Seasonal Weakness

Somebody besides me discusses market seasonality.  Chart of the Day's take on seasonal weakness.

"The stock market is about to enter what has historically been the weakest half of the year. Today's chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 during the six months of November through and including April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950 (see blue line). While the May through October period has seen mild gains during major bull markets (i.e. 1950-56 & 1982-97), the overall subpar performance during the months of May through October is noteworthy. Hence the saying, 'sell in May and walk away."

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time without notice.

Link:  Please note that while this chart is free if you give them your email address, the rest of their site is subscription based.  Chart of the Day: Seasonal Weakness.

P.S. To My Most Recent Post

GDP was released this morning and it came up a cropper futures are down about .75% as of this point.  When I was writing my latest S&P update-which was actually written last night and set for today-I forgot that GDP was going to be released!  

At any rate, futures don't like that versus expectations of an annualized 1% GDP growth, the economy barely grew in the first quarter.  It grew at an annualized 0.2% rate.  Poor weather didn't help things, as did continued poor performance in the commodity and oil space.  Yet there is likely more to this number that will come out today as the data is dissected.  

The one upside that traders may take away from this is that an interest rate increase is now likely off the table at least in June.  That may stabilize things after the market opens.  Will See.

an tSionna {04.29.15}

Chart of the S&P 500 ETF SPY.  {Chart is from FINVIZ.com.}  The S&P 500 made new highs in the past several trading sessions but sold off Monday and made a lower low yesterday.  Right now it is at trading right up against resistance.  It is also overbought by our work across multiple time frames.  I have no predictive power about where the index might go in the short term.  For all I know it may power to new highs.  However, probability suggests that a confluence of factors could challenge the S&P at least over the next few trading sessions.  

First the market will be attuned to any change in language issuing later today from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.  News that the Fed's will begin tightening interest rates sooner than expected or that economic growth is weaker than investors have been assuming could put pressure on stocks.  On the other hand an all clear from the Fed, that is a signal that nothing is going to happen for awhile might push stocks over the top again to new highs.

Further negative news out of Baltimore or more strange going's on in the mid-east.  Yesterday, the Iranians diverted a Marshall Islands flagged ship to one of their ports, briefly causing stocks to tumble when it was erroneously reported that they had diverted a US flagged vessel with US sailors on board.  Markets don't like these sorts of things.

Continued negative earnings news.  Yesterday gave us several high profile companies with disappointing earnings results.

Or again the fact that the market is now overbought by our work, with the S&P 500 up a bit over 3% this month after yesterday.  Again also trading at resistance, a level it's been turned away from several times in the past few months.

Please note that I'm not saying that stocks can't go higher or that they just won't churn around here for a bit.  Probability, however,  suggests that when looking on a historical basis it may not be on a straight line north.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.

PS.  If you want the positive interpretation of this chart, a lot of folks who follow money flows would argue that each time the market tests resistance and is repulsed, in the absence of news, makes it more likely for a move through these old barriers to higher prices.  I think there's some credence to that argument but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't occur right now.

I have been very quiet in client accounts recently.  More on that at another time.

Thoughts {04.28.15}

Markets popped higher yesterday morning, then promptly turned it around and are selling off today.  Seems there was a lot for it to ponder.  We'll take various parts of this in no particular order.  

First up is Apple {AAPL} which reported a blow out quarter last night.  Markets had been looking for positive things out of the company and they delivered.  You can go here if you want to see a breakdown of the results.   The problem as I see it {and as Grumpy reminded me yesterday} is who is left to buy the stock.  Good news here has been telegraphed for a while.  It's likely we're seeing a small sell the news reaction in the stock.

Next up, the Federal Reserve begins a two day meeting today where an increase in interest rates will be on the table.  Investors increasingly believe that this won't occur now until September.  I used to think we'd see an increase starting in June but I now think that's off the table.  I'm also on record as saying that I don't think small increases from such low historic levels will make that much difference to the economy.  However, probability suggests that stocks are on hold until we hear what they have to say.  

Greece as always seems to be at the top of the news.  A Greek exit from the Euro seems to be more and more priced into the markets.  Nobody, however, really knows what such an event will mean.  There's always collateral damage in a situation like this, usually in places nobody thinks to look.  

