On The Run

I have a series of client meetings today.  I'll pass on a few brief thoughts before I run and I'll be back tomorrow.

-Markets right now act like they want to run higher.  There are strong historical seasonal tailwinds in February through sometime in April that tend to support price advancement. Probability would suggest that if this is going to happen it is showing up right when history says it should.

-The "Belle of the Ball" so far in 2015 have been overseas markets.  Hard to say right now whether this is a longer sustained push or just another false dawn.  Still statistically cheap versus the US.

-Interest rates at some point here in the US will go higher but whatever increases we see are likely to be slow and incremental and will probably not add much in the way of interest burden to the economy.  Hard to see how a long sustained rise in rates would fit into an economy that's lucky to grow 3%.  That said things are getting better here and a slight rise at some point I think will be viewed more confidently as long as it's not seen as the start of something bigger.

-I'm beginning to suspect that my earnings estimates for the S&P 500 for 2015 are too high due to the collapse in energy prices.  I'm working on that now and will update when I've completed my analysis.

-I'm also working on a longer term piece talking about where we go from here in regards to the equity markets both here and abroad.  Thought I'd be putting that out this week but that schedule now seems optimistic.  Stay tuned.  

Back tomorrow and Thursday.  No post Friday.