores is an acceleration of a trend that was already in place. Department stores were in trouble long before the virus hit. Many other industries are just trying to survive until things get better. I often said last year that I believe we’re going to see substantial economic recovery in 2021. Here’s why I still think that: the combination of vaccines, better treatments for those already infected, more testing, human adaptation, and a more coordinated response by the Federal Government, plus pent-up demand should be an explosive element to growth at some point later in the year.  

Pent-Up Demand

Right now the focus is rightly on devoting many resources to those currently experiencing hardship, and there’s a valid argument about whether we’re doing enough to help these folks. But on the other side, pent-up demand is not discussed enough. You also don’t read much about the build-up in savings from Americans that still have jobs, have been receiving benefit checks such as Social Security, or who received money under the CARES Act. Much of this has gone into savings because many of the things we spend money on, from sporting events to vacations and dinners out, went away. What happens as things start to open up and there’s all this cash burning a hole in people’s pockets? Well, I think it might look like the years after World War II. The country went on a war economy back in 1941 with the government funding a massive increase in infrastructure and defense spending. People finally had jobs after the Great Depression but didn’t have many ways to spend their new wages because of rationing related to the war. But the war ended and the soldiers came home and began spending all that back pay. The economy had a few rough years initially as we transferred back to a civilian economy, but all that saved cash eventually found a home in investment and consumer spending. Between 1946 and 1966, the U.S. economy grew at about a 3.5% clip. We had some years back then with over 6% GDP growth. Similarly, there’s now at least a year of pent-up spending that is going to be addressed in a relatively short period of time, economically speaking.  

Think about the family last year that canceled a trip to Disney World and still has the financial wherewithal to go. Well, Disney World is still there. Florida didn’t go away. If your favorite restaurant has survived on takeout, then at some point it’s going to start welcoming patrons back. Or if, unfortunately, it became a casualty of the virus, it’s likely that somebody new will take over the old space. There’s always a new entrepreneur willing to take a chance on a restaurant sitting in a prime location. That restaurant then starts hiring back the servers, cooks, bartenders, busboys, etc. Those employees don’t care where they work in the business as long as they’re getting paid. The point is that restaurants will adapt. Those that can’t will die, but something new will likely take their place. There will still be profits in feeding people. Many other businesses are also adapting.    

Many of these old economy companies are represented by stocks that have continued to pay their dividends, which overflows into the exchange-traded fund (ETF) space where we participate. It is highly probable that many of these securities, as well as the ETFs that hold them, are still undervalued and have the potential for above-average total returns as the economy recovers this year. I invest money using investment strategies that utilize ETFs. I believe you own ETFs for three purposes: capital appreciation, dividends, and expected future dividend increases. 2020 put much of this potential on hold, but assuming the virus becomes a manageable event, then it is highly probable these growth characteristics could resume next year. 

Some Perspective

Nothing I’ve written today is meant to minimize the economic hardship many have experienced from the pandemic, and nobody should discount the human cost in lives. Over 22 million Americans are currently infected, and over 375,000 have now officially died from COVID-19. (5) That’s like having a city nearly the size of Cleveland wiped out.* While there is now a vaccine, the virus is currently on a path to kill perhaps a half million of us. Nothing in the modern world has prepared us for this experience. There is no playbook on how to invest or navigate a global pandemic. I have cautioned you in the past and will say again that while I believe we’ve turned a corner, the news will continue to be grim for the next few months. But assuming we’re on the winning track versus COVID-19, I believe prospects continue to be economically brighter for 2021.  

Finally, after the events of the past few weeks, I even more firmly believe there is more that unites our country than divides us. A review of the election results has shown me that the center held better than most imagine. I especially believe that after watching good people of both parties push back against President Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the election. As to the reprehensible acts seen on January 6th, I will state that it is likely that 300 million of us were horrified by what we were watching. I hope that if there’s any good that comes from that day, it will be the realization that democracy has shown itself to be a resilient thing and one worth saving. On that, I believe both the right and the left will agree.

