Three Things Everybody Knows

 Here are three things everybody seems to know right now.

1.  The election is going to be a disaster.  No way we're going to know who wins on election night and the whole thing is going to devolve into a repeat of Bush v Gore back in 2000.  Besides the President is supposedly laying the groundwork for a massive challenge to practically every state he loses if the results don't go his way.

Could be....but....

If the election were held today Mr. Biden would likely win with more than 300 electoral votes.  He only needs 270.  What's more he's leading in practically all the swing states that he'll need to win in order to to capture the election.  In many of those states the lead has grown in the past few weeks.  Now the election isn't today and this isn't a political commercial.  It's taking a look at the data as it stands right now.  Certainly things can change in the next seven weeks.  For one thing the debates could go poorly for Mr. Biden.  But assuming they don't then the numbers currently don't look in the President's favor.  If he loses by what the numbers currently indicate then it would be hard for him to claim the election was either rigged or stolen.  Certainly it would be hard for him to make a convincing argument for that beyond his base.  Time will tell.

2.  We are in for another miserable fall/winter/spring because of the virus.  Things are going to look just like they did back in March and April.

Could be....but....

I think the virus is here to stay.  Even if we get a vaccine I don't think there's any hope of completely eradicating it.  Instead I think eventually it will be more on par with the flu.  Maybe not this winter but in future years.  In the meantime while I don't think this year will look like a normal winter season, I don't think it will be as bad as last year.  Three quick reasons for that.  First, a vaccine is coming.  Maybe not till sometime this winter but something will be on the market by spring I think.  2nd, we have better therapeutics today than when this thing first hit.  We know more today than we did last March and we'll know more in six months than we know today.  Better therapeutics means a better chance of you not dying or potentially getting really ill.  3.  Mass testing is coming.  I'll have more to say on each of these in a future post but just understand that these three along with human adaption likely means that while life won't seem like it's back to normal come the winter, it will likely be better than last year.  Again time will tell.

3.  The stock market is overvalued and must have a major correction.

Could be...but....

There are a few sectors of the market that are overvalued by traditional metrics but much of the market, as the economy, is still significantly lower than where it began the year.  One could argue that for the main street economy we are more likely approaching the point in a recessionary cycle where things are just starting to turn positive.  If that's the case then these sectors are possibly the next leaders in the markets even if the high flyers take a breather.  Again time will tell and this is also something you'll see me expand upon in a future post.

Anyway that's how I see these three arguments.  Too many are so certain they know the future.  I say consider potential alternatives.

Back later in the week.