The earthquake in Nepal and it's aftershocks are approaching biblical standards of appalling.  Nepal's Prime Minister is quoted today saying that 10,000 people could be dead.  That usually means numbers that are much much higher.  

Finally there's the events in Baltimore last night where civilian authorities seem to have lost complete control of the situation.  I'll have more on Baltimore at a later time.  Suffice it to say today that there's a lot of collateral damage that will come out of that riot and it bodes to be a long hot summer in many cities this year if things don't improve.

And there you have it.  Enough events to give even a healthy market pause, not to mention one that was short term over bought.  Stay tuned!

*Long ETFs that hold Apple as a position in client and personal accounts.

Young People: Invest In Your 401{k}

Young people please invest in your 401{k} plan if you have one at work!  Business Insider recently ran three scenarios that showed the powerful advantage of compounding assets over time.    They used a long term average growth rate of five percent.  Here's their three scenarios:

We have three investors who take different approaches to retirement saving:

• Our first investor starts saving $300 per month at the age of 25 {Purple Line}
• THe second follows Altucher's advice, waits ten years, and starts saving $300 per month at 35 {Orange line}
• The third investor waits even longer and starts saving at 40, but in order to try to catch up, puts $600 into her account each month {Blue Line}

This works because of the long term advantage of compound interest growth.  That is if you start with $100 dollars and earn 5% then next year you start with $105.  Assuming that same 5% growth rate, by the end of that first year, you end up with $110.25 as opposed to just $110 if you had a simple interest calculation.   It may not seem like much at the beginning but over time that little difference works out to a lot.  If you want to see what a lot is, take a look at the chart above based on Business Insider's calculations.  

If you apply these calculations on your own remember a couple of things.  

Business Insider in their post assumes a 5% rate  of return.  Your returns will depend on your asset allocation.  Your asset allocation will depend on where you fit in the risk return profile.  The more aggressive you are in your assets the higher potential return but also a higher potential for loss and higher volatility.  {More on asset allocation at some later time}.

The great thing about starting young is that you have the ability to let the power of compounding work over a very long period of time-nearly 40 years if you plan to retire when you are 65.  The other great thing is that you have a much greater ability to withstand the inevitable periods when your assets decline in value due to a bear market {yes you will see a few of these in your lifetime}.

Finally the other great thing is that the money in your 401{k} under current law grows tax deferred.  That is under current law you're not taxed on any of the gains in the account it until you start to withdraw it sometime later on.  There are rules about when you can withdraw and at what age but for now what you need to understand is the power of tax deferral.  Let me show this by using an example.  I think most young people should for the most part use diversified investments in 401{k}s, preferably ETFs or if not these, then mutual funds.  But let's say in this example you invest $100 and buy 1 share of company XYZ.  XYZ is the next big thing.  It's stock takes off on a multi-year run.  By the time you are 50, that $100 investment has ballooned to $1,000,000.  You then sell the stock.  Under today's rules if that sale was in a non-tax deferred vehicle you could pay capital gains taxes of between $150,000 and $200,000.  {Rate depends on your income level and again there's a bit more to this than what I'm showing in this simple example, but it's enough to get my point across.}.  In a 401{k}, under current rules, you pay no taxes until years later when you start to withdraw the money.  At that point what you're required to withdraw is based on actuary tables and what you have to pay in taxes is based on your current income tax bracket.  Assuming that many people are in a lower bracket when they retire, this is a huge potential lifetime savings.

So save that money youngsters!  Not sure you should count on things like social security by the time you get ready to leave the work force.  Also pay off your student loans if you have them as fast as you can.  That's a subject for another time.

Back Monday.

Link:  BusinessInsider.com:  Actually Young People SHOULD Invest in their 401{k} Plans.

Sometimes There's Just Not Much To Say

I don't have much to add today to the investment matrix except to note the meandering activity of the major indices.  These have all flirted recently with their old highs, only to be repelled time after time  at resistance.   Just last week US markets looked poised to test these old highs and potentially break ou.  What followed was a nasty two day sell-off, although most of that as we discussed on Friday had to do with what was happening overseas.  Stocks yesterday rallied hard, almost as if Friday hadn't occurred.  They started strong out of the gate this morning but then seem to have lost their steam as of this writing.

