Thoughts {Halloween Edition}

These late night Cubs games are killing me.  In case you don't know or care the Cubs held on to win a nail biter 3-2.  Game was not decided till the last out.  That's around midnight here folks and then you have to let the adrenaline calm down.  Tired today!

Markets seem to have digested the new Clinton email revelations over the weekend.  Markets are set to open flat with a slightly positive bias today.  The election seems baked in now.  I'm going to do one more electoral college update later this week just to check the numbers out but I think it's going to be very difficult for Mr. Trump to mount a push with only eight days left that denies Mrs. Clinton the Oval Office.  The real races now are the so called "down ballot" Senate and House races as these will determine not only who controls Congress but how much of a mandate Mrs. Clinton is likely to have assuming she wins.

More mergers today.  Baker Hughes and GE are going to combine their oil and gas businesses and Century Link is buying Level 3 Communications.  You know my views on mergers.  If not, see here.

While driving to Cleveland last week for the World Series I listened to an interview conducted with Anthony Scaramucci of Skybridge Capital discussing investor thinking regarding markets and volatility.  He said, and I am quoting him loosely here because I was driving and couldn't write it exactly down, "Individual investors are long term investors until confronted with short term losses".  I thought that is a great read into most investor's minds.  Today this is just food for thought.  I'm going to have more to say about this in the future.

I'm also beginning the outline of a book I want to write for Millennial's.  More on that in the future as well.  

Finally back to the markets.  Probably suggests we are dead in the water here until the election is over, although an argument could be made that we may begin to move more decisively as the likely results are discounted.  We seem to lurch from event to event these days.  Next thing on the docket will be whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates after the election.  

Fly the "W".  Go Cubs!

*The stocks mentioned in this article are components of various ETFs we own for clients and in personal accounts.  These positions can change at any time without notice here or in any other form of electronic media or communication.

Finally A Happy Halloween to all the little ghosts, witches, Olafs and Elsas on Ashland Avenue and to everybody else as well!

Thoughts {World Series Edition}

{Photo shot from my seat at Progressive Field, Cleveland Ohio, World Series Game Two.  This is early in the game.  Thanks to my buddy Patrick for inviting me and having such great seats!}

So Tuesday morning a buddy calls me and asks if I can make it to Cleveland by 3:00 PM EST, Wednesday.  If so I have a ticket for Game 2 of the World Series between the Cubs and Cleveland Indians.   Needless-to-say I cleared the deck for that.  Here's my observation after spending thirteen hours driving across northern Indiana & Ohio and spending about a day in Cleveland.

Cubs won the game 5-1 to even the series.  Cubs bats came alive in this game and took Cleveland out of it early.  They started the game an hour early as rain was predicted.  It started spitting rain in the 7th inning and really came down right after the game was over.  It was cold, that wet cold you find in the Great Lakes region of the midwest late in the fall after we've had a day or so of rain.  High humidity and rain soaked conditions with temps in the low 40's makes for miserable weather conditions.  We were out there for about four hours.  Obviously the pain was worth it to watch the Cubs win!

People from Cleveland have to be some of the nicest and most gracious folks I've run into in some time.

If these old "rust belt" cities were stocks I'd buy an entire portfolio of them.  The cost of living in these places is much lower than other parts of the country and in many of these towns good things are happening under the hood.  Cleveland seems to have some nice things going for it right now.

The economies of Northern Ohio and Indiana seem to be doing pretty well right now as well.

If the political sign factor means anything then Mrs. Clinton would be in trouble as I never saw a campaign sign for Hillary along the Indiana/Ohio toll roads.  The good thing for her is there's not a lot of people that live in these rural areas.  My guess is she's going to do well in the Indiana toll road cities of Ft. Wayne & South Bend and the Ohio cities of Toledo & Cleveland.  More than enough votes there to offset the countryside.

If you want something healthy along these roads then find a Starbucks* and buy one of their sandwiches.  These beat the standard burger and pizza fare you find in most rest stops.

Finally on an investment note I just saw a print that US GDP grew at a 2.9% rate in the 3rd quarter.  I've not had a chance to plow through that number yet but first read is that's a really good result and can be chalked up firmly into the "Things are Getting Better" file.

Back Monday.

