Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Jim Cramer On Why the Market Is Going Higher.

Link to Jim Cramer's Mad Money opening segment from last night on why the market is going higher.   I think this is part of the reason we've seen stocks on the move to no highs even as the earnings season has been so-so.  Investors are looking beyond the summer into the fall and right now they believe companies will do better on the back end of the year.

An Update on Earnings/Profit Margins.

From Dr. Ed Yardeni over at Dr. Ed's Blog:

S&P 500 profit margin estimates are also holding up, with 9.8% expected this year and 10.5% expected next year. I expect margins to remain flat in 2013 and 2014. So earnings should grow at the same pace as revenues. For earnings, I am still predicting $110 per share this year, up 5.9% y/y, and $118 next year, up 7.3%. Obviously, I am more optimistic about the prospects for revenues than the analysts. However, because they are more optimistic on margins, they are currently predicting that earnings will be $111 and $124 this year and next year.


I am still carrying a $106.50 earnings per share number for the S&P 500 in 2013.  That is much lower than consensus estimates right now and I'm beginning to think that my estimate is too low.  I will leave the numbers alone for the time being as I want to see what the rest of the first quarter and forward looking guidance into the summer looks like.   Note though that if Yardeni is correct that fair value on the S&P 500 has the potential to be 1,540-1,705 on the S&P 500 this year and 1,650-1,830 by year end 2014.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.


Monday, April 29, 2013

About the iPad

I have to be out today.  I did find this article over at Slate.com on how the next big thing for Apple is going to still be the IPad of interest.  I'll link to it here.  Back at the "command post" tomorrow.

*Certain clients hold legacy positions in Apple or have we have purchased it for them at their direction.

Friday, April 26, 2013

an tSionna {04.26.13}

I said a week ago as the market's were poised at resistance that it was time to see if the Bulls could notch a save.  Well the bulls brought in Mariano Rivera who pitched a shutout!  Market turned around and headed higher.  Now we are flirting with all time highs!



Earnings season has by and large been just ok.  A lot of companies are beating estimates with weak top line growth but are achieving success controlling costs.  In general forward guidance has been on the weakish side.  Right now though the market doesn't seem to care.   Whether that will remain the case as we go forward into our historically weak market season remains to be seen.

Chart by way of Finviz.com.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Apple

I get asked about Apple more than any other stock.  As you all know I very rarely buy individual stocks for clients.  While I may have an opinion on the company, this blog is not a "tout sheet" where we discuss individual equity picks.  That being said, Josh Brown over at the Reformed Broker put out an interesting read on the name yesterday.  Here's what he said:

"The company has just informed us that they plan to return $100 billion dollars to you, if you are a shareholder, over the next 36 months.
This is an unheard-of sum, the Exxon dividend-buyback combo of a few years back is the only corollary.  This comparison is important because Exxon is not growing but it has treated you very well over the years if you simply sat back and collected your gains and payouts from the boring business.
There are muted expectations for Apple's growth rates and innovation prowess and profit margins. Everyone is aware that it is not 2006 anymore. The hot money is no longer in control of the equity and $300 billion in market cap has already been shed. People talk about this company as though it's dead. As Jay Yarow reminds us, at $43 billion in quarterly revenue, it is anything but. For perspective, Google does $50 billion in revenue for a full year.
I don't know if Apple's next product launch with be sexier than Samsung's. But I do know that it doesn't matter, not anymore. Negatives are well-known and small positives will be surprises now. There is still downside risk, but this is true of any stock so get over it."

I think for my clients a better way for me to incorporate Apple in their portfolios is to take a second look at technology ETFs in here like I mentioned yesterday.  Also Apple is currently something like 12% of the QQQs so that might be a way to gain exposure to the name if you are so inclined.  

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 and QQQs in both client and personal accounts.  Certain clients hold legacy positions in Apple or have we have purchased it for them at their direction.


Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Nasdaq 100 Vs. S&P


Weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 {QQQ chart courtesy of FINVIZ.com}.  "Nazzie" is up about 3% in the past year versus about a 15% gain in the S&P 500.  Much of this under performance is due to Apple Computer which is down nearly 40% since last fall and at one point was greater than 20% of the total capitalization of the index {QQQ}.

Curiously, if you look at the QQQs on a two year basis they have about the same return as the S&P 500.  Each is up just north of 15% during the past two years.  Longer term indices are mean reverting, meaning that there shouldn't be this much of a difference between the QQQ's return and the S&P 500.  This is especially true when one remembers the growth rate on the Nadaq 100 is in general higher than for the S&P.   This means that either the Nasdaq is going to start gaining on the S&P, or the S&P is going to come back down to the Nasdaq's range or some combination of the two.  