For whatever reason, whether it be higher valuations, tepid economic growth, fear of rising interest rates, lower corporate earnings so far this year or a combination of the above, stocks in the main don't seem to want to move higher right now.  Yet, so far in 2015, each sell-off we've seen has been met with buyers at lower levels.  Probability suggests that activity will continue until the dip buyers aren't rewarded for that activity.

I'm not sure any of us knows what this means.  Some see a major topping action in the markets.  Economic activity seems too strong for that from the numbers we've seen.  Growth is tepid but growth is there so far and as long as the economy expands it has historically been supportive of stocks.  By that I mean we might see a correction at some point but that correction is not likely the stuff that a bear market is made of given our current level of economic activity.

Others see a pause as markets digest the last two years of gains and they work off the heady valuation levels we've seen.  I'm a bit more in this camp for the economic reasons sited above.  But I'll add a few things to chew on when we think about stocks going forward, and by going forward I mean the coming six months or so.

One is that we don't know how the Greek problem is going to play out in Europe.  There's a higher probability today that Greece exits the Euro in some form.  Investors aren't as concerned about the same kind of contagion from that as they perhaps were a few years ago.  But nobody really knows how that will play out if the event occurs.  The other is that the middle-east and parts of arabic northern Africa continue their descent into another level of hell.  It seems half of the mid-east and northern Africa wants to leave and get to Europe and the other half is pushing them along via guns or starvation.  That problem is only going to get worse as is the potential there for some flash-point to erupt into something larger.  In particular right now I'd point to Yemen.  Then there's the little problem in Ukraine which continues to fester away.  Summer is coming there and with it the likely potential for more fighting.

Speaking of summer, I'd remind you that the next six months are historically and statistically the weakest in terms of stock market performance.  We've discussed market seasonality before.  See here.  Probability suggests if we are going to have a correction then this is the most likely time for it to occur.  We make no predictions right now in that regard.  We just let our indicators be our guide.

Right now I don't really have much to say in regards to the markets.  I find that most everything out there is a rehash of the same things.  One can only talk about the Greeks, market valuations etc so many times.  I have a bit of business to catch up with tomorrow and Thursday so posting may be a bit light.  I know for sure I'm out tomorrow unless something comes over the transom.  Thursday's a wildcard.  Back for sure with something at the end of the week.

Spain

Here's my thoughts on Spain and by a certain extension Western Europe.  I've been to Europe now three times in the past seven years, Ireland in 2008 just before the financial crisis hit, Germany and Italy at the end of 2011 during what would have been the depths of the recession in the Euroland and Spain this year.  Spain at least has the feel of the US back in 2011 when things here felt like they were starting to get better.  This is also in line with what the data and the European markets are telling us about their economies.  Spain, like a lot of other places in the world right now seems to be headed in a direction that few can see what the end destination is like.  Like other places, Spain is headed somewhere with the EU but we don't know where yet.

I can do pretty well in Spanish-a vestige of my days living in Villahermosa, Mexico.  As such I can read newspapers converse and order food in restaurants.  I was surprised at how warmly we were treated in Spain.  I was also surprised about how little events outside of Spain seemed to affect the national conscious.  Outside of the crash of Germanwings flight 9525, a flight that had originated in Barcelona, most of the newspapers dealt with stories inside Spain.  I never for example saw the ongoing crisis in Greece on the front page of the newspapers.  Now it could be that the week we were there was an anomaly as it was Holy Week and as such more or less a holiday season there, but outside events seemed of little concern to the locals.  One other thing, I never saw more than about 10 minutes of TV while there so perhaps international news is more consumed via broadcast.

Barcelona reminds me of Chicago in how it industrially expanded in the 19th Century, the "2nd City" complex it seems to have with Madrid and the friendliness of the people.  We have Frank Lloyd Wright,  they have the Spanish architect Antoni Gaudi.  We have the Sears Tower {or whatever folks are supposed to call it now}, they have La Sagrada Familia.  We have great sports teams, they have FC. Barcelona.  We have Wrigley Field and the United Center-well known sports facilities in the US, they have Camp Nou-where FC Barcelona plays.  We have deep dish pizza and Chicago style hot dogs, they have Tapas.  I could go on and on...Did I mention the people were friendly?