Times are tough, but we are resilient, and with each other’s help, we will get through it! I am here for you. Call my office at 312.953.8825 or email us at lumencapital@hotmail.com. 

About Chris

Christopher R. English is the President and founder of Lumen Capital Management, LLC-a Registered Investment Advisor regulated by the State of Illinois. A copy of our ADV Part II is available upon request. We manage portfolios for investors, developing customized portfolios that reflect a client’s unique risk/reward parameters. We also manage a private partnership currently closed to outside investors. Mr. English has over three decades of experience working with individuals, families, businesses, and foundations. Based in the greater Chicago area, he serves clients throughout Illinois, as well as Florida, Massachusetts, California, Indiana, and other states. To schedule a complimentary portfolio review, contact Chris today by calling 312.953.8825 or emailing him at lumencapital@hotmail.com.

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(1) https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/larry-fink-coronavirus-low-last-month-may-have-been-the-market-bottom.html

(2) Currently, long indices related to the S&P 500 in both clients and personal accounts

(3) Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and Alphabet {Google} and the Walt Disney Company are component parts of indices owned by clients and in personal accounts.

(4) Guide to the Markets, 12.31.2020.  JP Morgan and Co.

(5) https://www.cgtn.com/special/Global-COVID-19-cases-top-19-7-million-U-S-cases-exceed-5-million.html

*An update on mortality under Covid-19 and population comparisons.  As of today, 02.01.21, the US has now seen over 26 million cases of Covid-19 with over  441,000 deaths.  That is now the equivalent of losing all of Oakland, CA.  If the current trajectory of deaths is maintained over the next month we are on pace to lose city population equivalents in the following order:  Miami, FL {462,000}, Raleigh, NC {474,000}, Kansas City, MO {495,000}, Atlanta, GA {506,000} and Sacramento, CA {513,000}.  Census data on city populations comes from Wikipedia.         

Three Things Revisited

Back on September 14th I posted an article called "Three Things" which was a review of consensus opinion at that time.   What I wanted to do back then was have my readers consider what the alternatives might be to the prevailing views of the moment.  This week I thought I'd look back on that column and see how I did versus popular thought.  I'll also try and be fair on what percentage of accuracy I achieved on each view.  My updates to each point are in green.  

Here are three things everybody seems to know right now.

1.  The election is going to be a disaster.  No way we're going to know who wins on election night and the whole thing is going to devolve into a repeat of Bush v Gore back in 2000.  Besides the President is supposedly laying the groundwork for a massive challenge to practically every state he loses if the results don't go his way.

Could be....but....

If the election were held today Mr. Biden would likely win with more than 300 electoral votes.  He only needs 270.  What's more he's leading in practically all the swing states that he'll need to win in order to to capture the election.  In many of those states the lead has grown in the past few weeks.  Now the election isn't today and this isn't a political commercial.  It's taking a look at the data as it stands right now.  Certainly things can change in the next seven weeks.  For one thing the debates could go poorly for Mr. Biden.  But assuming they don't then the numbers currently don't look in the President's favor.  If he loses by what the numbers currently indicate then it would be hard for him to claim the election was either rigged or stolen.  Certainly it would be hard for him to make a convincing argument for that beyond his base.  Time will tell.

Well.....the election was almost a disaster but in the end Mr. Biden prevailed.  We won't rehash here what happened after we voted except to say that it was a closely held thing, full of much drama, court challenges and other unprecedented events.  Mr. Biden won with 306 electoral votes.  He won all the swing states with the exception of Florida and Ohio.  It was Mr. Trump who stumbled badly in the debates and it is highly probable that there are very few people beyond Mr. Trump's base that believes the election was either rigged or stolen.  However, there is a sizable majority of his voters who feel that way.  At the  moment it is unclear what awaits Mr. Trump on legal fronts and with his 2nd impeachment trial.  

