Time To Kick The Sand Out Of The Shoes

Years ago when I worked for a certain brokerage firm, the head of our division got on the squawk box {Yes that's where CNBC got the name for their show} and gave a speech each Tuesday after Labor Day to the troops all over the country.  It was always referred to as the "Time to Kick the Sand Out of the Shoes" speech because he always made that comment somewhere in his talk.  The message was simple.  Summer's over.  Time to get back to work.

In the wheel of the year under which Wall Street marks time, July and August are the only periods when making money takes a backseat to more leisurely pursuits.   As we've discussed many times in the past, folks in the investment class, particularly those out east, tend to be more interested in being at the beach or in the mountains than in front of their screens.  It's one of the reasons that August can sometimes be volatile.  Events come up and the "A" team is away.    There's perhaps no better illustration of that than this year where we likely had more 1% up or down days than any other August in recent memory.  

Now though summer is over.  September and early October with all their historical ugly ghosts looms.  After that  will likely come the mad dash into the end of the year for institutions to show positive numbers for the clients who pay Wall Street's bills.   As we begin to contemplate colder weather here in the north, here's  a partial list of what the investment community is going to be watching:

Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates when they next meet in September?  If so, then by how much?  Irrespective of what happens at the next meeting, are we on the cusp of a more rapid easing cycle going into 2020?.

What will the economic data show in the coming months?  While the latest data is somewhat indicative of a slowing economy, does it mesh with what's happening down on Main Street?   So far the evidence seems to be no, but will that continue in the coming months?

What will be the political and economic implications of Great Britain's continued gyrations on Brexit?

And of course the issue concerning the markets the most, the continued trade war issues, especially those continued contentious talks with the Chinese.

Any Black Swan that comes over the transom.

That's the main list.  Others could come up.  Guess it's time to kick the sand out of the shoes!

Back Wednesday and Friday!