Numbers That Spell Trouble

The Novel Coronavirus is the reason more than any other out there  why I think the President is in trouble, especially in those Midwest swing states he barely won four years ago.  This from the Wall Street Journal yesterday.

"Some 69% of Americans believe that the country could have dealt with Covid-19 more effectively, and 65% disapprove of how President Trump has handled the disease, including 61% of seniors, 65% of Americans in Sunbelt swing states and 66% in Rust Belt swing states. Mr. Trump’s attacks on governors and mayors who have adopted strong measures to contain the disease are unlikely to change many minds: 76% of Americans—including 56% of Republicans—believe that actions such as shutdowns and mask mandates by state and local officials are reasonable steps to protect public health and safety, not unreasonable restrictions on individual liberty."

These are not good numbers for the President.  I'll repeat what I've said for many months, it will fly against modern historic norms for a sitting President {regardless of political party} to get reelected during an economic contraction.  A depression destroyed Herbert Hoover in 1928, recessions likely cost Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush reelection in 1992.  They also contributed mightily to denying Richard Nixon the White House in 1960 and John McCain in 2008.  Both men were in essence asking for a 3rd term for the existing President during an economic contraction.  Now you have numbers that show a large plurality of the public disproving how a sitting President has dealt with the pandemic.  I think these numbers spell trouble for him.

Again I don't do politics on this blog.  I point this out because I care about economic policy and how it relates to the investments I make for my clients.  You are free to agree or disagree with me. I also am open to the possibility that this analysis is wrong. I've seen articles that do a pretty go job of saying why and how the President can pull another November surprise.  I also think investors have factored in scenarios for whichever party takes the White House.   I believe the markets at this point can spin a positive story regardless of who wins.  However, polling numbers and historical precedent do not lie and the polling data above is troubling for Mr. Trump no matter which side of the political aisle you prefer.

Back next week.

Link:  "American Values Portend Trump's Defeat" {Paywall}