Friday, May 15, 2020

Aftershocks And Changed Behavior

So I've been thinking about some of the aftershocks and changed behavior that might come out of this mess as we emerge from lockdown.  I'll give you a few today and update this list on occasion.

I know somebody who got a haircut about a week ago.  They went to their hair stylist's home and she cut it in her home salon.  Turns out she's been cutting hair at home for years.  Both people wore masks, washed hands etc.  I know the cost of the haircut was about half of what they pay in the salon.  How many barbers or stylists are never going back to their old shops again unless they own them.  Particularly since if they've been cutting hair on the side these past two months they're not giving somebody a cut of what they make and have maybe built up more of a clientele.  Same with nail salons, personal trainers etc.

I'll bet colleges reopen in the fall because they need the revenue and more importantly they can then avoid the question of why a student is paying probably $25-50,000 for the same education they can easily receive via the online programs of other universities.  How many students though after having three months of online learning under their belts end up deciding that's just as good as sitting in a lecture hall, especially if it saves you huge amounts of tuition?  How many parents are going to ask the same question?  How many colleges are going to end up going out of business because of this?  It was already hard to be a small liberal arts college in a rural setting.  This is likely to make that worse.  What happens to the economies of those small towns if students don't come back in the fall?  What happens to the economies of many smaller cities that rely on big-time college sports for revenue?  They may play those sports in the fall but fans are unlikely to be in the seats.  That's going to hurt a place like South Bend, Indiana if Notre Dame has no fans in the stands this fall for football.

Well telemedicine hasten the extinction of the primary care doctor?  Does the current crisis help or hurt the argument for universal health insurance in the US?

Will people go out shopping again once this is all over.  I think yes because somebody like me can't easily buy clothes online and I like to take a look at bigger ticket items before I buy them.  Also I don't like to shop.  Many, including my bride don't feel that way and love online shopping.  Hard to say.

Will those changes you're seeing in the grocery store be permanent?  Will they be applied to other retailers?

Will consumers be willing to give up more of their privacy in exchange for freedom to move about in a world where lockdowns are ending but the virus lingers around?  Will they be willing for example to permit their movements to be followed and their vital signs such as temperature monitored by the government in exchange for the ability to go to bars, restaurants or travel freely again?  I think yes to this question but I know many who extremely disagree with me.

Anyway these are my thoughts.  What are you seeing out there?