Paul Tudor Jones Ted Presentation

Here's that TED presentation by Paul Tudor Jones that I promised you from the other day.

Next week is the Easter holiday season and I will likely not be posting as I will be doing a bit of traveling during the week.  {I will be in Spain!}  I might put out a quick thought if I find the time but otherwise expect us back in the turret either the 6th or 7th of April.  Have a happy Easter and happy Passover.

God bless.

an tSionna {Gold}

From "Chart of the Day.com":   {Subscription required beyond the free product they put out once a week.}

Where are all the gold bugs now?

*Long ETFs related to gold in certain client accounts and strategies.

Thoughts {03.25.15}

-Yo-Yo market action continues.  We've opened down about half a percent and are trading back to where we were roughly a week ago.  Also we were close to the old highs around 2,120 on the S&P 500 a few days ago and were repelled back away again.  That are is beginning to look like a more serious resistance level.  

-Heinz and Kraft are merging.  {Velveeta marries Ketchup!}

-There's been a lot of discussion about what's hurting the middle class and the working class.  This article here makes the argument that it's Robots, de-Unionionzation and China.  I wonder what would happen at say McDonalds or Walmart if both companies would publicly come out and say the following:  "We are giving our employees an extra wage increase on top of what's already been announced of $1.00 per hour.  We will pay for it by raising the price on all of our products by 5-10  cents.  All proceeds from this increase will go to our employees."  I wonder if they would lose business?  I actually think not but until somebody tries that experiment we'll never know the answer.

-Greece is projected to run out of money by April 20th.  I think it's 50-50 whether they get any extra cash or the Germans tell them it's time to go.  Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been trying to play nice in Germany the last few days.  He so far seems to have had a nice session with German Chancellor Angela Merkel but so far has walked away with no new money.  

-Markets overseas so far are seeing better performance vs. the US so far in 2015.  Here's a performance chart of a select group of foreign ETFs vs the S&P 500 for this year via Stockcharts.com.

*Long VGK, VWO and VPL and long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts although these positions can change at any time.  Kraft, Heinz, Walmart and McDonalds are components of various ETFS we own for clients and in personal accounts.

The Other Side Of the Argument

It has been one of my core thesis over the past three years that things have been getting better in the economy.  Markets have been in rally mode throughout that time so it looks like most others agree with me.   However, that is not to say that those that argue that things are not as bright as might seem don't have some valid points or that things at some point can't get worse.  Also I believe that one needs to hear arguments against your point of view to test your beliefs.

Below I am sending you a link to a blog called Zero Hedge.  The article is via another blog entitled The Economic Collapse. The name of the article is 10 Charts Which Show We Are Much Worse Off Than Just Before the Last Economic Crisis.  Irrespective of where it originated it is a well thought out piece that does a very good job of illustrating why things are perhaps not as cheery as all seems.  Later this week I will link you to a Ted presentation given by Paul Tudor Jones about rising inequality in America.  I urge you to read and listen to both.  I also think in fairness I should show you that not everybody agrees with me.

I think that the concerns people place on the economy are justified.  Where I perhaps depart from the bearish troop is that I am not completely convinced that economic statistics today adequately measure the health of our economy.  Here are a few examples of what I mean by this:

A friend of mine told me that his wife, who is not currently in the workplace in the sense that she doesn't work for anybody earning a paycheck, recently told me that she made between $12,000-17,000 last year selling product on Etsy.com.  I don't know anything about how much time she spends doing this.  I'm also assuming that's her profit.  If that's correct that's a pretty good chunk of coin for an outside activity.  Is she employed or not?  Working or not?  I don't see how our economic statistics capture that activity.

Current estimates suggest there are 11 to 15 million illegals in the United States.  I'm guessing there's double the official estimates.  How are these folks counted in the statistics?  Assuming most work off the books how is their economic activity measured?

One of the statistics that is constantly shown is the Labor Force Participation Rate.  This is a number used to estimate the amount of people that have supposedly been out of work so long that they've given up looking for a job.  Who gets included in that number?  Does it for example include the woman mentioned above selling product on Easy?  Does it include me who works for himself?  How about the stay at home dad who writes a sports blog in his spare time and has enough of a following that he can make some money doing it?  How about a 55 year-old coal miner trying to apply for disability?  How about the hairdresser that cuts hair out of her home?   I don't know the answer to that and I suspect whoever keeps track of that statistic doesn't know it either.

