Post & Comment {Some Quick Thoughts}

Some quick thoughts:

We're now in that 45-60 day window that I think will be critical for getting the economy back on track.   States are beginning to open things up a bit and businesses are starting to develop best practices on how to make customers feel safe.  You can see this already in grocery stores, at least around here; masks are required, limited amount of people in the stores, limits on certain items and aisles are one way now.  Expect other businesses and institutions to spend the next few months on what they need to do as well.  A client of mine is the president of her condo association and she's telling me they're trying to figure out the best way to open their pool this summer, if at all.

Big government is coming back.  Just like 9/11 gave us the TSA, expect to see expanded government services for health care and disease prevention.

Your taxes, my taxes and corporate taxes are going to go up to pay for all of this.

Sooner or later there's going to have to be a plan to deal with all of this debt that governments at all levels are issuing to pay for all of this.  States in particular are going to need help.  Many, and not just Illinois, are dealing with busted governmental pensions. 

Still think the economy will bounce back faster than most people in the financial press are expecting. I'm not saying we're going to see economic levels anywhere near where they were at the end of 2019, but I think we're going to see a sharp bounce back in the coming months.  Investors are underestimating the demand side that's been building out there.

I don't think we'll see a vaccine for at least two years, or at least one that's widely available until then.  I expect therapeutic treatment of the virus to radically improve in the next six months.  If I'm going to eventually contract Covid-19 then I think I'd rather that be next fall or winter when they have a better idea of how to treat me if I get sick.

I think the major market indices are going to be locked in a trading range between now and the election.  Right now I don't really have a good read on what that range might exactly be but broad guesses would say perhaps 2-5% upside from here through early fall to 6-10% downside possible.  Again remember these are guesses.  If you're not a client of mine and you act on this information then you're on your own.  I would say, again, that given the move we've seen off the bottom now is a good time to review your asset allocation strategy and risk criteria if you haven't done that already.  Better yet, hire Lumen Capital Management, LLC and let us help you with that!

Back Friday.