The Nasdaq carries a heavy tech component while some of the best sectors in the S&P 500 for 2013 outside of finance are more defensive in nature.  Probability might indicate then more of a catch up by the Nasdaq, particularly if Apple can put in some sort of bottom now after reporting a not so great earnings outlook going into the fall.   Given this discrepancy in returns, tech is an area of the market that has seriously underperformed and is starting to look interesting.  Will have to do so more research work in this area.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 and QQQs in both client and personal accounts.  Certain clients hold legacy positions in Apple or have we have purchased it for them at their direction.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Not A Good Grade For Jim Cramer

Not a good grade for Jim Cramer's stock picking prowess.  His featured trades on his show "Mad Money" going back to 2011 were tracked by an organization called Pundittracker.com.  Not completely sure about their methodology which you can find at the link below, but it does show how hard it is even for professionals to beat the market these days longer term.  In all fairness to Cramer his Action Alert's Plus portfolio as tracked by the Street.com shows better performance characteristics.

Link:  Pundittracker.com: Jim Cramer's Mad Money 2011 & 2012 Picks.


Monday, April 22, 2013

Three Charts.

Today I'm showing three charts that Bespoke Investment Group published over on their public website last week.  The first two show one of the things that's bugging the markets right now.  That is that companies are missing on a much higher basis top line growth {rising revenues} but are still able to "beat" earnings estimates on a consistent basis.  That means companies are making estimates more and more by things like cutting expenses, lower tax rates etc.  Investors generally are less than enthused by this process.  Investors in general like growth as it indicates a more healthy company and a more healthy corporate environment.   

Some of this stagnation in revenues has to reflect a less than robust world overseas these days but some of this has to be coming from home as well.  Anyway here's the first two charts:


Percentage of companies beating earnings estimates.  Remember the reporting season isn't over yet.  


Here's Bespoke's take on this.

"Unfortunately, top-line revenue numbers haven't been pretty.  As shown below, 43.9% of the companies that have reported have beaten revenue estimates, which would be the weakest reading seen since the financial crisis.  Last earnings season, we saw a big bounce in revenue beats after two very weak quarters, but it looks now like we're reverting back to what we saw in the middle of 2012."

So what may still be supporting stocks?  One of the things might be dividend yields.  Again from Bespoke:


"....As of.... (4/17), there are 278 stocks in the S&P 500 (55.6% of the index) that currently yield more than the 10-year US Treasury.  Additionally, more than a quarter of all stocks in the index (132) yield more than the 30-year US Treasury.  
While the large percentage of stocks yielding more than US Treasuries is more a result of historically low interest rates than historically high dividend yields, it is hard to argue that the market is overvalued when earnings multiples are merely inline with historical averages while the 'coupon' is greater than the payout on Treasuries."


Dividends may be currently doing some of the heavy lifting for stocks but it's hard to believe that equities won't continue to struggle if more evidence accumulates that the economy is struggling a bit more than expected.  The pattern of a soft economic patch in the April-early fall period seems to be continuing.


Links: 
*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

By the way Bespoke puts out some of the best investment statistics on the Internet in my opinion.  You should definitely go here sometime and check out what they write.  I am a subscriber to their premium content {all of what you see here is free on the web}.  If you are interested in market information they are a "must have" subscription in my opinion.  This is my shout out to them.  They don't know me, don't know that I'm recommending their services and I'm not compensated in any manner to give them a thumbs up.

Friday, April 19, 2013

an tSionna {04.19.13}

Chart courtesy of FINVIZ.com.

We will have to see if the market can find support at the crossroads circled above which shows a confluence of the trendline that dates back to last November and support.  The S&P 500 is also sitting right on its 50 day moving average which is a gage watched by many market technicians.  Most of our indicators show stocks as still overbought although a bit less than they were a week ago.  Longer term, 67% of stocks are still trading above their 200 day moving averages.  While that indicator has declined from a high around 85% a month ago, it is typically still not trading at a level from which longer or intermediate term rallies commence.  

Earnings season's been so-so this week and the economic news hasn't been great.  The bombings in Boston certainly didn't help sentiment either.  I said recently that this week and next will go a long ways towards giving us some indication over direction these next few months.  So far from my perch that news hasn't been great, sort of blasé as a matter-of-fact.  Blasé may not move the needle higher as far as stock prices go.  My thoughts could change of course.  We've recently discussed here, here and here market seasonality.  One of the things we've noted in our last post about this was that with many market participants now recognizing these seasonal patterns  of weakness in the May-early fall time period, perhaps the direction of most pain would be for stocks to move higher.

