Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Levels {Note: This Post Has Been Updated!}

I was asked yesterday what percentage declines the levels that I showed on that chart of the S&P 500's ETF SPY equated to.  Here goes.

If we see a decline to that next level of resistance {horizontal green line} then you would see a further decline of about 2.5% from yesterday and a decline of abut 4.25% from our most recent highs.  {Updated as of today's close:  We broke through this level this afternoon.}

If we see a decline to the 200 day moving average {the blue trend line running across about the middle of the chart} then you would have a decline of about 4.25% from yesterday and about a 6% decline from our most recent highs.   {Updated as of today's close:  We closed about 3 points from this level today.

A decline to the longer term trend line going back to early 2016 {pink line} would be a loss of about 5.3% and a decline of just slightly over 7% from the most recent highs. {Updated as of today's close" We closed about 6 points from this level today.}

Finally while I didn't highlight it yesterday that horizontal red line across the very bottom of the chart represents the lows we saw last winter.  If we were to see a decline down to that level then you would see a decline of approximately 11% from yesterday and about 13% from the most recent highs.

Not saying any of this is going to occur, just letting you know what the losses would represent on a percentage basis.  None of this would be anything more than a run of the mill correction by market standards.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.

**Charts updated at the end of trading today to reflect today's decline.