Post & Comment {04.18.20}

This is a section of posts where I respond in brief comments to something I've seen in the news or online.  I've highlighted the headline note or post.

On opening the economy.

At some point the hard calculus will need to be made on risk of infection vs risk to the economy.  I have medical friends and clients that insist there are ways to do this as long as everybody practices social distancing, stays home if they have symptoms of Covid-19 and repeatedly washes their hands.  I think we're going to be able to open in stages.  First open up in places that haven't had large amounts of cases and are able to medically monitor and contact trace if the disease reoccurs.   In other parts of the country you open stores and businesses in order of safety.  Open for example a hardware store by having people either wear gloves or sanitize their hands before they come in, require masks and limit the amount of people in the store.  Open restaurants at half capacity etc.  No events with large crowds at least initially.  Testing and tracing are going to be key.

On the stock market.

The market likely overshot to the downside in March and there is a high probability that we're a bit extended at this point.  Nobody knows what happens next because nobody has been through a pandemic like this in living memory.

On who's to blame for the disease.

People want to beat up on the Chinese for Covid.  I think there will be plenty of time to try and figure out what happened when this is all over.  Maybe they could have had a different and better initial response, but then folks could argue that we could have handled this better in the beginning as well.  For me, I think our energies are better focused on getting the best of the virus.

On the President's reelection chances.

I talk to many who are convinced President Trump will win again come November.  I think if he does it will buck nearly every historical precedent in American politics.  Generally the party in power doesn't fare well if the public perceives they've mishandled an economic shock.  I think losing 20+ million jobs qualifies as an economic shock, not to mention the 50-100,000 likely dead from the disease.  I think when looking at the electoral college his numbers were going to be tough even before this calamity.  I believe his only shot will be if he can tell a story of leading the nation through adversity similar to a war by November.  For that to work he's going to need the economy up and running by then.  The national press hates him with a passion last seen towards Nixon so they'll use every trick up their sleeves to blame him for the national response.  Much will also depend on how Biden fares as a candidate and who he picks as his vice-presidential nominee.  Not taking sides here just laying down the facts as I see them.

On posting.

Events have been such that posting has been tough.  There are only so many hours in the day and the markets have required more time and energy these past six weeks.  Posting has taken a back seat.  Hopefully I can get back to a more regular schedule soon.