That may of course be what happens.  If so then the trade of maximum pain would be for stocks to take out these resistance levels and then over the course of the next few weeks reverse and move higher.  The one thing to note though is that scenario needs some piece of good news.  Good news has been lacking short term here.  Time to see if the bulls can notch a save.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

More On Individual Investors Long Term Performance



Another chart courtesy of Blackrock this one showing the longer term costs of many individual investors poor investment decisions.  Here's their take:

"Volatility is often the catalyst for poor decisions at inopportune times. Amidst difficult financial times, emotional instincts often drive investors to take actions that make no rational sense but make perfect emotional sense. Psychological factors such as fear often translate into poor timing of buys and sells. Though portfolio managers expend enormous efforts making investment decisions, investors often give up these extra percentage points in poorly timed decisions. As a result, the average investor underperformed most asset classes over the past 20 years. Investors even underperformed inflation by 0.5%."

I'll point out the real long term lesson from this chart and the one we just posted and that is most people have no business trying to manage their own investments.  They don't understand volatility, they don't understand their own risk-reward parameters and they most often have no realistic ideas of what to expect out of markets.  The real reason you hire somebody such as me is that if that person is any good, he or she will be able to help you do all these things that most of you simply can't do on your own.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Investors Buy and Sell At The Wrong Time!



We've noted in the past that individual investors often are buyers and sellers at the absolute wrong time.  We've also discussed here certain examples of this such as in March of 2000 where we saw the largest influx ever of money into mutual funds right as the market was rolling over into the next two years bear markets and the Gulf War lows in March of 2003 when investors liquidated said funds at a rapid clip.  Now Blackrock is out with a graphic representation of just how wrong footed investors can be.  The chart above shows S&P 500 Index performance versus 12 month equity mutual fund inflows.  Here's their comments attached to the chart:

"Unfortunately, investors often take actions counterintuitive to investing best practices. In an ideal world, investors "buy low, sell high." Though the rule seems simple, we've often seen investors do the exact opposite, especially during volatile times. For a few examples, look at historical mutual fund flows versus the performance of the S&P and note how the most flows went out when market prices dropped...and were set to rally."

Also in the for what it's worth department for those that worry about a bubble in stocks, notice that current mutual fund inflows {last blue bar on the far right} are nowhere near the levels that have marked past historic market peaks.  Some of that likely reflects the market share stolen by ETFs but even accounting for that, individuals haven't completely bought into this rally as witnessed by what they're actually doing with their dollars.

Link:  Blackrock.com: Investors Chasing Performance
*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Day After

Markets were already weak yesterday before the news out of Boston hit.  The terror bombings there {and yes, these were terrorist attacks, the only issue is whether it was homegrown or from overseas} added to an already weak market situation.  

Markets have turned around this morning.  Better than expected corporate earnings and some better economic numbers are helping.  The fact that consumer prices declined in March owing to cheaper gasoline is probably the brightest overall economic takeaway from today's reports.  

The market is still in this churning phase, unsure about the next several quarters.  Year end S&P 500 numbers are still in the $110-112 area for much of Wall Street.  That range seems to high to me and I'm still using $106.50, however it is equally as likely that my estimate is too conservative.  I'll still maintain that we will know a lot about the economy going forward from corporate earnings reports we see this week and next.  

By-the-way, if corporate earnings would actually come in around $112 this year, then the S&P 500 is trading with a 13.9 PE, a 7.2% earnings yield and a nearly 2% dividend yield.  A 15 PE on that number gives you a target range of 1,680-1,700 on the S&P 500.

In terms of the attack in Boston, I think everything that needs to be said has already been discussed.  The event hit very close to home.  My In-laws live not too far from where the attacks took place, my son works just a few blocks from there and one of the Boston Boy's daughters ran the first 15 miles of the race.  Given all that you can probably guess what I'm thinking today.  What I'd like to see happen is that when they catch the perpetrator or perpetrators and if they're found guilty, {this is America after all} let them run their own special Boston Marathon along the same route and then let the good people of Boston properly express their "appreciation" to these evil-doers for what they've done to their city and to their people.  I'll never get my way on that, but to me that would be justice.