Score: 90% accurate.

2.  We are in for another miserable fall/winter/spring because of the virus.  Things are going to look just like they did back in March and April.

Could be....but....

I think the virus is here to stay.  Even if we get a vaccine I don't think there's any hope of completely eradicating it.  Instead I think eventually it will be more on par with the flu.  Maybe not this winter but in future years.  In the meantime while I don't think this year will look like a normal winter season, I don't think it will be as bad as last year.  Three quick reasons for that.  First, a vaccine is coming.  Maybe not till sometime this winter but something will be on the market by spring I think.  2nd, we have better therapeutics today than when this thing first hit.  We know more today than we did last March and we'll know more in six months than we know today.  Better therapeutics means a better chance of you not dying or potentially getting really ill.  3.  Mass testing is coming.  I'll have more to say on each of these in a future post but just understand that these three along with human adaption likely means that while life won't seem like it's back to normal come the winter, it will likely be better than last year.  Again time will tell.

Too soon to tell about this winter versus last.  In some ways we may be worse off if only because we have more months to be locked up and the death tolls are higher.  Vaccination is coming, but at a slower pace than many expected back in the fall.  Therapeutics are definitely improving as is testing.  

Score:  Incomplete but so far 60% accurate.

3.  The stock market is overvalued and must have a major correction.

Could be...but....

There are a few sectors of the market that are overvalued by traditional metrics but much of the market, as the economy, is still significantly lower than where it began the year.  One could argue that for the main street economy we are more likely approaching the point in a recessionary cycle where things are just starting to turn positive.  If that's the case then these sectors are possibly the next leaders in the markets even if the high flyers take a breather. 

The market as measured by major indices is significantly higher than when this original post ran.  What has started to outperform since the beginning of this year are many of the sectors in the market that were heavily impacted by the virus.  While some of the stocks that outperformed last year have marched in place or struggled since the fall, it has in many instances been these other sectors that have taken up the slack in the indices.  In terms of valuation, I'll stick by my call back then that we're more towards the beginning of an economic recovery than its later stages.  If so then one can make the argument that we might not be as overvalued as some popular gauges of these things might suggest.

Score: Incomplete but so far 85% accurate.

Anyway maybe we'll check back on this column at a later date to see how I'm doing on points 2 and 3. 

A Change In Administrations

So today we change Administrations.  It is interesting to me that when you look in aggregate Democratic administrations have tended to see better market returns in the past 60 or so years than Republicans.  Of course Presidents have sometimes only marginal impact on the economy and not all of it's gains or losses are their doing.  Clinton was the beneficiary of a wonderful stew of technological advances that came to fruition when he was President and not all of the 2007-09 depression can be laid on the feet of George W. Bush.  However, as we close the books on the Trump years I will repeat what I've said countless times on this blog that things have steadily been getting better in this country for a long period of time.  The disruption and despair by the pandemic shouldn't obscure that fact.  I am happy to debate any time that things have gotten better for most people over time because the data is on my side.  We can all have an honest discussion on how much of that credit any President deserves and we can have an honest debate on the quality of the American economy today.   But I'll go with the data and on so many fronts we're doing better.  I believe we'll start to see this rapidly again as more people get vaccinated.

Now I would like to say something about how I address politics on this blog.  I am amused by the folks who seem to think I was either for or against a particular candidate in the last election.  Like most Americans I have political views.  I believe my views are like most Americans somewhere between right and left.  To paraphrase former President Obama my politics runs more towards purple than any deep shade of red or blue.  However,  I am old enough now to know that others might not feel that way about how I see the political world.   Because I am writing a blog about the markets, I strive as much as humanly possible to keep those beliefs out of my writing.  I talk about the political arena solely to explain how I perceive events or political escapades or world realities will impact market returns.   It is not my intention to try to influence anybody on how to vote or to influence their politics.  However, markets and policy as it comes out of Washington are intwined and so there will be times when I discuss each.  Since we have an Executive Branch that is largely responsible for this policy I will occasionally discuss that person and their impact on events.  That is all I try to do when discussing any President or any political event.