Finally I'll say this about Spain and the European Union.  From my experience having been in five countries of the EU in the past few years, there is a general consensus that a united European face to the world is a good idea.....As long as Spaniards can be Spaniards, Germans can be Germans, the Irish can be themselves etc.  The consensus breaks down at least among the masses when one country has to reach into its pocketbook to help another.  Germans don't want to bail out the Spanish and the Spaniards have no interest in helping Greece.  There is no real internal system of transfers like we for example have here that sees net dollars flow on a per capital basis out of California and into Mississippi.  That's going to be a hard problem for them to solve if they ever can.

Until then though the food was great!!!

Thoughts {04.17.15}

No post on Spain again today as market events are putting my focus elsewhere.  Overseas markets are getting schmessed today.  A crackdown on trading has Chinese markets down around 5%.  Moves by banks to limit their exposure to Greek bonds has those markets rattled as well.  Maybe though, just maybe, these markets are selling off because they are very overbought by our work.  

Here's a look at the Chinese ETF GXC {held by us in certain client strategies}.

Chart comes to us from FINVIZ.com.

See how GXC has gone parabolic in April.  Then note that Chinese stocks have actually done much better than this in their local currency.  I heard on TV today that in local markets Chinese stocks are up 32% this year.  While I can't verify this number, I do know that they are up more at home than we've seen here do to the strength in the dollar.  That is the gains here are muted by the strength in the dollar.  European stocks, while not experiencing the same sort of move have also had a pretty good run so far in 2015.  There may be more to this as we move forward but for now I'm inclined to view this as markets reacting to an overbought condition.

Volatility may be about to raise it's ugly head but volatility is not the same sort of risk as most might assume when they think about the stock market.  Warren Buffet agrees with me on this.  See here.  This is also going to be the subject of a future post.

Back Monday, hopefully to write about Spain.  Tired though of making promises I can't keep. 

Post Tax Day Thoughts

Will get to my thoughts on Spain hopefully tomorrow.  In the meantime here's some post tax day thoughts from an article written in the Washington Post yesterday by Robert Samuelson:  {Highlights mine.}

1) Historically, the income-tax burden isn’t high. In 2014, federal individual income taxes amounted to 8.1 percent of the nation’s income (gross domestic product). It’s been noticeably higher. From 1995 to 2000, it averaged 8.9 percent of GDP. The tax cuts of George W. Bush — most of which have been accepted by the Obama administration — have lightened the income-tax burden. For about 80 percent of Americans, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare exceed income taxes, says the Treasury Department.

2) The remaining income-tax burden falls mainly on the rich and the upper-middle class. From 1979 to 2011, the share of income taxes paid by the wealthiest 1 percent rose from 18 percent to 35 percent, and the share paid by the richest fifth (including the top 1 percent) rose from 65 percent to 88 percent, says the Congressional Budget Office. This reflects two factors: growing income inequality (the rich pay more because they have more) and lower tax rates on the middle class. Average income-tax rates on the middle fifth of Americans have dropped from 7.4 percent in 1979 to 2.4 percent in 2011, reports CBO. 

3) Even this lightened tax burden is increasingly invisible. Most people never see the money they pay in taxes. Income taxes are not only withheld; they’re overwithheld, so that many taxpayers get a refund. The Internal Revenue Service is running a mandatory saving system. (As of early April, the IRS had issued 77 million refunds worth $217 billion.) Payroll taxes are also automatically deducted. 

4) The IRS is also a welfare agency: The tax system is so complex that almost everyone benefits from some break. In 2011, 28 million poor families received $63 billion under the Earned Income Tax Credit, reports the Urban Institute’s Elaine Maag. Homeowners get the mortgage interest deduction. Parents get the child tax credit. Itemizers get the charitable deduction.

