Post & Comment {01.14.20}

This is a section of posts where I respond in brief comments to something I've seen in the news or online.  I've highlighted the headline note or post.

On the killing of Iranian General Suleiman.
Not to many people outside of Iran are going to mourn Suleiman's death.  The US sent a message to the Iranians that the game had changed.  We'll have to see how they respond.   Anybody who says they know for sure how this will play out is either lying or lying to themselves.  One possibility is they lay low for a bit.  I don't see anything in this that is going to change Iran's ways.

Why stocks are going up.

Combine beginning of the year positive fundamentals, positive cash flows in January for markets, favorable seasonal patterns and no real alternative to equities right now and you have the cocktail mixture for markets to advance.  I'd note though that markets are now over bought by our work.

On the President being impeached.

Zero chance based on the evidence at hand that the Senate votes to convict.  This analysis is unchanged from the last time I wrote this column.

The President will win reelection.

Odds have moved slightly in the President's favor the past few weeks as the news for him has been mostly good.  Let's call it now 52-48 in his favor.   Much will depend on who the Democrats nominate.

College football is finally over!

Congrats to LSU.  Irish finished 12th in final poll.  Fun game to watch last night.  That game should have been played two weeks ago or at least on New Year's day.  No reason to be finishing up the football season as conference basketball gets into full swing.

I'm hoping to get back on a more regular schedule here over the next few weeks.  Will try to post here again at least one more time this week.  I will commit to one post a week going forward until things settle down for me.