Wearing The Jacket
There's a term unique I think to Chicago politics called "wearing the jacket". It is linked to the very well known political observation that the worst scandals or political issues for elected officials are the ones the public can easily grasp. The public may not understand the complexities of TIF financing {a method used by municipal governments to stimulate economic development in targeted geographic areas}. However, they do understand when a local elected official is arrested in connection with a bribe related to where that TIF money goes. Likewise the public doesn't really get involved in the environmental impact of garbage collection until the trash in their alleys isn't getting collected.
Raising taxes on the middle class, taking hard votes on issues likely to be unpopular, and being connected to some problem or issue that boils over into the political realm are the things politicians hate the most. It's easy saying you're only going to raise taxes on the rich but their aren't enough of them to do the job so inevitably, in one form or the other, the tax burden falls on the middle class because that's where the numbers are. Politicians also hate hard binary votes where they have to declare to be on one side or the other unless they've staked their careers in some manner to that vote or they can hide with the herd. "Wearing the jacket" is when a politician is connected to something or some issue that impacts the lives of people who vote for him or her. These things come up all the time on matters big or small. The political class is well versed on finger pointing when these things occur. For example a meeting of Aldermen in Chicago during a garbage strike will lead to a round of furious blaming. Again, everybody understands the garbage piling up in the alley. An alderman here might then say to the Mayor, "Hey get your act together on dis here garbage problem! I got my guys in da forth ward complainin on da trash and da rats and I'm tired of wearing the jacket on this!"
The great lockdown we're experiencing as a result of Covid is the greatest example of an issue negatively impacting people this nation has seen in maybe two generations. After the fear is going to come anger and somebody is going to be fitted with the jacket. Maybe more than one person. On a national level you're going to see the political Democratic class at all levels point their fingers at the President. The uglier they can make that jacket the better for them. I think the President's only chance of getting re-elected will hinge on whether he can fit that Covid jacket on somebody else given all the news stories out there about the lack of preparedness of the Administration for this. You can see it in some of his press briefings where he is trying to blame local mayors in large cities, governors {mostly Democratic ones} and China. So far I don't think it's working. Public opinion of his handling of this is low.
Add to that the massive unemployment and a death toll now approaching 50,000. Throw in a problematic electoral college map even before this event and you have a situation where an incumbent is looking at unprecedented challenges in gaining another term. I don't do politics on this blog and whether this analysis makes you happy or sad is up to the reader. I'm laying it out as I see it. Those facts may change in the coming weeks. One thing that might help the President is that Biden has been invisible for nearly a month. I think if the election was held today Joe Biden would get 290-300 electoral votes. You need 270 to win the Presidency. We'll see and I'll come back to this observation several times in the coming months to update my thoughts. I'll be interested to see how close I'm going to be when looking at the electoral map.
Back early next week.
Raising taxes on the middle class, taking hard votes on issues likely to be unpopular, and being connected to some problem or issue that boils over into the political realm are the things politicians hate the most. It's easy saying you're only going to raise taxes on the rich but their aren't enough of them to do the job so inevitably, in one form or the other, the tax burden falls on the middle class because that's where the numbers are. Politicians also hate hard binary votes where they have to declare to be on one side or the other unless they've staked their careers in some manner to that vote or they can hide with the herd. "Wearing the jacket" is when a politician is connected to something or some issue that impacts the lives of people who vote for him or her. These things come up all the time on matters big or small. The political class is well versed on finger pointing when these things occur. For example a meeting of Aldermen in Chicago during a garbage strike will lead to a round of furious blaming. Again, everybody understands the garbage piling up in the alley. An alderman here might then say to the Mayor, "Hey get your act together on dis here garbage problem! I got my guys in da forth ward complainin on da trash and da rats and I'm tired of wearing the jacket on this!"
The great lockdown we're experiencing as a result of Covid is the greatest example of an issue negatively impacting people this nation has seen in maybe two generations. After the fear is going to come anger and somebody is going to be fitted with the jacket. Maybe more than one person. On a national level you're going to see the political Democratic class at all levels point their fingers at the President. The uglier they can make that jacket the better for them. I think the President's only chance of getting re-elected will hinge on whether he can fit that Covid jacket on somebody else given all the news stories out there about the lack of preparedness of the Administration for this. You can see it in some of his press briefings where he is trying to blame local mayors in large cities, governors {mostly Democratic ones} and China. So far I don't think it's working. Public opinion of his handling of this is low.
Add to that the massive unemployment and a death toll now approaching 50,000. Throw in a problematic electoral college map even before this event and you have a situation where an incumbent is looking at unprecedented challenges in gaining another term. I don't do politics on this blog and whether this analysis makes you happy or sad is up to the reader. I'm laying it out as I see it. Those facts may change in the coming weeks. One thing that might help the President is that Biden has been invisible for nearly a month. I think if the election was held today Joe Biden would get 290-300 electoral votes. You need 270 to win the Presidency. We'll see and I'll come back to this observation several times in the coming months to update my thoughts. I'll be interested to see how close I'm going to be when looking at the electoral map.
Back early next week.
posted by CR English at 9:55 AM
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