Thoughts {03.23.15}

-Markets have opened mixed today.   Seem to be sorting out the headlines and  digesting the gains from the end of last week.  End of quarter machinations in portfolios means that the investing class has an incentive to keep stocks stable/higher at least through the end of the month.  

-As we discussed last Thursday, one of the things bothering markets has been the continued decline in 2015 earnings.  We may get some break from that soon as most market outlooks will begin to roll out to end of first quarter 2016.  Haven't yet done that math myself or seen any official numbers out on this but I'm guessing that we'll be looking at estimates in the $122-123 range.  That will make valuations still historically at the higher end of the range but perhaps a bit easier to stomach as long as those numbers don't start to get cut as well.  Probably the worst hits to the oil patch, where most of the decline has occurred, are already baked into numbers.  

-In regards to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates last week, check out anything that's main mission is to pay out a dividend.  These investments have been in the penalty box since the first of the year, yet most started rallying a week ago.  Maybe market's sniffed out the Fed's decision early or somebody knew something but either way these have been on a fast track higher.

-German-Greek meeting dominates the European headlines.   Greeks keep stirring up the ashes of World War II it seems as a lever to pry more money/concessions from the Germans.  I think Greece better be careful going down that road.  I'm reminded of the German exchange student that stayed with us a few years ago who acknowledged that Germans had done horrible things during the war but noted that her grand-parents were children then and her parents hadn't even been born.  Her conclusion was all of that was in the past and not her fault.  I'm sure a lot of Germans feel the exact same way.

-Snowing here and my NCAA bracket's a mess so it's a blue Monday all around.