I have to be out tomorrow to due to a very sad event which I may discuss in the coming days.  I will be back here hopefully Thursday.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

Monday, April 15, 2013

an tSionna {04.15.13}



Weekly chart of the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. {Remember we use this as a proxy for the S&P 500 because it's something you can actually trade and it mirrors almost exactly the S&P 500 index.} Here's a market that's climbed the "Wall of Worry".  Since the fall of 2011, stocks have been in a consolidation/ thrust higher/ consolidation/ thrust higher pattern.  These patterns have actually been persistent since 2009 but have really been noticeable these past few years.  The pattern is highly correlated to market seasonality.   If stocks follow the pattern this year we should see topping action soon.  Oddly, however, charts are indicative of a break out pattern out of consolidation last week.  It is often said that markets force traders to learn patterns and just when they get comfortable, Old Mr. Market changes the way things trade.  As such it would be ironic if all the "Sell in May" folks this year were wrong!  Earnings season heats up this week and that is likely to be the real determiner of market action over the next several months.  But a positive earnings season just might throw this type of thinking out the window for 2013.  There are years where markets actually go up in the summer.  Stocks cruised higher in both the summers of 1995 and 1997 for example, however economic growth was much stronger back then.

Of course the corollary, weaker than expected earnings just might be the excuse to get the seasonal methodology back on track.  Yet I'm reminded once again of the Consiglieri's teachings, "markets will do what they have to do to prove the most amount of investors wrong.  In that case in my opinion the direction of the most pain is stocks that just continue to ramp higher, leaving those that fear this market on the sidelines.  In that case they're either going to have to chase stocks higher or wait for a pullback to get long.  Stocks almost never pullback when you want them/need them to.  That's not how it works.

Don't know of  course what's going to happen but keep that variant thought someplace handy.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts. 

Friday, April 12, 2013

Investors Not Bullish


I don't think I have a single client that believes in this rally.  Actually I'm not sure that I have a single client that's believed in the rally we've seen since 2009.  This chart by way of Bespoke Investment Group shows that investors aren't feeling bullish right now.  Bespoke's comments:

"Sometimes you see an update to an indicator and the only thing you can do is scratch your head.  That is exactly what happened this morning when we saw the latest update to the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).  According to this week's survey, bullish sentiment was nearly cut in half from 35.5% down to 19.3%!  As shown in the chart below, this represents the lowest reading of the entire bull market.  Outlier readings like this make us wonder whether or not there was an error with the release, but if true it is yet another example of how investors are still anything but all in."


Link: Bespokeinvest.com: Bulls Move to the Endangered List

Thursday, April 11, 2013

This Broke Out Yesterday


Nasdaq 100 {QQQ}has underperformed most major market indices this year.  This has a lot to do with the dramatic underperformance of Apple Computer {AAPL}in 2013.  Nasdaq broke out yesterday.  Not saying it should be bought or sold.  I'm just noting what it did.


Nasdaq First Trust Equal Weighted Index looks better.  It too is close to a breakout of this wedge pattern.

*Long ETFs related to the Nasdaq 100 {QQQ} in client and personal accounts.  Long AAPL in certain client accounts.  AAPL is also a major component of several ETFs that we own in client and personal accounts.

Charts courtesy of FINVIZ.com

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

About "That Sell In May" Idea

We've talked a lot in the past about market seasonality, most recently here.  Others are starting to give this serious print.  Here are some links.

Market Watch:  Why it Pays to Sell in May.

and this chart....


comes from a fellow named Dan Greenhaus at BTIG, LLC by way of an article over at Business Insider.com titled "The 'Sell in May' Investment Strategy Has Been a Huge Winner for Over a Decade.

By the way I can show you data that this strategy has basically worked for most of the past 30 years.

S&P 500 has hit a new all time intraday trading high as I'm typing this and has traced out a pattern almost identical to what we say last year.  If that pattern holds then stocks would be putting in a top somewhere around here.  Not saying that's going to happen, but it is something to be aware of.

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

an tSionna {04.09.12}


We showed you this chart of the S&P 500 last week, noting that the market needed to find support at this purple trend line.  That's exactly what the market did, recovering from sell offs both Friday and today.  Under the hood though things are not looking so good.  Market breadth has been deteriorating for about a month.  The percentage of stocks trading above their 200 day and 40 day moving averages is still elevated but has been declining during the same time period.  Basically we have a market where trading in the indices is masking some real deterioration in stock prices.  Sectors that have been out performing recently, consumer staples and utilities are usually not the stuff of market advances.

The other side of the coin is that valuation numbers by our work are still reasonable.  Josh Brown over at the Reformed Broker.com notes via Brian Gilmartin over at Trinity Asset Management, that four quarter forward looking earnings estimates for the S&P 500 are $115.25.  Both Josh and Brian noted yesterday that assuming these estimates hold then stocks are trading with a 13.5 forward PE and a 7.42% earnings yield.