*Starbucks is a component of several ETFs we own in client and in personal accounts.  

Thoughts:10.25.16

Strong performance yesterday in the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 Trust*.

Go read Peggy Noonan over at the Wall Street Journal, "Imagine a Sane Donald Trump."

"Mr. Trump’s great historical role was to reveal to the Republican Party what half of its own base really thinks about the big issues. The party’s leaders didn’t know! They were shocked, so much that they indulged in sheer denial and made believe it wasn’t happening. 

The party’s leaders accept more or less open borders and like big trade deals. Half the base does not! It is longtime GOP doctrine to cut entitlement spending. Half the base doesn’t want to, not right now! Republican leaders have what might be called assertive foreign-policy impulses. When Mr. Trump insulted George W. Bush and nation-building and said he’d opposed the Iraq invasion, the crowds, taking him at his word, cheered. He was, as they say, declaring that he didn’t want to invade the world and invite the world. Not only did half the base cheer him, at least half the remaining half joined in when the primaries ended.

The Republican Party will now begin the long process of redefining itself or continue its long national collapse. This is an epochal event. It happened because Donald Trump intuited where things were and are going."

Yahoo Finance: "America's Biggest Banks Are Closing Hundreds of Branches."  Here's what we said about this back last December when discussing technological deflation:

The term 'technological deflation' is the new economic buzzword.  Its concept is that technological deflation is a good thing {classic economics would disagree} because it improves our standard of living even in a world where wages are stagnant.    You can read about that over here at Business Insider.   The example they use in the article is the iPhone, a device that even though it is expensive replaces the need for several other devices that in aggregate cost more.  I largely agree with the thinking regarding technology but I don't think we've thought about or worked through all of the societal implications from this.  For example two jobs that technology endangers would be bank tellers and your neighborhood mailman.  Cash stations and electronic banking are making costly branch offices for banks obsolete.  Email and, again, electronic banking  has for the most part done away with what a first class letter was supposed to be used for, to pay bills and send personal messages.  Both job classifications have been entry level ways for minorities in this country to enter the middle class.  Nobody seems to have come up with ways to replace the jobs going out with similar ones to take advantage of these gains.  It's hard then to think about technological deflation if a larger and larger percentage of the population can't afford to the products that are becoming cheaper.  

If anything this process is accelerating and we have no better thought out policies to deal with the impact of technological deflation today than we did a year ago. 

Now a bit of a note.  You may have heard that the Chicago Cubs are going to be playing in the World Series and since that's a one and 71 year event we're going to be taking a few days off from posting.  These games go late and I think I'm going to be a bit busier in the morning as I might not start working the rest of the week at my normal 7-7:30  AM time.  So we're going to take the next couple of days off and we'll be back Friday.  Also we'll break in should events warrant.  See you Friday.  Fly the "W"!  Go CUBS!  

*Long ETFs related to the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 in certain client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or in other printed or electronic media.

Merger Monday

Stocks may or may not be overvalued but that isn't stopping companies from announcing huge deals over the weekend.  At least five major mergers were announced over the weekend including AT&T's $85 billion deal for Time Warner. This tops off an already record October.  According to Business Insider.com.,  "To date, October has seen $279 billion in announced M&A involving US companies, according to Bloomberg — the highest since July 2015, when we saw $337 billion in announced deals. That excludes deals that have since been scrapped, like $160 billion Pfizer-Allergan merger, which was announced in November 2015 and later blocked by regulators.  According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, October 2016 currently stands at the third-strongest month ever for US M&A announced deal value."

Look I'm not saying that investors always get mergers right but I do know that they generally want to buy things, whether it be companies or stocks, when they perceive value.  It should come as no surprise that markets are higher this morning.

Link:  Business Insider.com  "Merger Monday."

*AT&T and Time Warner are components of * ETFs held  in client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or in other printed or electronic media.

Health Care: Somebody Agrees With Me

Seems the folks over at Blackrock share some of the same thoughts as me regarding health care.  Go read, "Diagnosing the Health care selloff".  They also think  the sector may have been over-penalized during this political. 

*Long ETFs related to health care  companies in client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or in other printed or electronic media.

