A Short Q. & A. {Intro & Premier Post}

I'm introducing a new feature that I'll call "A Short Q.& A."  It's basically where I'm going to take something I've seen posted on line or heard on the news and throw out a quick thought or comment.  I'll post first what I've seen or heard and then will give my comment or thought.  

Here goes.  Let me know what you think.

Markets are off to one of their best start in years by some measures it's the best start since 1987.  That my be true but all we've managed to do is get get back to about even with last year's highs.  Also for those of you that are too young to know or have possibly forgotten, 1987 didn't end so well for the bulls.

Real GDP +3.2% for 1 Q 2019.  All those calling for a recession are so far wrong.  My guess is that the majority of them are busy deleting their twitter feeds that predicted this back at the end of last year.

Markets are still pricing in rate cuts later this year and in 2020.  I think for that to happen economic data is going to need to slow significantly.  I wouldn't be surprised if at some point this year markets begin to worry again about rate increases.

Joe Biden is the early front runner for the Democratic Party's nomination in next year's presidential election.  It's very early.  The press needs something to talk about.  Probability suggests there's a higher likelihood of a relative unknown capturing the nomination.  See Bill Clinton in 1992 for that playbook.

What is the outside event that most aren't looking for that you keep on your radar.  Right now there are two.  First is a confrontation in the South China Sea that leads to some sort of military incident.  The 2nd would be a natural disaster someplace unexpected and completely unlooked for.  My top candidate for that is an earthquake hitting the center of the country along the New Madrid fault.  Hasn't been a major one of these since the early 1800's and the mid-west isn't prepared like they are on the west coast.

Back Wednesday.