Link:  Washington Post:  The Tax Revolt RIP?  {You may have to register with the Washington Post to read this article.}

Out Today-But Read These

Like I said I need to be out today, but wanted to leave you with something anyway.  From time to time I am starting to publish posts that I find to be thoughtful analytical perspectives on various aspects of current society.  I try to find articles that are descriptive of current events and can help in my investment analysis.  There is much that goes into the investment matrix and not all of it has to do simply with earnings, profits and losses.  For example you will not have a healthy stock market in a country that does not have an economy based on the profit motive, laws that protect private property and an educational system that helps the economic advancement of its young.  There's a reason therefore that the United States has a market near all time highs and there is no market in Yemen or Afghanistan.

I will try to find articles that are as devoid of politics as possible and in some ways are related to the investment world.  I am interested in analysis not in somebody's hidden agenda.  I may not agree with everything that's written in these pieces but will pass them along because I think it's important for you to read them and understand the underlying forces that are propelling the modern world.  With that in mind, today I urge you to read:

Charles Hugh Smith, "The Changing World of Work: America's Nine Classes".  I think Mr. Smith does a very good job of analyzing and developing a better theory of American's socio-economic status today than most others I've seen.  I think he leaves out a few representative groups here, {i.e. recent college graduates for example} but I think otherwise it's something worth five minutes of your time to read.  

In the same vein regard classes in society but with a more international context go read, the last three posts over at "Future Brief".

For a look into the "Deep State" that Smith briefly discusses above go read "The XX Committee". Its author, John R. Schindler, has deep ties to the defense and national security state.  

Linked from the same Smith post above is an article about the welfare state that if it is true is very disappointing in that it shows how much money is wasted on that system and how many ways there are for folks to scam governments at all levels.  Go read "I Live Better on Welfare Then I Ever Did Working".  Again I will say before anybody draws any conclusions to this article, there is noway to verify if it is true.  

That's a pretty good list and enough for anybody interested to get through in the next few days.  Out tomorrow so next post here is Thursday.

an tSionna {04.13.15}

Below you will find a basket of international country ETFs.  Specifically you will see the S&P 500 for comparison sake, Japan,China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Spain, the Unitied Kingdom, and Ireland.  The list is meant to be comparative but not exhaustive.  I've said for a long period of time {now going back a few years} that I thought international markets would at some point outperform the US.  That prognostication looked somewhat silly back at the end of the year.  In the performance chart below {chart is from Stockcharts.com} you can see with the exception of India, the US smoked it versus the international scene last year.  You leave India out of the list below and that international basket was down a bit over 8% last year on a price basis.

The tables have turned in 2015.  Below is the same list year to date.  All with the exception of Brazil and Mexico are beating the US major markets.  Returns are even better in most of the world's home currencies.  

Three year returns have also started to normalize.  Again Brazil and Mexico are the exceptions.

Probability still suggests these markets will continue to perform well going forward versus the US as most of these markets valuations ares still cheaper versus the US.  Not saying these are going higher in a straight line or that there won't be a correction at some point.  Also folks need to note that some of these markets have much higher volatility than the US and you need to take that into any investment calculation.  You need to therefore know your tolerance for volatility and higher levels of individual market risk.  Given that, I am saying that I believe you need to have a certain percentage of your assets abroad if you want some growth in the coming years.  ETFs make that an easy task to accomplish.  I am out either tomorrow or Wednesday so there will be only one post between now and Thursday.  Will get to that post on Spain this week.  Promise!

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500, Brazil and China in certain investment strategies and certain client accounts.  Long representations of most of these countries in international and regional ETFs in client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time.

an tSionna {04.09.15}

Chart of the S&P 500 ETF SPY.  Chart comes from FINVIZ.com.  Market is still locked in that trading range we've seen for most to of the last six months.  Probability suggests that upside could be limited until the current earnings situation receives a bit more clarity.

Back on Monday and I'll give you my impressions of Spain and what I think by extension is going on in Europe.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in both client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time.

Rahm Emanuel

Rahm Emanuel won a 2nd term last night as Chicago's mayor.  The campaign was unique in that it was the first time that a Chicago Democratic machine candidate has ever been forced into a run-off election and pitted the progressive wing of the Democratic party against the established political power structure.  This campaign was obviously a big deal if you lived in our region.  What happens to Chicago in some way effects the other 6.2 million of us that live in the communities and counties surrounding the city.   But the election has implications beyond here, reaching into the presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton and likely that of Jeb Bush down the road.  