I think that number's a bit high and am carrying a forward year's estimate of $109.40.  Still my number  if it is correct gets you a PE of 14.30 and an earnings yield of 7.0%.  Using a 15 PE that would imply  an S&P trading around 1,650, about 6.0% higher than where we trade right now.  Again that's on my estimates not theirs.  If their number is correct {I'm assuming it's from someplace like Factset} then stocks have the potential to trade much higher than my estimates.

Stocks have been jumpy and all over the board in up and down trading for the past month.  There is a real push/pull between earnings growth expectations and evidence that the economy may have slowed a bit recently.  First quarter earnings season is starting now and it strikes me that stocks, perhaps more so than in recent quarters, will resolve themselves one way or the other based on the forward guidance companies throw out.  Not as much room for error right now in either the valuation or the expectations department.  We're going to start seeing some clarity here in the next 10 trading days.  What companies say now will likely set the table between now and the fall.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.



Annette Funicello


Annette Funicello, one of the original "Mouseketeers" passed yesterday.  The under 50 crowd will have no recollection of Annette, Tommie, or Cubbie but if you were from a certain time and era the Mickey Mouse Club was required viewing after school along with a snack.  Rest well Annette.

Meeska Mooska Mousketeers.  See ya real soon!

Monday, April 08, 2013

Margaret Thatcher

Margaret Thatcher has died.  I often think that in comparison to the statesmen and politicians that ran the world when I was younger, todays "political elite" all throughout the world often behave like spoiled adolescents.  I suspect some of that is due to the unrelenting news and internet coverage these people receive now.  It's likely that some of these folks wouldn't have looked as stately if the 24/7 news cycle had been around a half century ago.  Certainly JFK would have been unlikely to have kept the adoring press image in today's world. It's also possible that I remember people differently in hindsight than they actually were.  Still folks like President's Reagan, Kennedy, Konrad Adenaur, Pope John Paul II and Lady, Thatcher were made of sterner stuff I think than today's breed.  

President Obama has grown in the five years he's been President, but I don't see him ever placed next to any of the persons in the list above.  Lest you think that's me picking just on him, no current Republican in office rises to the President's level in this regard.  Some of that is do to the circumstances of their time at the top.  People under the age of 30 have no idea what growing up during the Cold War was like.  The politicians that managed their way through it at least were raised during the cauldron that was World War II.   

Margaret Thatcher has died and she along with a whole list of Western Leaders {and some Soviet ones too-think Mikhail Gorbachev} mid-wifed the world for better or worse into it's modern form.  Under their watch the Cold War never went hot.  Instead it went cold, as in dead, when the whole rotten idea that was communism bankrupted itself on Ronald Reagan's long ash heap of history.  She was as tough as nails and like Reagan here in the US, brought Great Britain back from the brink of despair.  Her policies were often not popular while she was in office but she went out as perhaps the most beloved of Prime Ministers next to Winston Churchill.  

The bell tolls for what we here in the States refer to as the Greatest Generation.  Very few of the political class from that era remains,  President Bush and Queen Elizabeth are a few exceptions to this rule.  I may be wrong but at the end of the day, the body of work established by their predecessors in the  generation that inherited the political system from them will pale next to what they did.

Margaret Thatcher has died.  One of the last grown-ups has left the building.  Rest well Lady Thatcher and God Speed.

"Disciplining yourself to do what you know is right and important, although difficult, is the highroad to pride, self-esteem, and personal satisfaction."-Margaret Thatcher.


Sleep Well Dad

April 8, 1934-Went to practice before the Ultimate Supreme Bar, October 12, 2008.

Sleep well!  God Bless.

10 Things Financial Advisers Won't Say {Part II}

Here is Part II of the Market Watch.com article we excerpted on Friday:  Again excerpt with my highlights.

6. “We get paid by mutual-fund companies…”

