The Last Rose of Summer

'Tis the last rose of summer,

Left blooming alone;

All her lovely companions

Are faded and gone;

No flower of her kindred,

No rosebud is nigh,

To reflect back her blushes,

Or give sigh for sigh"

    -Thomas Moore

This week marks the last official week of summer, ending as it always does with Labor Day.  It is ironic that we say this holiday is summer's end because at least in Chicago, September can serve up some of our best weather.  The heat's usually gone, as is the humidity.  The days are still long enough that you can enjoy the outdoors after work or on the weekend and the autumn rains generally hold off until the end of the month.  

The end of August is for most of us usually languid and bittersweet.  Time seems to slow down a bit as we enjoy this final burst of summer.  Even if the kids are back in school, it never feels like it's officially started until after Labor Day.  We also have some time to remember what we did over the past few months or regret the things we said we'd accomplish but never seemed to get done while the weather was nice. 

It is the same with the markets.  Stocks will be thinly traded this week and the investment community will concentrate on one last jaunt to whatever watering hole they use as a summer playground.  For one final part of 2019 the rest of the world will be shut away for a little while.  It is not as if the issues concerning the markets  will go away.  The President I'm sure will tweet something provocative.  The pundits will talk about whether the economy is really weakening, whether interest rates will continue to decline or our current trade spats with the rest of the world, especially those with the Chinese.  Others will take a peek at the next year's elections or point to whatever crisis is likely to brew as the weather cools.  These events though will be shunted aside and put on the back burner until after Labor Day.  The world will slow down for a bit and that's a good thing. 

I too am going to take the rest of this week off in terms of this blog.  We'll shut this down now until sometime the week after Labor Day.  First post here will probably be the 5th or 6th of September.  I have a car to drive home from Rhode Island over the holiday weekend and it's going to take some time for me to get organized when I'm back.

Shakespeare famously stated that "summer's lease hath all to short a date".  Those of us that live in parts of the country where we actually get cold weather for months at a time know true well the meaning of his words.  Summer goes by so quickly for most of us.  It seems like only yesterday when we were getting ready for Memorial Day.  Now September is nearly upon us while football, the true herald of autumn, has already started!  I'm a bit out in the country when I'm in Rhode Island.  The little place where we stay was once a farm and there's still a field out in back.  Perhaps because of that  you can feel summer waning away now.  I notice the day's aren't as long as they were a few weeks back.  The light looks a bit different at dusk.  Nights are a bit more crisp, it was in the 50s here last night and they serve up a reminder that the principle season of the north is not the one you're currently in.  Crickets, the other heralds of autumn, now chirp incessantly throughout the day.  It is time to take a break and enjoy these things one more time and smell those last roses of summer.  Whatever issues we have can wait till the clock rolls into September.  Well see you after the return trip from the east coast unless something warrants a break in from out this way.

I will leave you with two thoughts that  merit more discussion at a later date.  The first is evidence is starting to mount that the President is now more of a headwind to both stocks and the economy than a help.  The second is what I currently see as a higher probability that the President will not be reelected next year.  Don't read any political commentary into these statements.  I am simply analyzing numbers and prospects, while leaving you something to chew on until we meet again next month.

I will See you then.