Thoughts {10.20.16}

Energy stocks had a another great day yesterday and energy is one of the best performing sectors in 2016.  Of course I think it was one of the worst performing groups in 2015.  That's why portfolios should be diversified folks.  We flagged oil, the commodity, as being something to watch back in early February.  Note we are not saying we called a bottom or anything like that.  We just noted back then that investors should put  oil on their watch lists.  No idea where oil goes next but we seem to be in a new trading range on the commodity which makes for easier economics for the energy space.  Energy is slightly overbought by our work right now.  Again I'd note that being overbought or oversold doesn't mean whatever we're talking about can't become further overbought or oversold.

*Long ETFs related to energy companies in client and personal accounts.  Please note these positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or in other printed or electronic media.

Go read over at the Blackrock Blog the article "Let's Retire Retirement".  Retirement is a subject I'm going to talk about in a bit more in the coming weeks and I think this is a good place to start.

We'll have more comments on last night's debate and the overall election next week.  I'd simply note right now that the markets are expecting a significant Clinton victory next month.  Something dramatic, drastic and out of the blue probably has to happen now for that viewpoint to change.  If markets continue to rally on this thinking it is only because Mrs. Clinton will at least have policies that Wall Street currently knows and understands.  Mrs. Clinton is likely to enter office with about the same popularity as Richard Nixon back in 1968.  That is to say her popularity will likely be low.  That will likely affect her political capital irregardless of how she does in the vote.  Remember many who vote for her will do so reluctantly and only because Mr. Trump seen by many is an unpalatable choice.  That will likely not be seen by many in Washington as a broad mandate, at least that's how I interpret this with about a month to go.  In this vein see from Albert Hunt over at Bloomberg, "Maybe Trump Won't Be Clinton's Biggest Problem". 

A lot of wonderment on why professional football is in the dumps.  I've said for a long time that if the NFL was a stock I'd short it.  Here are my reasons why I think it's hurting.

1.  Game has become boring.  A lot of mediocre teams.  Last week in Chicago we were treated with the 1-4 Bears playing the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars.

2.  Cue in with mediocre teams a lot of mediocre players, especially at the quarterback position.  If you don't have a good quarterback in the modern NFL you have nothing.

3.  Upset fans.  You think the folks in St. Louis are watching football on Sundays this year after the Rams bolted at the end of 2015?  How about the fans in Oakland that are being used again as patsies as the Raiders try to get a new stadium in it seems anyplace but Oakland.  Maybe one of the reasons there's more interest in college football is that the variability of the game and the fact that colleges don't get up and move.  Notre Dame isn't leaving South Bend, nor will the University of Michigan leave Ann Arbor.

4.  Rise of other sports.  See the upswing in the NHL and the English Premier League.

Talking about the NFL won't make you money unless you can figure out an angle on stocks to short on it's weakness but it's an appropriate place to end the week.  This is especially true as our Bears are likely to get served up huge in their game tonight against Green Bay.

Cubs tied their NLCS Series last night at 2-2.  Chicago can now exhale!  Had a pretty rough 24 hours around here the other day after they lost their 2nd straight game without scoring any runs.

Back next week.  

Chart Talk {10.19.16}

Today I wanted to draw attention to the chart of the health care sector ETF, XLV, because I think it gives you a look into your thought processes on securities.  {You can double-click on this to make it larger.} Before we do that you need to read the following disclosure: 

I own this ETF for clients and in personal accounts.  I also have recently added small amounts of XLV to certain client accounts and to certain personal accounts.  If you are reading this and you are not a client of ours then understand that I invest for my clients based on my understanding of their unique investment mandates.  For others reading this post you should know that what is written here is provided for informational purposes only.  You should NEVER invest in anything you read here or anyplace else without first doing your own investment homework or understanding how a particular investment fits into your own unique risk/return profile.  Nothing here should be construed as a recommendation to do anything with any particular security.  I assume no responsibility for any actions you may take after reading anything on this blog.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY YOU COULD LOSE MONEY PURCHASING THIS OR ANY SECURITY!    If you are not a client of ours then you should never take any action on anything you read here or anyplace else without doing your own homework, talking to your own investment advisor or better yet, hiring us.