Investors aren’t the only ones who pay fees to their financial advisers. Mutual-fund companies whose funds advisers recommend do too. Wall Street calls these financial relationships “revenue sharing.” While perfectly legal, critics have long likened the payments to kickbacks...
Financial advisers don’t dispute that it’s a conflict of interest; disclosures often label it as such. Some pros argue, however, that since the vast majority of big mutual-fund companies make revenue-sharing payments, they don’t necessarily give brokers an incentive to pick one fund over another. What’s more, while many independent financial advisers don’t accept revenue-sharing arrangements, those professionals may charge higher upfront fees to make up for the lost revenue, according to Terry Headley, a former president of the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors.
Just how much money is at stake? Typically, firms don’t disclose precisely how much revenue they get from revenue sharing — for competitive reasons, they say. But Edward Jones, a St. Louis-based brokerage, is an exception. It is required to publish figures, as a result of a 2004 regulatory settlement over its disclosure practices with the SEC, New York Stock Exchange and National Association of Securities Dealers. According the company’s website, Edward Jones received $164 million in revenue-sharing payments from investment and insurance companies in 2012, amounting to about 30% of its $555 million profit. Edward Jones declined to comment.
7. “…And the loan departments of banks.”
Mutual-fund firms aren’t the only ones that dangle incentives to financial advisers in exchange for access to clients. Increasingly, Wall Street’s biggest banks have been encouraging financial advisers to help peddle banking products like mortgages, checking accounts and credit cards. Banks say the strategy, known as cross-selling, isn’t just about boosting their bottom lines. It is also a convenience for investors and allows advisers to focus on meeting the client’s broader financial-planning goals. “It is something our clients have told us they want,” says a Wells Fargo Advisors spokeswoman.
Not everyone is impressed, however. Critics point out that the sales incentives that these firms have added to advisers’ pay packages could create a conflict of interest, especially since they only apply to in-house products. In addition, regular investor protections such as the fiduciary standard, which are designed to cover securities, rather than banking products like loans, don’t necessarily apply. “The real question is, Are you getting the best deal?” says Barbara Roper, director of investor protection for the Consumer Federation of America. “The convenience of getting everything in one place comes with a price.”
8. “You read our disclosures, right?”
While most financial advisers face conflicts of interest of one kind or another, informing investors up front about them is supposed to make it OK in the eyes of law, according to experts like securities lawyer Philip A. Feigin. Does disclosure really work? “It is a Norman Rockwell view of what people really do,” he says.
In fact, the “important information” that you should “carefully” before opening a Merrill Lynch Personal Advisor account runs to 52 single-spaced pages. A similar version from Wells Fargo Advisors is 27 pages. In general, compliance experts say, big brokerage firms have the lengthiest disclosures because their size and multiple business lines mean they have both the broadest range of offerings for investors and the most potential conflicts of interest. ......
Many advisers are upfront in detailing for clients precisely how they get paid. .....And many investors don’t know enough about the industry to start asking the right questions. That is where disclosures ought to come in, according to consumer advocates and many industry insiders.
Ultimately, these documents do include a lot of valuable information, lawyers and other experts say. But it’s a mistake to assume potential conflicts like sales incentives and revenue sharing which regulators and consumer interest groups tend to focus on most will be emphasized or explained in detail, according to Louis Harvey, chief executive of Dalbar, a compliance consulting company. “The thing you care most about may be on page 7 in a little note,” he says.
9. “We put more initials after our names than crown princes do.”
Hoping to stand out before potential clients, many financial advisers can point to their impressively long list of credentials. The problem is, there are so many of these, even industry insiders joke that it’s difficult to tell them apart. .....
.....While some designations are designed to indicate expertise in niche areas like handling divorce or insurance, among the most commonly seen are the CFP, or certified financial planner (a credential for those that emphasize helping clients save and prepare for events like retirement) and CFA, or chartered financial analyst (for those that specialize in picking stocks and other investments). Both are widely respected, according to consumer advocates and industry insiders, for their in-depth training requirements. But consumers seeking the right advice have their work cut out for them. (For a comprehensive guide, see Alphabet Soup of Advice.)
Another problem with designation inflation is that easy-to-get credentials could be listed right alongside those that are tough to get, which could diminish the perceived value of the latter. Tom Robinson, managing director for education at the CFA Institute, a trade association for investment professionals, says students spend an average of about 300 hours studying for each of three exams needed to earn the group’s coveted designation. Only about one-fifth of those who start make it all the way through. But not every organization is as rigorous. For some credentials, “you can take a weekend course and get a designation,” he says.
10. “You want to sue us? That is so cute.”
Think your broker ripped you off? Investments are complex, and every year, thousands of Americans come to the conclusion that they’re being taken advantage of. But not everyone gets his or her day in court. Brokerage firms, like many other types of companies, typically require customers to agree to arbitration hearings....... 
Finra, and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (Sifma), a trade group that represents Wall Street firms, say the arbitration system is designed to save everyone time and money, and ultimately makes it easier for investors to pursue small claims. But industry experts have long raised questions about the process. “We have a lot of issues in terms of fairness and transparency,” says Heath Abshure, Arkansas Securities Commissioner and president of North American Securities Administrators Association, a group of state securities regulators. “It is the brokers watching the brokers.”
One big point of contention: Even so-called “public” arbitrators, included in panels to ensure nonindustry perspectives, often still have ties of one sort or another to Wall Street, such as experience as a securities lawyer. .......
......Since 2011, investors have been effectively able to demand hearing panels that exclude arbitrators with explicit industry ties. (Roughly half do so.) On a separate front, Finra has been trying to make it harder for those with marginal industry ties to qualify as public. “We’re constantly improving the forum,” says Linda Fienberg, Finra’s director of arbitration. 