Look I''m no Pollyanna and I think there are huge structural challenges to the US and world economies.  At some point things from an economic perspective will get worse.  But the people that have bet against the US economy in the past three years have been spectacularly wrong and I'm not sure they're going to be correct anytime soon.   Stocks may not necessarily advance in the short run and economy activity may slow down at some point this year due to energy prices, the soaring dollar and a few other things, but there's no indication based on current statistical readings that the economy is ready to tank again.  I'll let our indicators be my guide regarding this and wait to be proven wrong by the naysayers.

Thoughts {03.23.15}

-Markets have opened mixed today.   Seem to be sorting out the headlines and  digesting the gains from the end of last week.  End of quarter machinations in portfolios means that the investing class has an incentive to keep stocks stable/higher at least through the end of the month.  

-As we discussed last Thursday, one of the things bothering markets has been the continued decline in 2015 earnings.  We may get some break from that soon as most market outlooks will begin to roll out to end of first quarter 2016.  Haven't yet done that math myself or seen any official numbers out on this but I'm guessing that we'll be looking at estimates in the $122-123 range.  That will make valuations still historically at the higher end of the range but perhaps a bit easier to stomach as long as those numbers don't start to get cut as well.  Probably the worst hits to the oil patch, where most of the decline has occurred, are already baked into numbers.  

-In regards to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates last week, check out anything that's main mission is to pay out a dividend.  These investments have been in the penalty box since the first of the year, yet most started rallying a week ago.  Maybe market's sniffed out the Fed's decision early or somebody knew something but either way these have been on a fast track higher.

-German-Greek meeting dominates the European headlines.   Greeks keep stirring up the ashes of World War II it seems as a lever to pry more money/concessions from the Germans.  I think Greece better be careful going down that road.  I'm reminded of the German exchange student that stayed with us a few years ago who acknowledged that Germans had done horrible things during the war but noted that her grand-parents were children then and her parents hadn't even been born.  Her conclusion was all of that was in the past and not her fault.  I'm sure a lot of Germans feel the exact same way.

-Snowing here and my NCAA bracket's a mess so it's a blue Monday all around.  

an tSionna {03.19.15}

S&P 500 via its ETF SPY.  Chart is from Stockcharts.com. Market's exploded higher toward the upper end of of the trading range we've been in since last fall yesterday.  We will have to see how the markets react to this resistance level.   Stocks fell lower the last time we were here back in February and today we've opened slightly lower.  There are two schools of thought leading to the uncertainty and volatility we've been seeing the past few months.  I'll try to briefly summarize both schools of thought below.

On the one hand and the more bearish case is the fact that stocks aren't cheap {17 times earnings as we speak} and that earnings estimates have continued to come down.  Earnings are now basically flat with last year for calendar year 2015.  Also it seems as if somebody tapped on the breaks to the US economy a bit.  The Federal Reserve basically acknowledged this when they said yesterday that they were in no hurry to start raising rates.  They basically said they were seeing lower growth, lower unemployment and lower inflation.  While the actual unemployment rate is the best we've seen in years at 5.5%, I think the Fed is looking at the underemployed and the folks that have given up looking for a job and seeing more softness in that data from what the actual employment statistics are telling us.   You are also starting to hear a bit more chatter about the winter's effect on the economy, especially in regards to the Northeast.  Boston had its snowiest winter ever!

The sunnier side to this is that perhaps investors are looking through the earnings declines as the majority of those have occurred in the energy sector.  Those making that argument will also say that we haven't yet seen the full effects of the decline in energy prices on consumer spending.  They think the consumer has been reluctant to spend much of the windfall because of concerns that the decline is only temporary and we'll start seeing the full effects of this come summer.  They also think that stocks deserve to trade at higher multiples in an era where interest rates are so low.  

