So today we change Administrations. It is interesting to me that when you look in aggregate Democratic administrations have tended to see better market returns in the past 60 or so years than Republicans. Of course Presidents have sometimes only marginal impact on the economy and not all of it's gains or losses are their doing. Clinton was the beneficiary of a wonderful stew of technological advances that came to fruition when he was President and not all of the 2007-09 depression can be laid on the feet of George W. Bush. However, as we close the books on the Trump years I will repeat what I've said countless times on this blog that things have steadily been getting better in this country for a long period of time. The disruption and despair by the pandemic shouldn't obscure that fact. I am happy to debate any time that things have gotten better for most people over time because the data is on my side. We can all have an honest discussion on how much of that credit any President deserves and we can have an honest debate on the quality of the American economy today. But I'll go with the data and on so many fronts we're doing better. I believe we'll start to see this rapidly again as more people get vaccinated.
Now I would like to say something about how I address politics on this blog. I am amused by the folks who seem to think I was either for or against a particular candidate in the last election. Like most Americans I have political views. I believe my views are like most Americans somewhere between right and left. To paraphrase former President Obama my politics runs more towards purple than any deep shade of red or blue. However, I am old enough now to know that others might not feel that way about how I see the political world. Because I am writing a blog about the markets, I strive as much as humanly possible to keep those beliefs out of my writing. I talk about the political arena solely to explain how I perceive events or political escapades or world realities will impact market returns. It is not my intention to try to influence anybody on how to vote or to influence their politics. However, markets and policy as it comes out of Washington are intwined and so there will be times when I discuss each. Since we have an Executive Branch that is largely responsible for this policy I will occasionally discuss that person and their impact on events. That is all I try to do when discussing any President or any political event.
Finally I would say something about today's inauguration. Whatever faults the United States has, and God help us we as imperfect beings have many, today an incredible thing will happen. Precisely at noon in Washington DC the most powerful man in the world will transfer that power, that imperium, to the victor of last November's election. Although the President stands accused by many for the events that have unfolded this month, today Mr. Trump will not call out the vast resources of the Federal Government in order to remain in power. The military will stay in its barracks or continue fighting our wars or do the job of protecting its new Commander-in-Chief. Regardless of what one thinks about Joe Biden, today at noon he will become our President. This transfer of power is one of the truly remarkable gifts of our Republic. Even though mandated by the Constitution, this precedent of a peaceful transfer is a gift to us from none other than George Washington himself. It has been followed in both peace and war by every President since. Today we will see a continuation of a process and institution as old as the country itself.
Whether you are a staunch Trump supporter or voted for Mr. Biden, or whether you are as the many, many millions of us caught somewhere between hope and fear today remember this: we salute the office of President of the United States and not the man. We will have time in the coming weeks to argue and parse through President Biden's new policies. That is OK as well. That is how our process works. A robust society needs legitimate debate amongst people of good will. Today, however, is not that time. It is a day to celebrate the United States of America.
As such, and solely on the basis of the health of our Republic and not in regards to any person's politics, I would ask you at noon {as the Constitution mandates} to at least pause and acknowledge the office of the Presidency. At the end of the day as Benjamin Franklin put it, "We need to hang together or most assuredly we will hang separately". We can all start fighting again on Thursday. So, regardless of politics or beliefs, let us toast our new President in the ancient manner.
"God bless President Biden and God bless the United States of America."
And I will add God bless to each and every one of you as well.
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