I wanted to point out the characteristics of XLV in light of its being down nearly 9% from its highs last summer.  I want to make note of this because there are some interesting things going on here.  First, let's go through all the negatives.  Obviously health care has been one of the whipping boys this political season with companies being called up to testify before Congress on suspicious drug price increases.  Also a now expected Clinton Presidency is not seen as a positive development for the sector.  As such investor sentiment has turned very negative on the group.  This is expressed in how the sector has been trading and that picture isn't pretty.  First off, XLV has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows which can be visually seen not only in the chart above, but also by that downward sloping green trendline in its northeast corner.  XLV is trading below several key moving averages that investors pay attention to.  Also, although not noted in the chart above it recently broke technical support represented by that horizontal blue line running just north of where it's currently trading. 

Yet perhaps sentiment is starting to become too negative.  XLV is now very oversold by our work in multiple time frames.  It has also entered a region where it has found prior support.  At these levels the ETF carries about a 1.5% dividend yield and is now down on the year by about 2% so valuation would seem to be more attractive.  

XLV is at a juncture where the risk reward characteristics are becoming attractive.  I say becoming attractive because I think there is a possibility that it may have some more room to go on the downside.  I also think that it is vulnerable to a general market decline from here {should one occur} just like almost everything else.  However, probability suggests the risk and the negatives are now generally known here and are in the process of being discounted.  Should it break down from here then the next level of support by our work is between 66-68 on its chart.  I think that gives XLV an interesting risk/reward characteristic for those with an appropriate time span.  The time span we use for investors is 6-18 months.  As I said earlier, the ETF has about a 1.5% yield so at least you're getting paid something to wait.  Finally if it simply moves back to the upper levels it saw last summer then you would see something like a 7-8% return on your investment.

Again this is not a trade and I think there's a real likelihood that XLV could see lower prices before it moves higher so probability suggests there is still risk to the downside.  Since they don't ring a bell at the bottom or top of a market or sector's trading cycle, I would at least put the ETF on your watchlist.  Largest current positions in XLV according to Morningstar are Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Merck, United Health Group and Amgen so some real blue chips in here.

Chart is from TradingView.com although the annotations are mine.

Third Quarter Market Update

With the 2016 general election drawing closer, many investors are wondering how the stock market will respond to abundant political uncertainty. As Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton fight it out, emotions are running high and there is a growing uneasiness in regards to the markets. Those who have money invested in the stock market are particularly nervous, as the unparalleled nature of this year’s election leaves them wondering what is in store for the markets.

Politics and Our Economy

First we must all come to grips that in January 2017 either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will be our President. For those who are less than pleased with our presidential options (and there are many of us), there’s no “do-over.” While this can be disheartening and discouraging, know that America and her economy are large, diverse, and dynamic.

The events that will impact the markets this next year will not solely be influenced by the comings and goings in Washington D.C.. Furthermore, we’ve seen worse than either of these two candidates and have still managed to survive. The sun will rise the day after the inauguration and the nation will go about its business. However, in both the run-up to the election and its immediate aftermath, there is the potential for the market to be affected by the results. What might this look like?

Pre-Election Market Expectations

Probability tells us that investors are currently pricing in a Clinton victory. It is also likely that the markets could become more volatile if investors begin to doubt this consensus, as investors hate uncertainty. Donald Trump is well known to the business world, but a President Trump is a significant unknown. We know little about his future economic policies, and what he has said so far has been vague and contradictory.

Despite what opinions you may have heard about Hillary Clinton, she does have a long history in government. The business community has a basic understanding of the possible economic policies of a Clinton Administration. None of this is to say that the markets are in love with the idea of Clinton as President. Instead, it is simply a case of the “devil you know being better than the devil you don’t.”

After the performances we witnessed in both Presidential debates, the odds still favor Mrs. Clinton as President, with a likely outcome of a divided Republican Congress. But this is all just conjecture. If the consensus regarding the election results changes, markets could become increasingly volatile, at least until the results of the election are final.

Post-Election Economic Possibilities

There have been many speculations about this election ushering in a market crash or a bear market. While it is impossible to accurately predict what will occur, it’s important to understand that markets can experience a downturn at any time. Market volatility has a historical average somewhere between 10 and 15% during the course of the year. This year is no exception to this rule, as we’ve already seen stock prices decline around 11%. Historical volatility and the declines it produces are part of the ticket you punch when you own equities. But what about the possibility of more significant declines?

