Thoughts From The Road {Part I}

Many of you are aware that I've taken the "Show" on the road for a bit this spring.  We decided after Christmas that spending four months locked down in our place wasn't going to be on the agenda so we made some plans and have relocated work down in parts of the country that are a bit warmer than home.  We're hitting two parts of the state of Florida before heading up to Kiawah Island in South Carolina.  Of course I'm part of the original work from home generation as I've been doing that for the better part of two decades, but I've also been working remotely for years when we'd spend parts of the summer in Rhode Island.   It's amazing to me how much easier this is in 2021 than it was back when my kids were little.  Back then I'd work off of a bulky lap top and would need to bring at least two big boxes of files, research etc.  Of course it helped that there is an office out in Rhode Island I can use when I'm out that way.  Back then I really needed the capabilities of a printer and fax machine which we have out there.  Today I throw a computer in the car as well as a laptop.  The computer is a self contained unit that takes up no room.  I pack what I need in a couple of briefcases and I bought a cheap printer before I came down here.  I need that for copying and scanning.  No faxes anymore!  At any rate I thought today and maybe next week I'd share some things I've noticed while being on the road.

First America is opening up and it's doing so with or without governmental permission.  The two hotels we stayed in on our way down were at capacity.  The main drag of the town of Delray Beach {where I'm near} looks like there was never a lockdown.  The beaches are full.  I don't know about the nightlife scene down here because that's not something we're doing but restaurants are booked solid.  Florida gets a bad rap, yet you can't go into a business establishment without a mask and I notice those without them down here are either young or outside.  People over 50 for the most part wear masks.  Most restaurants have done what they can to move as many of their patrons outside.  People practice social distancing.  I'm sure the vaccines have a lot to do with people's attitudes but I think you'd have a hard time keeping people locked up after a year of this even without them at this point.

Anybody who says there's no inflation hasn't filled up their gas tank.  When I left gasoline was $2.65.  It's on average $2.84 down here.  I saw $3.13 near the water the other day.  

I'm on a wait list now in Illinois to get vaccinated.  If I can get an appointment then I'd consider flying home as I have plenty of credits on airlines for canceled trips last year.  Still may want to reconsider that given what I've seen of planes.  Suddenly they look jammed again.

Plenty of the people from up north I've met down here have either already moved or are considering it.  Ran into an additional five couples from Chicagoland at the place I'm staying.  All want out of our area as places of permanent residency.  One gentleman I met came in January and planed to stay a month.  He extended his stay, then extended it again.  Now he's bought a place down here and is selling his home in the Philadelphia area.  I know there's been some press these last few days about how the supposed move away from places like Chicago and New York is overblown.  I'll say two things about that.  Most people don't necessarily want to move away from home forever.  They want the magic word residency someplace other than a place like Illinois.  Most don't plan to stay down here one day longer than they need to in order to not be considered a citizen of Illinois.  As to the actual numbers if folks making the switch, well you don't need all that many if the folks that are leaving are the ones that pay the taxes.  

I still think we're woefully underestimating what GDP is going to look like in 2021 and I still think that's supportive of stocks.  I know interest rates have moved up recently and that's been one of the excuses for why growth stocks have been struggling.  I think growth stocks are range bound because of the fantastic moves they had last year and other areas of the market looked cheap by comparison.  As to interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury bond currently yields 1.62%.  I can remember when that bond yielded between 5-6% and stocks still managed to move ahead.  Call me when you can get 3% on a 10-year bond then I'll start to worry about bonds being competition for stocks.    

Back next week.