Post & Comment {10.30.19}

This is a newer feature I added over the summer where I respond with a brief comment to something I've seen in the news or online.  The headline question I've highlighted.

The NCAA will allow college athletes to profit from names images and likenesses.  

About time!  I've always found it absurd that a college chemistry major on scholarship could make money working part time in a lab while players and whole programs get into trouble for relatively small amounts of money being exchanged, often without the programs knowing it happened.  The start of a massive unfairness being fixed.

The President will be impeached.

The movement to impeach the President keeps slogging through the House of Representatives.  My own guess is that those odds have moved a bit back in his favor this week with last week's headlines out of Syria.  I'm going to start laying informal odds on this and right now I'd guess the odds are less than 30%.  Last time I wrote this column I'd have likely given his odds at 35%.  It's really hard to impeach a President.  Also it should be hard to impeach a President.

The President will win reelection. 

Also hard to say and here I'll also start to lay odds.  My guess is this is a 50-50 race right now.  Most will depend on whom the Democrats nominate.

On the stock market.  

Probability would suggest higher prices over the next six months or so given what we know today.  Earnings season hasn't been as bad as many have predicted, stocks have not moved up much over the past 18 months or so and there seems to be a bit of optimism creeping into the investment community.  Also you have very favorable seasonal patterns now for stocks.  Of course there's much that could change my opinion on that.  Markets seem to be tethered to trade talks with the Chinese and any suggestion that these might fall off the rails could change this analysis.  Also excitement might be dampened depending on who starts to emerge as the Democratic front runner.  Time will tell.  Also this is not a recommendation to buy securities.  It is simply an observation.  You need to make your own analysis, talk to your own advisor or better yet hire me before you make any investment decisions based on what you read here or any other place.  This observation has as much of a chance of being wrong as right.  In short, you're on your own!

On the World Series.

I love baseball and what should be it's highlight of the year is virtually unwatchable because it takes way to long to play a game!  Last night's game was relatively short at around 3.5 hours.  Most playoff games this year have averaged around 4 hours to play.  That's way too long!  Baseball fix this!

Back Friday.