Market Crash

As we’ve seen in the past, market crashes occur when an unexpected event finds investors “off sides” in their risk exposure. Basically, something unexpected occurs, causing investors to become sellers all at once, overwhelming regular purchasers of stock who naturally pull back in the face of such an onslaught. We saw this after 9/11. In the immediate aftermath of that event, investors sold shares without regard to price.

Right now, the most likely situation investors think could cause this particular issue would be Mr. Trump winning the election. But investors have had months to contemplate this outcome and plan ahead. A Trump win may cause a decline in stocks but is less probable to lead to what might be defined as a classic market crash. Just like with the Brexit vote this summer, it is possible that markets could stage a rather quick recovery once it becomes evident that the world won't end with the results of the vote, even though the results were not what polls predicted. Stocks actually staged their best rally of the year on the heels of that UK election.

Bear Market

A bear market is usually different than a market crash, although a crash can morph into a bear market.  Bear markets occur when stocks are significantly overvalued or when the economy begins to contract. While stock valuations are currently elevated, markets by many measures  are not  as overvalued as they were in the early 2000s.  Also, economic activity is not showing signs of recession as most recent economic statistics currently point to a continuation of the muddle-through economy we’ve seen over the past few years.  Classical bear markets take time to form and don’t resolve themselves overnight. There will likely be a chance to reevaluate portfolios if one of these is starting.

Your Best Strategy

Understandably, investors hate volatility, especially volatility that leads to portfolio declines. But instability can be tough to plan for when it comes to your portfolio. As we have previously stated, we know of no strategy short of 100% cash that can completely protect your portfolio from market changes. While there are methods to hedge a portfolio, these can be expensive and will often produce losses that the average investor is not willing to accept. The best way to deal with inevitable market uncertainty is to create a disciplined investment plan and reevaluate your strategy as market forces dictate.

If you are feeling nervous about the impact the upcoming election will have on your portfolio, or if you think your portfolio is not set up to stand firm against market trends, please contact us at 708.488.0115 or by email at lumencapital@hotmail.com. We would love to discuss your situation and analyze how your finances will hold up in times of economic uneasiness.

About Chris

Christopher R. English is a money manager and the founder of Lumen Capital Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisory firm. Specializing in investment management and developing customized portfolios that reflect a client’s values and needs, he has nearly three decades of experience working with individuals, families, businesses, and foundations. Based in the greater Chicago area, he serves clients throughout Illinois, as well as Florida, Massachusetts, California, Indiana, and other states. To schedule a complimentary portfolio review, contact Chris today by calling 708.488.0115 or emailing lumencapital@hotmail.com.

Next Post.

Our next post here will be Wednesday.  We'll do a chart update on the market at that time.

Are Stocks Overvalued?

If you want a more negative argument on stock market valuation go read in yesterday's Wall Street Journal the article titled "Are Stocks Overvalued?  Depends on the Metric."   Here's the main point:

"Now that traders increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates later this year, there is a renewed focus on valuations.

The price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500, currently around 18.25, is modestly high. Robert Schiller’s CAPE ratio, which focused on earnings for the past decade, indicates valuations are at dot-com level highs. But Mr. Schiller’s measure may be misleading, given changes in accounting rules that pushed down earnings. Of course, companies can push up earnings even when sales are flat, either through cost cutting or stock buybacks.

Sales growth, some argue, provides a cleaner view into a company’s health, and there are a number of valuation measures using sales that they point to, including price-to-sales, market cap-to-sales, enterprise value-to-EBIDTA, and more.

Ominously, all of them are at more distressing levels than a standard PE ratio.

The market cap-to-sales currently sits around 1.84, according to data from Yardeni Research, a level not seen since the dot-com boom, when it peaked at 2. The measure typically signals stocks are overvalued when they are at one or higher, according to Vincent Lowry of OppenheimerFunds.

Similarly, the price-to-sales ratio on the S&P 500, currently at 1.90, is higher than it has been at any point since February 2001.