We have an excellent columnist over at the Chicago Tribune named John Kass.  Mr. Kass has long chronicled the political comings and goings of the city and he pulls no punches when giving us his interpretation of events.  Mr. Kass even has a term for it, "The Chicago Way".  That's why I urge you to go read his latest column on the elections last night.    "Hillary can look to Chicago to Understand Power"  will tell you much of what you need to know in understanding the fight that is going to occur over the next two years to control the White House.  

We really don't have two political parties any more, at least not like the majority of us thought of them when we were growing up and you are over 40.  Instead we have a political class.  Men and women who are attracted to pulling the levers of government at all levels.  These folks become Republicans or Democrats today often less out of some devotion to a political ideology than out of necessity.  If I for example wanted to run for political office in Chicago I would need to be a Democrat, regardless of what I thought.  It's simply impossible to get elected otherwise in the City.  If I'm running in most of Texas, I'd need to be a Republican.  This is not a column to rant against the system or the folks running for office.  Indeed, some run out of a sense of public service and others do it because they are attracted to power.  It's not my place to judge these people in their motivations, nor is it my place to judge the many who follow in their wake as advisers and what not.  I invest money for clients and so I need to understand these things and how it will effect the investment environment.  That's why I think last night's election here has national implications and why I'd urge you if you can to go read Mr. Kass's words.  

{Note that the column mentioned above may be behind a paywall and you might have to register with the Tribune in order to read this if you are not already a subscriber.}

ETF Report Card

Here's how various ETFs that we follow did during the first quarter.  This is a representative sample of different asset classes.  You can double-click on each chart to make it larger.  The S&P 500 was up a bit less than 1% in the quarter.  It's the first box to the left below.

International and REITs led the way in the chart above.  International corporate bonds fared the worst both here and in the chart below.

Above we can see that long term US Treasuries did surprisingly well.  

Below are the various sectors of the S&P 500 by their ETFs.  Healthcare and cyclicals lead the way.  Utilities and financials underperformed.  Surprisingly, energy was not the worst performer in the index.

Charts are from Stockcharts.com.

*We are long various sectors depicted above via ETFs or via ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and or personal accounts.  Positions can vary in accounts depending on account strategy and the unique risk/reward characteristics of our clients.

They're Playing Baseball Today.

Winter was just long and dreadful up here in the north but today {or here last night if you are Cubs or Cardinals fans} they're playing baseball again.  Life is good!

"The one constant through all the years Ray has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again, but baseball has marked the time. This field, this game is a part of our past Ray. It reminds us of all once was good and could be again."-James Earl Jones as Terence Mann in "Field of Dreams."

Thoughts {04.06.15}

I'm back, if a bit jet lagged, from Spain.  I'll have a few thoughts on what I've observed over there later in the week.  For now here are a few things on my mind today.

1.)  I haven't had a chance to review the final numbers for the first quarter but on a ball park basis this is what I think major indices printed.  S&P 500-flattish maybe up a half percent or so, US mid-caps between 3-4%, US small caps 4-5%.  Over seas markets ruled the roost.  MSCI EAFE and others were up 5-6% in the first quarter.  That's measured in US dollars.  Most overseas bourses were up much more in terms of their own currencies.

2.)  Last Friday's job data was a real stinker coming in much below most Wall Street estimates.  I think this is a one-off, likely largely related to weather in the northeast and mid-west, economy just feels better.  I think good weather will make up for much of this in the months ahead but we'll have to see.  Remember markets were disappointed with an increase of only 125,000 jobs last month.  Most would have killed for that number a few years ago.

3.)  In line with that, Europe, or rather Spain, feels better on an economic front.  I know they still have big problems there but the place had a US 2011 feel about it.  That is, things felt more like they did here a few years ago when things were just starting to take off.  I can't give you concrete examples of this, it's just 30 years in the business gives you a sense about this and my sense is that things are now getting better there as well.  Again more on this later.

4.)  Picking Kentucky to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship reminds me of buying a super hot growth stock right before it's going to report bad economic numbers and crater.  My final four were Notre Dame {who almost helped me win my pool if they had beaten Kentucky}, Villanova, Duke and Wisconsin.  I have Wisconsin winning tonight, but no chance to win the pool.  Go Big 10.