I buy a bit into both arguments, hence my more neutral outlook.  It's hard for me to be completely bearish as I think the economy is doing better in many ways than most people expect.  I think that part of the reason we don't see all of this is because I'm not sure we have the tools to capture some of what I see happening out there.  For example how to you measure the economic impact of somebody who makes a living buying and selling product on line?  How do you measure the impact of the millions of people working illegally or off the books here?  Maybe those tools are out there but I've never seen them or had anybody tell me where to go look for them.  On the other hand I think the decline in earnings this year and the higher valuations than we've seen in many years puts a lid on price advancement at some point.  I think stocks have the potential to trade to around the 2,250 level by year end.  {PLEASE NOTE: that I said stocks have the potential to trade to around 2,250 not that they will get to that point.  For all I know we'll never see that price or maybe we'll blow through that level on the way to something much higher.  I deal in probabilities not possibilities.  Anything is possible but not everything is probable.}  

I think it is unlikely that stock prices  are going higher in a straight line and I think there is a higher probability that we'll see at least one correction of 10% before this year is out.   That said, I also think it a low probability event that we are on the cusp of a major market change based on the evidence we see at this point.  We may see higher volatility than most have become used to going forward in stocks but most data sets at this point are indicating the chance of a recession.  At the end of the day perhaps we are just going to be in a period where stocks flop around in a trading range, frustrating both the bulls and the bears.  Maybe stocks will simply correct by time.  We'll end up at some point down the line having in essence gone nowhere in the major indices.  We'll let our indicators be our guide.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time.

Thoughts {03.18.15}

A quick thought between appointments and research meetings.  Markets will mark time today until after the Federal Reserve meeting this afternoon.  Most expect to come away from that with a better understanding of when {or if} the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates.  Most important will be to see how the markets react to whatever comes out of Washington.  

I think we'll see a rate increase in June.  I think we may see symbolic rate increases between a half and a full percent over the next year.  I think the markets will initially throw a hissy fit over this but at some point upon reflection, they will realize that a small rise in rates won't likely derail the economy and would be indicative of a stronger economy.  I don't think we'll see rate increases over the next year of much more than that because the economy won't be able to support it.  By that I mean for example in this environment I'm not sure a rise in mortgage rates of a half percent lock up the housing market.  I'm sure an increase of one or two percentage points will bring that to a standstill.  Anyway that's what I think.

I also know it doesn't matter what I think....Stay tuned for 1:00 PM Chicago time.  

St. Patrick's Day

There are no little Irish dancers left for me to ferry about these days and so I find the first three weeks of March to be a low key period as opposed to all the hustle and bustle that used to come with "the season" as it's called in Irish Dance circles.  Fact is the Chicago area is home to well over a million people who claim some form of Irish ancestry and if you're an Irish dancer in March and you can't find a gig then you're in the wrong activity.  Time was I spent most nights in early to mid-March squiring a gaggle of young ladies to their next performance.  I think I've been in every West Side and North Side parish, Union Hall,  hotel and even the WGN studies during that period.  

While that part of my life has passed into memory we still honor St. Patrick's Day around here so I thought I'd update 10 facts about the Irish, the parade or about Ireland which are not well known. Just trying to have some fun with the season and we will get back to more serious matters soon. Irregardless if you are 100% Irish, part Irish (like my family) or just Irish For The Day- Cead Mille Failte!

1) Ireland is slightly larger than West Virginia. If it were part of the U.S. it would rank approximately 19th in terms of population between Wisconsin and Maryland according to 2000 census figures.

2) The Gross Domestic Product of the U.S. is in excess of $11 Trillion dollars & is ranked 1st in the world. Ireland is ranked 30th at $183 billion dollars. Chicago's GDP has been estimated at around 380 Billion.

3) According to the Chicago Tribune, "Corned Beef and Cabbage" is an Irish-American staple and more Budweiser is consumed in Ireland than Guinness.

4) Musicians with Irish ancestral ties include Paul, McCartney, John Lennon & George Harrison of the Beatles; Bruce Springsteen & Keith Richards.

5) 17 American Presidents have Irish Ancestry. This list not only includes obvious Presidents such as Kennedy and Reagan but also includes Andrew Jackson, Both Bush's, Bill Clinton and President Obama. Every elected President since 1960 claims Irish ancestry. 

6) New York City has the largest St. Patrick's Day parade in the world. Last year more than 150,000 marchers participated and it attracted roughly 2 million viewers. That is roughly 500,ooo more souls attended the parade than the combined populations of Dublin, Belfast, Limerick & Cork.

7) Michael Flately of Riverdance fame is credited with popularizing Irish Step Dancing around the world. It is widely assumed that Flately is a native of Ireland but in fact he was born and raised right here in the Chicago area. Perhaps because of this it is claimed that over 100,000 young women in Chicago and its surrounding environs actively participate in some form of Irish Dance.

