Post & Comments {05.20.19}

This is a new feature I'm starting where I see something I've read or seen on line and throw out a quick thought or comment.  My response is highlighted.

This market correction we're seeing right now is only the beginning of something more ominous.  Of course it could turn out that way but so far all we've seen is a pretty run of the mill pullback.  International tensions aren't helping much with that right now, but those could be put again on the back burner soon for all we know and trade tensions with China may still be resolved.    Higher probability bet right now is still a sideways churning market within the range we showed on Friday.  {See  my post below this one.}

The US birthrate keeps falling.  That could be a permanent decline.  Maybe.  But the Millennial Generation is just entering it's prime parenting years and "Get. Z will be right behind them.  My guess is we'll be talking about a baby boomlet in five years or so.

Tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on Chinese imports are a tax and a drag on US economic growth.  Unquestionably much of the burden will likely fall on the US economy.  That being said let's see how it plays out.  In six months if there's a deal maybe these all go away or maybe we see a suspense of tariffs if talks get back on a positive track.  Also, it remains to be seen how much of these actually comes out of our pockets in the end or how much of a dent it is on the economy.  I wonder for example if somebody's going to be deterred from buying a garden hose made in China and currently priced at say $16.00 because it will now maybe cost $20.00.  Or will that garden hose now come from Vietnam or Mexico and instead now cost $17.50.  Will Chinese companies lower the price on the hose to make up the difference?  Will American retailers eat some of the new costs?  Hard to say.  I say let's wait and see.

Lori Lightfoot become mayor of Chicago today.  She is going to spark an era of change in how the Chicago is run and managed.  I hope that's true but she's going to face stiff opposition when going up against Chicago's Aldermen.  Also the pension debt issue is one that's going to be impossible for her to duck.  Still wish her well because change in Chicago is necessary.

Back later this week.