Volatility And Other Matters

A few quick thoughts on the markets and other things.  I will try and do something more substantial on what's going on when I can find the time to do so.

Volatility has picked up in the markets but so far we've managed to avoid a major decline.  For all their gyrations, stocks have more or less traded in place this past week.  We are still higher than we were on August 7th which so far has marked the low for this recent corrective phase.  We are still only about 3% off the most recent all time highs as well.

Volatility is likely being magnified because it's August and market liquidity is not as deep as it might be at other times of the year.   Volatility is how we speak of the day to day movement in stock prices but for the most part investors relate to volatility in terms of market declines.  Presumably they're not to worried about price movements when stocks go higher. 

I still don't think it's gong to end well for the protestors in Hong Kong.

There is an increased probability right now that the short-term trend for stocks is lower.  So far the evidence that the longer-term bull market is in danger does not seem to be present.

So far the evidence isn't there for the US to have a recession next year.  We are already in a profits's recession and growth may slow but a recession seems a low probability risk at the moment.  Economic statistics are too strong for that so far.  We may see a slowing economy but a recession still seems like a low probability bet.

I also think there is an increasing probability that President Trump will not be reelected next year.  Again we don't do politics on this blog,  I am simply looking at numbers.  I will go into this in more detail in the coming weeks.