Finally I would say something about today's inauguration.  Whatever faults the United States has, and God help us we as imperfect beings have many, today an incredible thing will happen.  Precisely at noon in Washington DC the most powerful man in the world will transfer that power, that imperium, to the victor of last November's election.  Although the President stands accused by many for the events that have unfolded this month, today Mr. Trump will not call out the vast resources of the Federal Government in order to remain in power.  The military will stay in its barracks or continue fighting our wars or do the job of protecting its new Commander-in-Chief.  Regardless of what one thinks about Joe Biden, today at noon he will become our President.  This transfer of power is one of the truly remarkable gifts of our Republic.  Even though mandated by the Constitution, this precedent of a peaceful transfer is a gift to us from none other than George Washington himself.  It has been followed in both peace and war by every President since.  Today we will see a continuation of a process and institution as old as the country itself.

Whether you are a staunch Trump supporter or voted for Mr. Biden, or whether you are as the many, many millions of us caught somewhere between hope and fear today remember this: we salute the office of President of the United States and not the man.   We will have time in the coming weeks to argue and parse through President Biden's new policies.  That is OK as well.  That is how our process works.  A robust society needs legitimate debate amongst people of good will.  Today, however, is not that time.  It is a day to celebrate the United States of America.  

As such, and solely on the basis of the health of our Republic and not in regards to any person's politics,  I would ask you at noon {as the Constitution mandates} to at least pause and acknowledge the office of the Presidency.  At the end of the day as Benjamin Franklin put it, "We need to hang together or most assuredly we will hang separately".  We can all start fighting again on Thursday.  So, regardless of politics or beliefs, let us toast our new President in the ancient manner.

"God bless President Biden and God bless the United States of America."

And I will add God bless to each and every one of you as well.  

Why Is The Stock Market Higher.

I think one of the hardest things for investors to understand is why stocks often rally in the face of bad news.  Most people's world view is made up by their perception of current events and what's going on in their daily lives.   Given everything that's been happening this past year,  it's easy to see how many carry a negative view of our times.   Investor's will often carry this pessimistic viewpoint over into financial markets.  However, markets work on a different logic as they discount future events  and trade accordingly.  The world is full of really depressing news right now, but the reason stocks have traded higher since last spring is because investors see through both Covid and our current political climate.  Investors believe that the worst of the pandemic will be behind us probably in the next few months.  They also believe that the disgraceful events of the mob that attacked the Capital last Wednesday will have little or no bearing on future economic growth.  Investors discount that event because they believe it will have no legs.

One of those old and famous Wall Street sayings is "buy at the sound of cannons, sell at the sound of trumpets".   Legend has it this phrase dates from the Battle of Waterloo and it would take up too much space today to tell that tale.  Yet, what it means is to buy equities when the news is the worst and sell when things are as jubilant as they could possibly be.  Each part of that discipline is hard.  Selling at a top is virtually impossible as both market highs and market lows are only known long after they have been made. Buying when the news is grim is hardest in my opinion because psychologically speaking everything that most investors see at that time tells you this is a horrible time to be investing.  Here though are some examples of when buying stocks made absolutely no sense to most investors, yet doing so has led to extraordinary financial gains.  

The first example goes back to World War II in the April-May period of 1942 as the Allies were getting militarily stomped all over the globe.  Soon though the Battle of Midway occurred and the complexion of the war changed.  Between then and the end of 1945 the Dow Jones Industrial Average returned on a price basis over 115%.  Here, I'll use the Dow in this example because the other indices then didn't exist.  Or take August of 1974.  Back then the economy's being pummeled by inflation, there's civil unrest due to among other things Watergate which results in Richard Nixon resigning as President.  The S&P 500 has also declined nearly 50% over the past 21 months at that point.  Yet buying then would net you nearly a 60% return over the next two years, much more if you'd held on longer.  Most of us still painfully remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis.  I often say the world only gets to end once but the 2007-09 period was the closest I've seen to the financial world unraveling.  Yet, if you bought in March of 2009 you are still reaping the rewards of that decision.  The S&P 500 is up over 450% since then, not including dividends. 

