I haven't run one of these columns in awhile. It's amazing how much the world has changed since the last time I wrote one of these posts. To review, this is a section of posts where I respond in brief comments to something I've seen in the news or online. I've highlighted the headline note or post.
First, some links I think you might find of interest.
Bloomberg.com: "99% Of Those Who Died From The Virus Had Other Illness Italy Says."
The Atlantic.com: "What Really Doomed America's Coronavirus Response."
Websites that track where Coronavirus is and its statistics.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracker
Worldometers: Coronavirus Cases And Statistics
Fall-out:
Here's some of the things I'm watching and thinking about.
-Passing of the stimulus package and the ramping up of mask and ventilator production is the end of the beginning stage of this thing. There's a lot more to come.
-How long of a recession we have going forward probably depends on how long we're closed down. My guess, and it is a guess is we can avoid serious and longer term damage to the economy if we can get things going in the next 45 days. Beyond that we may have larger concerns.
-I'm watching Mexico because it's a country too close to the US in terms of proximity, a country without the financial resources to deal with a pandemic and a pretty subpar medical system once you get out of the major cities. Can't imagine what happens down there if the virus gets lose in the population.
You're going to be paying more taxes in the next few years to pay for this. I don't care what anybody says about that at this point. Somebody is going to have to pay for all of this spending.
What we've seen so far is the fear/anxiety phase of this. The next phase could likely be anger. That anger is going to be directed at political leaders and the bullseye likely will be on the President. I would say today that there's a much higher probability of the President losing the coming election at this point than a few months ago, particularly if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee. I think the probability is also rising that Mr. Trump might not even be the Republican nominee. My thinking on this is if it looks by June that the President is headed for a landslide loss he might just bow out. I'm not sure his ego is such that it could handle that sort of thing and might opt on taking a pass to avoid that humiliation. Probably a long shot and not trying to make a political point. Just looking at the facts.
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