Thoughts {04.06.15}

I'm back, if a bit jet lagged, from Spain.  I'll have a few thoughts on what I've observed over there later in the week.  For now here are a few things on my mind today.

1.)  I haven't had a chance to review the final numbers for the first quarter but on a ball park basis this is what I think major indices printed.  S&P 500-flattish maybe up a half percent or so, US mid-caps between 3-4%, US small caps 4-5%.  Over seas markets ruled the roost.  MSCI EAFE and others were up 5-6% in the first quarter.  That's measured in US dollars.  Most overseas bourses were up much more in terms of their own currencies.

2.)  Last Friday's job data was a real stinker coming in much below most Wall Street estimates.  I think this is a one-off, likely largely related to weather in the northeast and mid-west, economy just feels better.  I think good weather will make up for much of this in the months ahead but we'll have to see.  Remember markets were disappointed with an increase of only 125,000 jobs last month.  Most would have killed for that number a few years ago.

3.)  In line with that, Europe, or rather Spain, feels better on an economic front.  I know they still have big problems there but the place had a US 2011 feel about it.  That is, things felt more like they did here a few years ago when things were just starting to take off.  I can't give you concrete examples of this, it's just 30 years in the business gives you a sense about this and my sense is that things are now getting better there as well.  Again more on this later.

4.)  Picking Kentucky to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship reminds me of buying a super hot growth stock right before it's going to report bad economic numbers and crater.  My final four were Notre Dame {who almost helped me win my pool if they had beaten Kentucky}, Villanova, Duke and Wisconsin.  I have Wisconsin winning tonight, but no chance to win the pool.  Go Big 10.