Thursday, February 05, 2015

an tSionna {Jump Ball}

Various world indices that after a punk 2014 are starting to be of interest on their charts.

1st up below for comparison sake is the S&P 500 which we can now see has been locked in a trading range since last summer.


Here's the Vanguard European ETF, VGK.  Downward sloping trend line dating back to July has been broken but trading at resistance and slightly over bought short term by our work.


Next is the Vanguard emerging market ETF, VWO.  Close to the same chart pattern.



Here's the Vanguard Pacific ETF, VPL.  Ditto on the pattern, or close enough for government work!


Now for something a bit different {also so I'm not accused of being a shill for Vanguard}.  The pattern here is slightly different but it too is close to testing a longer term trend line.



Now I'm not trying to tell you to go out and buy these ETFs or any others similar to these today.  I also do not profess to know where these may be headed in the shorter term.   That is why I think these are currently more in the "Jump Ball" status in terms of where they might trade in terms of price.  We are probabilistic in terms of our investment strategies.  Because of this and because we are for the most part for clients longer term investors, I will say that I think there are several reasons why foreign markets may be more attractive right now for investment dollars, especially when it comes to valuation.  In full disclosure I also will let you know that we are long in some form international related ETFs and most of the ones displayed above in both client and personal accounts.  We are long these depending on investment strategy and client individual mandates.  Also in the name of full disclosure we may have been in the markets in regards to our international strategies recently and may be buyers in the future.   

We have our own international strategy for clients and anybody who is a casual reader of this blog knows that I am a strong advocate of you doing your own homework, talking to your own advisor about your international strategy or hiring us.  You should also know that I've been a strong advocate for international exposure for the past several years and have been dead wrong for the most part in terms of timing.  I will also say that anything you read here is our opinion, which has some percentage likelihood of being wrong and that international markets perhaps carry a higher degree of risk and volatility than we sometimes see here in the US.  If you are going to invest in this arena, understand what you are getting into or at least talk to your advisor.  Yet I think the discrepancies in these markets versus the US at the least bears watching and again is deserving of some additional homework on your part if you are a casual reader here.  

Next post here Monday when we will begin releasing our Winter Client Letter.

Charts via FINVIZ.com.



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