As the news last spring went from bad to worse and with both the markets and the economy tanking, I felt the risk/reward nature for investors had tilted substantially in their favor.  Market's were discounting at that point too much bad news, while not recognizing the positive responses that were likely to come forth from both business and governments.  I said the following as part of a larger note on this blog back then:

"Assuming, the disease doesn’t morph into something more deadly it is reasonable to expect pent up economic demand to start coursing through the system later this year and carry over into 2021.  If you buy my thinking on this then it is reasonable to assume that stocks have declined to much more attractive valuations if investors are willing to look out 12-18 months.  Investors with that type of time horizon and the willingness to assume more risk should think seriously about taking advantage of the opportunities because corporate America is for sale.  Now there’s a reason that stocks are so cheap given all the uncertainty out there.   But I say there’s value being created right now in the markets even as I’m telling you there’s some probability that stocks could fall further in the coming weeks.  I say markets are cheap knowing that the world is looking into a deep dark pit right now and nobody knows when we’ll starting digging our way out.  But we will dig our way out!  It is only a matter of time and sound policy before we start that process.  In that vein, I’m not very good at asking clients to send my firm additional dollars to invest but I will say that if you buy my line of reasoning then I’d suggest perhaps sending us some additional money to put to work on your behalf over time.  Better times will come just as winter turns to spring.  The seeds in the heroic work of our medical communities and the Federal government’s checkbook are being planted even if we can’t see any green shoots yet."

I penned that note to clients on March 22.  That turned out to be a correct judgement as markets moved almost in a straight line higher over the rest of the year.  Now obviously I didn't know how 2020 would end up back then.  In fact if you go read what I originally wrote you'll find I went on to warn there was a very real possibility for more pain in stocks before things settled out.  That part didn't occur.  Now in retrospect this looks like a great call in terms of market timing.  That is not the purpose of me writing this article.  One of the reasons I've always maintained a presence here is to have a record of the things I've written. My views last spring may have been correct in hindsight but I can point to many things I've posted over the years that were wrong and look foolish in retrospect.  If I'd been asked back then where I thought stocks might be by the end of the year then I'd have said perhaps slightly higher than where they were trading back in the spring.  I would have thought the real potential for appreciation would have come in 2021.  Since I am a long-term investor for client money I will always have a 6-18 month time horizon and given that view I felt equities were exhibiting enormous potential given the size of the decline back then.   I thought though we might need more time to see those investments become profitable.

Money will always go where it's treated best and right now investors believe there's going to be better treatment in terms of a return on their capital in equities.  That may turn out to be a fool's errand in the short run, but right now that's the view. Longer-term, in that 6-18 month window I use for investments I'm still pretty bullish on things.  Part of the reason for this upbeat view is the combination of government stimulus of which more is coming, an accommodative Federal Reserve and an economy that at some point this year is going to emerge from its locked down status.  The combination of these factors should lead to robust economic growth.  That, in turn,  should be good for equities. 

New Posting Schedule

I said in my annual introduction to the blog yesterday that we were going to be taking posting this year down to a minimum of one time a week.  There's several reasons for this.  The first and foremost is that after writing nearly 3,100 posts since April of 2005 I've run out of things to say.  Rather, it might be more correct for me to state that I've run out of things to say all the time that clients, who are interested in the markets might find interesting.  I'm hoping that delivering more pointed content once a week will work better at delivering commentary about markets and the investment process.  I will post more often than the schedule if I feel events warrant.

