This Winter

Today is the first official day of autumn, although habitually for most Americans the season arrives the Tuesday after Labor Day.   Until recently in human memory autumn invoked a certain amount of dread, especially for those societies in the zones on our planet that experienced large variations in the seasons.  Fall was the make or break time of crop harvesting that had to last people through the hard winter months while the cold was feared in an era before inside heating systems. 

We are experiencing some of that now because many are worried what will happen to us and exposure to the virus when we are forced to spend more time inside.  Here's my guess.  I think we won't have a normal cold weather season, especially up here in the north, but I don't think it will be as bad as last year.  Here's why.

First a vaccine is coming.  Now it may not be as powerful as many hope and there certainly won't be enough doses to vaccinate everyone when it first arrives but I'm guessing that by January you're going to see the first pictures of people getting vaccinated for Covid.  Vaccinations will move slowly at first but I'm thinking you'll see a pick-up in availability as the winter progresses.  This may not be enough on its own to get people less worried about the disease but it should be an enormous psychological boost in the months ahead.

Second, better therapeutics.  I don't want to get Covid but if I'm going to come down with the virus I'd rather get it today than when it first appeared last January.  We know so much more about the virus today than we did back when it was first appearing in this country.  Similarly I'd rather come down with Covid six months from now because we're going to know even more then.  Better therapeutics and perhaps a belief that the virus isn't something akin to a death sentence should make people more confident about being out and about.

Third is testing.    I think by late this year you are going to start seeing regulatory approval for at home testing devices where the results are nearly instantaneous and can be downloaded to a device like your smartphone.  Imagine being able to be confident as you enter a crowded restaurant that all the people sitting around you as well as the staff in the place have tested negative for the virus.  Well they already are doing that in Wuhan and other parts of China.  It may not yet work as well as advertised over there but think about what that could potentially mean if there is an easy way to get tested at home, maybe every day.  Think about what being able to have mass testing would do for many sectors of the US economy.  You could get on a plane again, go to a restaurant, go to a sporting or cultural event, even go on vacation to a resort or cruise if you could be confident that those you come into contact with aren't carrying the virus.

Finally we are adapting to the disease.  Masks, social distancing, being outside are all the norm right now. Expect this to carry over even into cooler weather.  You might not eat outside is subzero weather at a restaurant but you might be willing to eat under a well ventilated and heated tent.  Yes it might not be as warm as you'd like but if the choice is wearing an extra layer of clothing or staying at home, you might opt for the sweater.   Adaptation will be the new normal and we'll figure out ways to go about our business as the months pass.

So this is what I think is coming.  I don't think the disease is ever going away, it may become like the flu.  Then again flu kills something like 60,000 people on average in the US every year and we don't stop life for it.  So it will be with Covid at some point I think.  Life will likely never be as it was before the virus but whatever the new normal will end up being, I think it can be pretty close to how life was back then, especially with a few adaptations.  As we find that new normal, life and the economy will improve.

Back Thursday or Friday.