Why The Rally

We're seeing stocks rally into today's open.  This would seem to fly in the face of all the election uncertainty we've been stuck with for the past several months.  What I think the markets are telling us this morning by their performance is that we'll know relatively soon after the election who has won.  I'm not saying you're going to wake up Wednesday morning and know who's going to be the next President I think there's a fairly strong probability we won't know that.  But I'm guessing we'll know sooner rather than most pundits in the media seem to think.  

Now notice that I'm not saying stocks are predicting WHO will win.  For the record, I still think it's Joe Biden's race just looking at the electoral math, but my math can obviously be wrong.  What I've been saying for some period of time is the markets can live with either Mr. Biden or President Trump for the next four years.  Whether the strongest partisans on the side that loses can make that same accommodation will be something we're going to find out in the coming weeks.

One other reason I think stocks are betting on a quick resolution to this thing was how the markets closed the end of the week.  Friday was a big down open followed by weakness most of the day.  But markets rallied into the close, which is the opposite that I'd expect given the weakness we'd seen all week and the uncertainty over the weekend.

We'll see and that's why at the end we'll wait for the ballots to be counted.