8) George Clooney, Harrison Ford, Mel Gibson, Gregory Peck, Barbara Stanwyck, John Travolta, Spencer Tracy, Judy Garland & John Wayne all had Irish ancestors.

9) Guinness & St. Patrick's Day seem to go hand in hand. (At least they do in my neck of the woods). They also have a side business of that World Record Book. Almost 2 billion pints of Guinness are served each year. More Guinness is served on St. Patrick's Day than on any other day of the year.

10) Finally the best for the last. It is claimed that Ireland has never had a population greater than about 8 million people. The Irish have emigrated all over the world. The majority of their descendants are found in Canada, the U.S., Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. 47 million Americans claim Irish Ancestry. Their descendants can also be found in more unexpected places like Chile, South Africa, Mexico, Argentina and even China. Former Mexican President Vincente Fox is of Irish ancestry. Altogether it is estimated that perhaps as many as 90 million people can trace some part of their family tree back to Ireland. This is over fourteen times the population of the island of Ireland itself!

Dia dhuit.  {Out tomorrow.  May try to post something quick If not, I'm back Thursday.}

Valuation {03.16.15}

The S&P 500 closed at 2,053.40 which is a decline of 1.65% from 2,019.42 when we last reviewed these numbers back on 01.21.2015.  Below is our current analysis.  We are taking our earnings estimates for 2015 down significantly owing to the current strength in the dollar and the continued decline in energy earnings.  We'll throw a dollop of winter weather in the eastern US in here just for kicks.  We will use a range of $118-121 for 2015 with a $119.50 midpoint.   We also use a simple color code to give you some reference for these numbers.  Green will indicate that the valuation on the index on a strictly historical basis has become more attractive from the last time we did this review.  Red will indicate the opposite. 

Our Midpoint S&P 500 Earnings Estimate of $119.50 {Through 03.16.2015}

Current PE:                     17.18

Earnings Yield:                 5.85%

Dividend Yield:               1.85% {Estimated.} 

Current Expected Price Cone of Probability,   01.20.14:   1,750-2,250.  While energy has lagged the overall economy is performing quite well.  As such we will leave this unchanged at this point as we are unsure  whether investors will continue to look through the decline in earnings as long as it continues to be largely energy related.  

The current yield on the 10 year US Treasury is 2.09% and has gained 26 basis points since the last time we did this analysis.    

The Cone of Probability is our current assessment of the trading range within which we think stocks have the potential to trade during the described time period.  It is a probabilistic assessment based on a many factors.  Some of these inputs are: Earnings estimates, also are those estimates rising or falling, dividend yield, earnings yield and the current yield on the US 10 year treasury.  This is not an exhaustive list of all of the variables that are used in creating the cone.  The Cone of Probability is used solely for analytical purposes.  It will fluctuate with market conditions and changes to the data inputs.  Index prices can and have traded outside of the range of the cone.  The data supplied when we discuss the cone is for informational use only.  There should be no expectation that this price range will be accurate and there are no guarantees that this information is correct.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client accounts, although positions can change at any time.  

Thoughts {03.12.15}

-Happy Birthday Mrs. E.!

-The S&P 500 is now negative for the year.  It is up slightly more than 3.5% since the end of 2014's second quarter.  Volatility, however, has increased with six declines of nearly 5%.  We also may be working on a 7th decline of that magnitude right now.  Markets are becoming more oversold short-term, but not quite to a level yet where they have historically bounced by our work.

-The investment world seems to be waking up to how dependent the entire world has become to low US interest rates.  See here and here.

-In think we are going to hear more about the rough winter weather as a drag on the economy in the coming weeks.  It will be a good excuse for companies to explain away softer sales and lower earnings projections going forward.

Back Monday

Thoughts {03.11.2015}

Massive risk off trade in equities yesterday.  Reasons cited:  

1.   Falling Euro/rising dollar

2.   Fear that Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates sooner than expected thereby adding more strength to said dollar.

3.  Reason that should have been cited when this market started selling off two weeks ago.  Market was broadly over bought after a nearly 6% rise from lows at the end of January.  It's not that long ago that we were talking about Nasdaq 5,000 and making new highs on the S&P 500.

Investors don't mind volatility when the market is rallying.  Boy do they hate it when the reverse happens and a nasty 2-4% loss occurs in a short period of time.

