Post & Comments {06.03.19}

This is a new feature I've been toying around with where I respond with a brief comment to something I've either seen in the news or on line.  My comments highlighted.

The market is going to have a correction.  Well the market has now been in correction mode for over a month.  We're currently down about 6% from the highs made at the beginning of May.  Keep in mind though that we are up a bit over 17% since the Christmas Eve bottom.  We were never going  to go higher in a straight line.  The latest news is just today's reasoning for us to sell off.  If it hadn't been China and tariffs it would have likely been something else.  

We are going to have a recession.  Of course anything is possible but current data isn't supportive of that assumption.  The more likely scenario is slower growth in the next two quarters followed by a resumption as the year progresses.

China is winning the trade war.  Nobody will win the trade war.  The current tariffs are a bargaining chip as each side tries to position themselves for the best deal possible.  I still think ultimately there will be a deal because it will be in both sides interest to get something done.  However, I am less confident of a deal happening soon than I was three months ago.

Back Wednesday.