Go Read

I get asked all the time why the stock market has performed so well after it's schmeissing last winter given all the bad news.  For at least one answer to that question go read "Why Mr. Market Ignores a World in Turmoil" over at the Wall Street Journal. {Paywall}.  It provides the best explanation I've seen yet for the likely reasons investors have been shrugging off the turmoil.  I'd also point out the likelihood that at some point the markets start focusing on the coming elections here and those calm waters might not be so complacent in the coming months.

Speaking of the elections, back on March 25th I said this:  

"I think the probability is also rising that Mr. Trump might not even be the Republican nominee.  My thinking on this is if it looks by June that the President is headed for a landslide loss he might just bow out.  I'm not sure his ego is such that it could handle that sort of thing and might opt on taking a pass to avoid that humiliation.  Probably a long shot and not trying to make a political point.  Just looking at the facts."

I was commenting back then on what I thought would be the political backlash to the Administration's handling of the Covid pandemic and not the President's responses to the events of the past week.  His handling of the protests and riots have likely not garnered him much support except with his political base and articles are starting to appear about dire polling numbers for him in key swing states.  While I still think it's a long shot that he's not the Republican nominee for President this fall, I'd say those odds are a bit lower today than they would have been even a few weeks ago.  Again not trying to make a political point.  Just commenting on the events we've seen.

Back next week.