Link:  Market Watch: 10 Things Advisers Won't Say

Friday, April 05, 2013

10 Things Financial Advisers Won't Say {Part I}

An excerpt from a great article over at Market Watch.com  about financial advisers that for the most part are not individual or independent RIAs.    This  is a very informative article.  It is long, but I think important.  I may have more to say about this at a later date but for now parts 1-5 are here.  The rest, 6-10, will be published Monday.  {Excerpt with my highlights.}


1. “We’re your biggest advocate, except when we’re not.”
A consumer who seeks help from one of the nation’s 300,000-plus financial advisers is probably hoping to find (what else?) financial advice...... For years, consumer groups and rival industry factions have battled.......over whether that “advice” should be required to be in the client’s best interest (the so-called fiduciary standard) or merely “suitable,” based on factors like age and risk tolerance.
Under current rules, advisers can adhere to either one of those ethical standards or both, depending on how clients pay for their services. The SEC has said it wants to hold all advisers to the tougher best-interest standard. Most consumer groups favor such a change, arguing that the looser “suitability” standard encourages advisers to steer clients into costlier products that’ll earn them fatter commissions. “They call themselves advisers, but they are functionally sales reps,” says Knut Rostad, founder of the Institute for the Fiduciary Standard, an investor-advocacy group. Advisers who favor the ostensibly looser standard say they have investors’ best interests at heart. One key contention: While the tougher ethical standard might eliminate some conflicts of interest, it would also boost costs by creating extra compliance work and additional legal liability for advisers..... “The fiduciary standard disenfranchises the middle market,” says Terry Headley, a financial adviser in La Vista, Neb., and the group’s former president.  
2. “What we charge is all over the map.”
Just as many investors have trouble determining which advice they can rely on, many find it difficult to figure out how much they’re being charged......

What investors pay varies widely, according to Mike Sha, chief executive of SigFig, a website that helps investors track fees and performance. At MarketWatch’s request, SigFig divided the investors that sign on to its service into cohorts ranked from those that pay the least to those that pay the most. The bottom fourth of its customers paid fees amounting to 0.47% of their savings each year, while the top fourth paid 1.39% — nearly three times as much. “A lot of people are paying thousands of dollars a year and have no idea what the fees are,” says Sha.

To be sure, some investors who pay more are likely receiving higher levels of service. Wealthy investors also typically are charged a smaller percentage of their assets, because economies of scale mean fixed costs don’t loom as large. Wealthy investors in Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s “Personal Advisor” program, for instance, pay fees of 2% on their first million dollars invested. But that falls to 1.1% for balances between $5 million and $10 million, according to regulatory filings. Merrill declined to comment on its pricing.
How can ordinary investors determine whether they’re paying too much? Starting in 2011, the SEC required firms to publish a document known as the “Form ADV Part II”; the information from that form enables investors to look up many advisers’ list prices on the SEC’s website, making it easier to comparison-shop....... 
3. “Your future looks bright, according to our software.”
The numbers convey the kind of certainty everyone wants to hear: You have a 98% chance of reaching your retirement goal, a 95% chance of paying your kids’ college bills — even a 94% chance of affording that summer house you’ve been eyeing. So it’s little wonder that financial plans that include these kinds of statistics — typically generated by software that combines inputs like age and savings rates with historical market returns — have become a favorite with advisers and clients alike.....
But critics warn that investors can put too much stock in these calculations, which are typically based on mathematical models known as “Monte Carlo” simulations—that’s Monte Carlo, as in the European gambling haven. The models are designed to calculate probabilities based on thousands of possible market scenarios. But equations are only as good as their inputs. .....
.....The take-away, according to some financial pros, is that while plans can be a useful tool, investors shouldn’t overlook the fact that someday they might lose their job or, for that matter, decide they’d rather sail around the world — scenarios that could of course render a preset plan obsolete. 
4. “There’s no easy way to judge our stock-picking performance...”
For investing pros at hedge funds, endowments and mutual funds, success is defined by performance.....While investing acumen has long been part of advisers’ sales pitch, substantiating the claim can be tough. First off, unlike mutual-fund managers, who can measure their performance against clearly defined benchmarks (the way, say, Gross’s Pimco Total Return Fund is compared with the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), advisers’ mandates are more nebulous. Their job is to look after their clients’ overall well-being rather than some discrete segment of the securities markets. To that end, advisers say they set a variety of goals with each client, and clients can judge their performance based on how successfully they meet those goals. Furthermore, brokerages say they are constantly developing new tools to help investors track and measure individual portfolio balances. But because financial advisers work with so many different types of clients, it’s difficult to determine whether or not an adviser can “beat the market,” according to those in the industry.........

