It Will End In Tears

I said the other day that I believe the only way the story ends in Hong Kong will be with tears.  I'm not making a political statement or trying to pick a side but simply bowing to the facts on the ground.  Whether it ends with a political settlement or something worse, the reality is that China is not going to let Hong Kong go in the direction that a majority of the protestors would wish.  All may not be lost in Hong Kong as there could still be some sort of face saving settlement that allows both sides to stand down.  Also my guess, and it is only a guess, is that the Chinese government would prefer to avoid violence.  Perhaps then there can still be an accord that finds room for compromise that satisfies the majorities on both sides.  However, the dreams of the most ardent dissidents are likely to be dashed.  From my perch it is unlikely that any government would ever give them all they are asking for, here or over there.

Apparently, somebody over there agrees with me.  Go read this opinion piece posted recently in the South China Morning Post. "China Would Rather See Hong Kong Lose its role as a Financial Gateway Than Ever Cede Political Control."  I know nothing about the writer but I'm guessing that article had to have been vetted by a higher political authority before it was posted.  It also seems to me like a level headed assessment of what the political authorities in China might be thinking.

Again I'm not making any political statement.  This blog is about money and markets, not my opinions or preferences.  As such, I am just looking at what I believe will be the reality of the situation and trying to strip emotion from actual events.    Those in Hong Kong hoping for support from groups and governments supporting democracy will likely find those hopes displaced.  Beyond words, a few marches and perhaps a few token sanctions no aid will be coming.  Hong Kong simply won't be worth that much to these other places at the end of the day.  

Back Wednesday.