Market looks set to rally this AM.  Will need to watch how that unfolds for clues as to future action.  Also will be interesting to see how the market reacts as it again approaches new highs at some point.  {Update 8:55-So far it's not much of a bounce!}

Cullen Roche weighs in on the "Robo" Advisors and holding cash in your brokerage accounts.  

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in both client and personal accounts although these positions can change at any time.

Cash

There is my opinion a nasty debate that's taken a new life recently in the investment world over whether cash is to be considered an investment.  You can find a link to that over at the blog of the Reformed Broker here.  Now some of this debate frankly has more to do with the rise in the past few years of the rise of the so called Robo-advisers.  That's a debate for another time and place.   As to whether cash should be considered an asset class I say absolutely.  Here's why:

1.   First of all an account will almost always have some sort of cash component.  Dividends and interest will be paid, bonds will come due, sales will be made without the corresponding investment opportunity.  Even if dividends are reinvested, most portfolios will throw off some interest.  It is almost impossible not to have some percent of a portfolio's assets in cash.   

2.    Cash is a place to park funds while investors wait for better opportunities.  In my nearly 30 years in the business cash was also an asset class that paid you as a place to park your money.  Money markets paid nearly double digit amounts when I started and for many years averaged in the 2-4% range.  At some point when yields start to rise, bonds and bond funds will likely decline in value.  Cash will stay constant.  I see no problem with having a certain percent of a client's portfolio in cash waiting to be opportunistically or strategically invested.  This of course is dependent on a client's unique risk/reward profiles.

3.     Cash is a wonderful hedge in falling markets.  Cash may not pay anything right now but neither is it going down in value.  We view cash as one of our primary ways of hedging versus market risk.  They say nobody can time the markets and there is a large amount of truth in this.  But one can identify periods when probability suggests that returns either for markets as a whole or for investment classes will potentially be subpar.  Paring back on investments during this time and building up a cash reserve for possible opportunities in the future makes sense to me and to investors such as Warren Buffett.  I don't know what Buffett's views are on cash as a whole {I'm sure I could find them if I wanted but I don't have the time or energy to go look right now},  I do know that he likes to invest opportunistically when he can for example take one dollar and turn it into two.  You have to have something in which to make those investments.  Unless he's going to borrow at those points, you have to have cash.

I tell clients that you can get an idea of how we feel about the markets by seeing how much cash we have in their portfolios.  I'm not going to disclose how much that is but in general and in the aggregate clients have more cash today than they did at the beginning of the year.    I'm working on a larger piece on why that is which I hope to post here sometime next week.  Because of that, and until it's done, my posting will be light and short.  

There are some changes coming in my investment thoughts.  I'll detail them to you when they're completed.

an tSionna {03.09.15-Market Sectors}

Here's a chart showing how the various market sectors that comprise the S&P 500 have faired so far in 2015. {You can double-click on the chart to make it larger.} Energy is self-explanatory.  Utilities and financials have more to do with interest rates.  Markets are beginning to anticipate US rate hikes in 2015.  Friday the market had a tantrum on the good employment numbers because of fears that interest rate hikes will now come sooner than recently expected.   

Utilities and by extension other income producing assets are taking the brunt of this right now.  A basket of 10 ETFs that we follow which have a large income component are down about 1.5% year to date, with the majority of those losses having come in the past three weeks.

Now I'm one of the folks that think that interest rates will rise somewhat in 2015 or early next year,  but I also think that's not going to much of a factor whether the market goes up or down.  Probability suggests that any rise in rates should be muted.  Rates cannot dramatically rise here when many places in the world carry negative interest rates.  Also, on balance, I think investors will ultimately realize that a slight rise in rates is a good thing as it will likely mean that the economy is doing better and the Federal Reserve feels it is strong enough to pull back on some of the support they've injected into the system these past several years.

Right now the market doesn't see it that way in regards to interest rates, but let's wait and see how it reacts in the next few weeks.  Personally I think if these higher yielding ETFs pull back more, then probability suggests they will be better buys.  

As for the market itself, there are things we are worrying about which will be the subject of an upcoming post but a slight rise in interest rates is not our chief concern.

Posting schedule this week:  Wednesday, Thursday as I have to be out.  May have a few quick thoughts on the other days.

Performance Chart comes to us from Stockcharts.com.