5. “...But we’re tops at raking in the dough.”
Investors cheered in January when Morgan Stanley’s Global Wealth Management group posted $221 million in pretax profit.....One factor highlighted in the earnings report: Average annualized revenue per global representative jumped from $790,000 to $824,000. Clients might imagine this closely watched industry metric, known as “production,” indicates how much money the company’s 16,000-strong army of financial advisers made for them. Rather, it simply measures fees and commissions earned from them.....
......To be sure, clients and advisers often make money at the same time. When an adviser picks winning investments, clients’ account balances and the adviser’s production increase in tandem. And sometimes investors can lower their bill by switching from a fee-based to a commission-based plan (many advisers will work either way). While commissions tend to mean investors pay more up front, in the long run they can work out to be cheaper.

Under either system, however, insiders say the fastest and surest way for advisers to boost their production numbers is simply to sign up more and wealthier clients — a dynamic that can emphasize salesmanship over investing prowess. “The advisers who gather assets boost production,” says Scott Smith, an analyst at brokerage-industry researcher Cerulli Associates. “They are the ones who get ahead” in the industry........

Part II will be published on Monday.

Thursday, April 04, 2013

an tSionna {04.04.13}


I was a bit of a seller today.  Lightened up a bit more on our European ETFs among other things..  This of course was dependent on investment strategies and client risk/reward perimeters.  Market is still over bought and our indicators have deteriorated somewhat over the past week or so.  Having a little more cash on the books makes some sense to us at this point given the move stocks have made since the beginning of the year.  

Then there's that seasonal thing........

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Please note that actions we  may discuss about client accounts in the context of this blog are based on our intimate knowledge of our clients' risk/reward perimeters.  This is not a recommendation to buy or sell for investors we do not know.

Wednesday, April 03, 2013

an tSionna {Market At New Highs}

From Chart of the Day:


"....For some further perspective on the post-financial crisis rally, today's chart illustrates how much of the downturn that occurred as a result of the financial crisis has been retraced by each of the five major US stock market indexes. For example, the S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 back in October 9, 2007 and troughed at 676.53 back on March 9, 2009. The most recent close for the S&P 500 is 1,570.25 -- it has retraced 100.6% of its financial crisis bear market decline. As today's chart illustrates, each of these five major stock market indices has recouped all losses incurred during the financial crisis (i.e. all are above 100% on today's chart). However, it has been the often overlooked S&P 400 (mid-cap stocks) that has been the star performer. The S&P 400 has recouped over 140% of its financial crisis decline -- a very impressive performance."

My Comment:  Mid-cap stocks often outperform the rest of the US markets.  They usually represent the sweet spot for growth stocks.  Generally they've moved beyond the pure survival stage of the small cap universe and are still of a size that they can be nimble in how they operate.  

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500, to certain Mid-cap indices and the Nasdaq in client and personal accounts.  Certain clients own ETFs representing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 average.


Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Market Seasonality-An Update

We've discussed in the past our theories on market seasonality.  One of the things we note is that stocks tend to have a rougher going between the Spring and mid-fall period.  Market parlance calls this the April-October weakness and is best expressed by the Wall Street maxim, "Sell in May and Go Away".  Bespoke Investment Group has taken a look at the current market versus last year at this same time in regard to these seasonal patterns.  Below is their chart and their comments:



"Much has been made of the strong rally the market has experienced so far this year, but as we have mentioned numerous times, it's important to remember that last year at this time, the market was up even more.  On this trading day last year, the S&P 500 was up 11.09% year to date.  As of this morning {March 25, 2013}, the S&P 500 was up 8.99% year to date in 2013.  
Below is a chart showing the performance of the S&P 500 in 2013 overlaid on a chart of its performance in 2012 through the end of July.  As shown, while the S&P 500 was up slightly more in the first quarter of 2012, the index has tracked its 2012 pattern pretty closely in the first quarter of this year.  Bulls will be hoping the pattern breaks quickly, however, because the party for stocks ended quickly once the second quarter began last year.  In fact, by the start of June last year, the index had given up nearly all of its double digit percentage gains from the first quarter."  
*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.