Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Nasdaq 5,000

The Nasdaq closed above 5,000 today.  Last time it traded at this level was way back in 2000.  Then the bottom feel out.  Expect to see a lot of ink spilled about this in the next day or so.  Via Business Insider, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out three critical differences between 2000 and today:


  • Tech stocks are much cheaper now than they were then. "The S&P 500 Tech sector today commands a 15x forward price-to-earnings multiple whereas in 2000, that multiple was 30x and fraught with massively inflated earnings forecasts," he wrote.

  • Compared to treasuries, the yield from tech stocks is much higher. The dividend yield is 1.5%, similar to a five-year note, whereas in 2000, the yield was nearly 0% versus 6.5% on the 10-year.

  • "It is not just tech any more." Almost 60% of Nasdaq market capitalization was made up of tech stocks in 2,000, compared to a little over 40% today. The percentage of Health care, financial and consumer stocks on the index has climbed over the years.

There's going to be much made of this on the internet and on the air, but in my opinion  Nasdaq 5,000 is just a number.  It's a statistical benchmark this time seemingly supported by earnings and real companies.  The only thing I'd say is I'll bet you most of the folks who are touting its praises today privately doubted over the past 15 years that they'd ever see this number again.