In his opus, “What Works on Wall Street,” James O’Shaughnessy argues stocks with low price/sales ratios beat the broader market, but that the single best metric for measuring stock returns is the ratio of enterprise value/EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization).The S&P 500′s EV/EBIDTA ratio currently sits at 11.77. It has not been that high since 2002, when it was on its way down from the dot-com heights.

This doesn’t necessarily mean a crash is coming, but it does illustrate in myriad ways that the market is richly valued, and in essence, investors are betting that everything from here on out is going to go perfectly, that profits will grow, wages will rise, and the economy will take off."

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please note that positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or in printed or in electronic media.

Chart Talk {10.13.16}

This chart is from Tradingview.com.  Annotations to it are mine.  You can double-click on it to make it larger for better viewing.  We've been talking for some time that we expected to see volatility pick up this fall.  Well it's here, sort of.  Stocks have declined about 3% since around Labor Day.  However, that decline has been orderly and probably to the average investor hardly noticeable.  Most of the decline has been sector or individual stock specific.  Probability suggests this phase of volatility could continue until the election has passed.  Right now the Presidential election looks set with Mrs. Clinton opening up a sizable lead over Mr. Trump so investor concerns will likely shift to the Senate and House races. Interest rate concerns and worries about economic growth also aren't helping much right now for investor psychology.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please note that positions can change at any time without notice on this blog or in printed or in electronic media.

Sleep Well Dad

Richard Joseph English 

Born: April 8, 1934

Graduate of Indiana University School of Law and admitted to practice before the Indiana Bar Circa 1958.

Admitted to practice before the Ultimate Supreme Bar, October 12, 2008.

Sleep well Dad and God Bless.

Go Read

I unexpectedly need to be out today.  Here's your reading list:

Blackrock:  "Understand Your Financial Personality."

Money Strong:  "Jobs:  Our National Treasure."

Pragmatic Capitalism:  "Golden Era of Low & Stable Growth."

Chicagomag.com  "Dispatches From the Rap Wars. {My 18 Months Inside of One of Chicago's Most Notorious Gangs."

I may be able to post tomorrow but if not then we'll be back here Thursday for sure.

The Cubs Are Playing Baseball Today

Moon rising over Wrigley Field earlier this summer.

"The one constant through all the years Ray has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again, but baseball has marked the time. This field, this game is a part of our past Ray. It reminds us of all once was good and could be again."-James Earl Jones as Terence Mann in "Field of Dreams."

This post has nothing to do with the markets or investing so if that's what you're looking for then you can leave right now.  

The Chicago Cubs begin their quest for baseball immortality tonight as they begin the National League Playoffs.  Unlike last year when the Cubs sort of snuck up on the baseball world, this team was expected to do well from the beginning.  So far they haven't disappointed, winning 103 games and the National League Central crown.  All of that though is now in the past.  Forward lies the possibility of glory and for Cubs fans the adventure of their lifetime.    All of us Cubs fans and I suspect most Chicagoans are now along for the ride.

Baseball is a game that starts with the promise of spring and ends for one team with an autumn crown.  Every April hope arises in all fans of the sport, but perhaps no more so than those that call the corner of Addison and Sheffield Avenues home turf.  Most years for Cubs fans those hopes are dashed usually before the kids go back to school.  But sometimes something like this season happens and you just have to sit back and savor the experience.  The Cubs finally winning the World Series in a year like this would be one for the ages.  With apologies to all White Sox fans {who won a World Series in 2005}, it would likely be the greatest Chicago sports story in the 30 years I've lived here.  The Cubs have a larger national fan base than the  Sox and a more glorious history of losing.  Yes I use the word glorious because you only have to consider their past to understand that comment.  If you don't know what I mean then go look it up.

To be a Cubs fan right now is to gaze hopefully in to that promised future while staring down the revenants of that glorious but ghastly past.  You right now want so much to believe but you are haunted by past failures.  How it will end is anybody's guess but as long as the Cubs continue to play baseball this year they will have Chicago's undivided attention.  Including mine.  

Next post here will be Tuesday.  Markets are semi-open Monday, Columbus Day but I have a slate of meetings that day and will mostly be out of the office.  

And if you have any magic potions or ju-ju juice that you wouldn't mind offering up to the baseball gods in favor of our Cubbies then I'd be much obliged, as would millions of people around here.

Eamus Catuli Baby!