Ohio

I had hoped to put this blog on a bit of respite here in August but at least so far events are keeping me up on the turret so to speak.  In that vein, yesterday as I  sat  watching stocks regurgitate most of the past six months gains, the thought occurred to me that the shooting in Dayton, Ohio over the weekend may have just made the President's path to reelection a bit more problematic.  I grew up about 50 miles from Dayton and spent much time there as a kid.  I don't know much about what they call the Oregon District where the shooting occurred but I'm guessing by what I've read that it's an old industrial district, gentrified and repurposed for modern more upscale consumption.  

Dayton besides being the home of the Wright Brothers was at one point about as middle of America as you could find.  Dayton sits in that central part of Ohio that often decides how that state will fare in national elections.  Ohio like Indiana and Illinois are almost two separate states based on how they were originally settled.  The southern parts of these states were settled by folks coming from the south along the Ohio River.  The middle and the north became more industrialized and were settled by immigrants to work in these cities and farmers coming out of the east coast.  Ohio also has this historic belt in the middle that has straddled this  north south divide.  Most national elections in Ohio are decided by how this region votes.  In 2016 the middle part of the state swung heavily for Mr. Trump.  This is why Ohio is the ultimate swing state and it's also why seven Presidents have come from there.  Ohio has always mattered in Presidential politics.

Given that background here's why the President's electoral challenge just became perhaps a tad more difficult over the weekend.  Gun violence I think is going to shape up as a major issue now in next year's elections and is an issue that I don't see helping the President or the Republicans now in Ohio.  Mass shootings like that don't happen in Dayton, Ohio.  Growing up in that part of the world I knew many people who owned a gun.  May father owned a shotgun that he kept under the bed.  But most folks back then would have thought owning a modified gun whose original version was meant for military use crazy.  I'm sure there's many people in that middle part of Ohio who still feel that way and perhaps a few more that may have come around to that way of thinking given the events over the weekend in Dayton and El Paso.  

My prediction is a democratic candidate calling for some method to either eliminate or limit the impact of semi-automatic weapons will play better in Ohio than they would have before Dayton.  Will it be enough to swing Ohio blue?  Too soon to tell, but Ohio and its 18 electoral votes may now be more in play than the pundits would have thought before last weekend. The President likely has very few options for reelection if he loses Ohio.  This is simply an observation and there's no political point trying to be made.  That news may make you cheer or cry, I'm just looking at the math and the events.

China stopping agriculture purchases also doesn't help as Ohio farmers sell a lot of soy beans over there.

We'll see how the market shakes out today and may be back with some thoughts on trading tomorrow.