Secondly, I'm hoping that commenting on a platform such as twitter might get across in a more timely manner the things I might like to discuss.  To that point you can find me over there @lumencapital.  

Finally I've just decided I need a break from the responsibility of posting more than once a week.  

At any rate we'll see how it goes in the first part of the year.  I'll perhaps change it back up if I find I miss the grind.

P.S.  I wouldn't necessarily read much into much of the weakness yesterday.  There's a lot of money that waited until this year to make sales in their accounts so as not to have to pay taxes on those gains this April.  I know, I know, you're going to say but what if capital gains taxes go up under a Biden Administration?  Well, a lot of folks are willing to take that bet if it means they don't have to write a check in April.

Solas! An Introduction

Hello and Welcome! At least once a year I will  republish the introduction to this blog and my general disclaimer:

As stated way back when, this is an experiment and Solas! so far seems to me to be the best opportunity to focus on what I want to write in a time efficient and hopefully interesting manner. As a work in progress, especially at its inception, this may be a hit or miss endeavor. I don't know how and may never have time to do many of the things that make this look pretty or more professional. Nor am I going to take time away from my business to become an expert blogger. I do over time hope to make this better. I welcome your comments and suggestions.

What this is:

A learning experience. A way for me on occasion to make a point.

A way for me on occasion to discuss markets and investing.

A place for me on occasion to discuss the vagaries of life and perhaps editorialize.

A place to discuss the investment process.

What this is not:

A forum to tout any form of individual investments. (Particularly individual stocks or ETFs). We do not make recommendations on this blog! If we do discuss individual sectors or securities it will be solely in the context of a learning experience. You should understand that any individual sector or security that may be discussed here has the possibility of loss of principal.

A place for me to give individual investment advice. (Call me or others for this).

A theatre for me to tell you how wonderful I am or one for you to tell me what you think of me!

An environment for me to make stock valuation claims i.e. "XYZ is worth 50 dollars!" If & when we do discuss valuations, that will be an opinion and nothing there should be construed as a guarantee of return or a guarantee that a stock will ever trade to an actual price.

And anything else that I might think of going forward.

One other thing. Where I discuss any individual security I will disclose whether I or clients currently own that stock or ETF. That disclosure is only valid for the day of the post as investments can change at any time. Any person who reads this blog and is not a client of Lumen Capital Management, LLC should either do their own research, give us a call or talk to their own investment advisor before making any investment based on anything written within the confines of this blog.

Oh and a final disclaimer!!! I write principally for the clients and friends of my firm, Lumen Capital Management, LLC. It is a way for them to get a quick read on my thoughts about the markets and any other subject I might cover. I do so after understanding to the best of my ability their unique risk/reward criteria. As such any casual or outside reader of this blog should understand that I am not writing for them! Therefore I or my firm takes no responsibility for any actions overt or otherwise a casual reader of this blog might take based on our discussions here. Casual or outside readers should do their own homework, discuss our articles with their own investment advisors or better yet hire us.

Also in 2021 we are going to experiment with a few other communication endeavors, so at the start of this year we are going to take our posting down to a minimum of one article a week.  Finally here listed below is some information about myself and my firm.  

Christopher R. English is the President and founder of Lumen Capital Management, LLC.-a Registered Investment Advisor regulated by the State of Illinois. A copy of our ADV Part II is available upon request. We manage portfolios for investors and also manage a private investment partnership that is currently closed to outside investors. The information contained on this blog or in any other correspondence from myself or my firm is taken from sources deemed reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Mr. English may, from time to time, write about stocks or other assets in which he or other family members has an investment. In such cases appropriate discloser is made. Lumen Capital Management, LLC provides investment advice or recommendations only for its clients. As such the information contained herein is designed solely for the clients or contacts of Lumen Capital Management, LLC and is not meant to be considered general investment advice.  Mr. English may be reached at Lumencapital@hotmail.com.