Thoughts From The Road {Part II}

Readers of this blog will note there's been a bit of a gap between these posts while I've been working remotely.  That's because last week I was able to secure a dose of the Pfizer vaccine.  However, I had to fly back to Chicago, then drive nearly a 100 miles southwest to Mendota, Illinois and wait in line in a CVS there in order to get the job done.  All in I clocked 2,300 miles to get vaccinated.  I doubt that's a record but it may be close.  At some point maybe I'll write about Mendota as a proxy for small towns today but want to wait a bit on that.  I have a return trip down there for when I get back to get my second dose and may have some more time to poke around there then.  I had a sore arm from the shot and the next day felt really tired.  I was also a bit "off" for a few days after the shot but other than that I've had no noticeable side effects.  

Some further observations from the road and then a market comment.  Covid may not be done with Americans, but Americans are done with Covid.  I flew home and back to Florida to get my shot.  The planes were full.  The airports are full.  People wear masks but social distancing is a lost art at this point.  Governmental officials and the CDC can plead all they want about a spike in cases and to please stay home, but the horse has left the barn on that.  Whether that's the correct attitude or not only time will tell.  For better or worse Americans want their lives back.

Having said that, masks are required in every place I've been to and business establishments maintain social distancing requirements in their establishments.   Most people still wear masks in public spaces, even if not required to do so.  My impression is that people still take prudent precautions but at this point are unwilling to let the disease so totally dominate their lives that they're willing to live as exiles anymore.  Restaurants are full at whatever capacity they're allowed to have.  Many of those fully vaccinated seem to feel bullet proof from the virus.  I'm not sure that's a confidence that I'll share when I've completed the treatment, but I do have to say it eases the mind a bit to even have one shot in the arm.  I think we're going to start seeing this new found confidence show up in personal spending numbers in the next few weeks.  

Now a thought on the markets.  For the most part what we've seen over the last six weeks or so is a market that's been grinding in place.  Part of me suspects that has to do with the large bull run we saw from November through early February and the other part suspects what we're seeing is a wait and see approach from investors on whether the reopening thesis is going to play out the way most expect.  At any event a market that corrects in some parts by price in here and some parts by time is in my opinion a healthy sign that there's a potential for further price increase in the months ahead.  Now, it wouldn't surprise me if you have to wait a bit for that to occur.  Given the run we've seen in stocks since last years lows, a pause at some point ought to be expected.  I'll repeat what I've previously written, I still believe we're going to be shocked by consumer spending in the months ahead.  Nothing I've seen while on the road makes me think otherwise.  Some but not all of that spending is reflected in stock prices and I still believe that has the potential to reflect positively for stock prices in the months ahead.