Monday, November 09, 2020

First Thoughts After Our Elections And The Markets

Wonderful news out of Pfizer this AM related to their vaccine.  If the news stays this good on the inoculation front then we can start to see the beginning of the end of the pandemic.  We're not going to know for a longer period of time when we have Covid under control, but the question of "IF" we'll ever get the better of the disease is now starting to look less likely.

The stock market is up big on this news.  The resolution of the election is also helping.  Regardless of what the President is saying, he is unlikely to prevail in his legal challenges to the vote count, while so far the circumstantial evidence of massive voter fraud does not seem to exist.  The President may not believe this but you can tell by the actions of many institutions in the Federal Government, certain prominent Republicans and even members of his Administration that they know further resistance is a very long shot.

I keep hearing about how divided we are as a country yet it looks to me like this election was decided by those in the center who split their tickets for divided government.

If demographics is destiny then the GOP should be very worried.  The Republican brand has been severely damaged amongst young people.  It will be interesting to see what percentage of voters under 35 voted Republican.  It was hard to ignore the ages of all those people spontaneously celebrating in cities around the nation after the race was called for Biden.

We're going to get a stimulus package if not before the end of the year then soon into a new Biden Administration.  The prospect of that, better economic times ahead, favorable seasonality and the possibility of a vaccine should create a positive environment for stocks.

I will more to say on this in the coming days.