Thursday, December 19, 2013

Something To Think About.

I am out today so I'm posting a quick muse from both Josh Brown over at the Reformed Broker.com {a blog that in my opinion is an everyday must read} who quoted this from Eric Peters at Wkndnotes {a restricted web address}.

You know next yr will be the 1st since 2003 that Japanese and Chinese stocks both post double-digit gains?” asked the same Asian CIO. Both mkts are cheap, Chinese reform and Abenomic stars are aligning. Plus, the US fiscal drag is lifting, and Europe won’t contract. Then we discussed the deflationary consequences of the technological revolution rippling across the globe. The resulting low interest rates, rising corporate margins. And he asked, “In that world, isn’t the right P/E for the S&P 20?” -Eric Peters.
Josh {Brown} here – If we’re going to muddle through again in 2014, with more slow economic growth and borderline deflationary employment and wage conditions, the S&P 500 is likely fully priced.
But what if we’re not just going to muddle through?
What if something bigger is happening?
Worth considering.
My comment:  Say all of the above takes place {well all of the above with the exception of the US PE expanding to 20-cause in my book probability says that is low percentage likelihood} then I think international markets look increasingly cheap. Global expansion in that scenario could be the tide that lifts all boats.

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