*We are long various sectors depicted above via ETFs or via ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and or personal accounts.  Positions can vary in accounts depending on account strategy and the unique risk/reward characteristics of our clients.

Thoughts {03.06.15}

A back of the envelope calculation/thought.  

By our work you have to go back to the summer/fall of 2011 to find a market that experienced a correction of greater than 15%.  That decline by our work in the S&P 500 was just a bit over 20% from high to low.  The S&P 500 is up over 90% in terms of price since that time.  

You have to go back to the spring/summer of 2012 to find a market that experienced a correction of 10% or more by our work.  The S&P 500 is up around 65% in terms of price since that time.

A decline of 10% in the S&P 500 would take the index back down to about 1,900.

A decline of 15% would take it back to around 1,780-1,790.

A decline of 20% would take it back to around 1,680-1,700.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in both client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice to readers of this blog.

Three Kings

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you for your consideration the Three Kings of Market indices as represented by their respective ETFs.  The S&P 500 {SPY}, the Nasdaq as represented by ETF Symbol ONEQ and the granddaddy of all indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average {DIA}.  You can double click on each if you want to make them larger.  What do we notice about all three?

1.  Each is a mirror image of the other in terms of how they've traded over the past ten months.  

2.  Each broke out of a consolidation pattern back at the beginning of the year

3.  Each seems to have currently run into a bit of resistance.

4.  Each is also currently overbought by our work longer term.

Markets may experience a bit of a bounce today or tomorrow after a rough go of it over the past few days.  We will have to monitor how these indices react to their current levels of resistance {about 1% now above where these currently trade} for clues as to market direction going forward.

Out tomorrow.

Charts are from FINVIZ.com.

*Long ETFs related to all three of these indices.  ETFs related to the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 I am long in both client and personal accounts.  Long DIA as a legacy investment in certain client accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice to our readers.

Thoughts {03.04.15}

Looks like I've developed a new category for the Blog that I'm simply going to call "Thoughts".  I'm incorporating all the "On The Run" columns into this section after getting a positive response to those writings.  I'm going to use this section as a way for me to jot down random musings or things I've seen that are worth pointing out that aren't perhaps worth an entire posting on their own.  Here goes for today.

-Markets are by our work now overbought in all time frames.  This along with valuations could be the reason for the most recent choppiness.

-Probability suggests that we will likely see more volatility this year.  Investors presumably don't mind volatility on the way up but they sure hate it when it goes the other way against their positions.

-Oil seems for the time being to have stabilized.

-You want to really give the economy a boost fix this:  Bloomberg Business News: U.S. Companies are Stashing $2.1 Trillion Overseas to Avoid Taxes.   That's the equivalent of being ranked 9th by world GDP.  

Nasdaq 5,000

The Nasdaq closed above 5,000 today.  Last time it traded at this level was way back in 2000.  Then the bottom feel out.  Expect to see a lot of ink spilled about this in the next day or so.  Via Business Insider, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out three critical differences between 2000 and today:

• Tech stocks are much cheaper now than they were then. "The S&P 500 Tech sector today commands a 15x forward price-to-earnings multiple whereas in 2000, that multiple was 30x and fraught with massively inflated earnings forecasts," he wrote.
• 
  
• Compared to treasuries, the yield from tech stocks is much higher. The dividend yield is 1.5%, similar to a five-year note, whereas in 2000, the yield was nearly 0% versus 6.5% on the 10-year.
• 
  
• "It is not just tech any more." Almost 60% of Nasdaq market capitalization was made up of tech stocks in 2,000, compared to a little over 40% today. The percentage of Health care, financial and consumer stocks on the index has climbed over the years.

There's going to be much made of this on the internet and on the air, but in my opinion  Nasdaq 5,000 is just a number.  It's a statistical benchmark this time seemingly supported by earnings and real companies.  The only thing I'd say is I'll bet you most of the folks who are touting its praises today privately doubted over the past 15 years that they'd ever see this number again.

Link:  Business Insider:  Three Reasons why Nasdaq 5,000 Really is Different this Time.

an tSionna {Dow Comparison}

From Chart of the Day. {Subscription required to access their main product.} How the current Dow rally compares with previous bull markets in terms of time and price.  {Sort of run of the mill by my view.  Have to throw that 1942 rally away as it's too much of an outlier.}

Link:  Chart of the Day:  The Dow.