Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Foreign ETF Performance-Long Term



Here's a chart from Stockcharts.com of how select foreign ETFs have done over the past three years. {Note that you can double click on the chart to make it larger.} These are mostly regional charts such as VEA {Vanguard Euro Pacific} or concept ETFs such as VWO {Vanguard Emerging Markets}.  The S&P 500 is up nearly 64% in the same time period.  

What strikes me here is that the discrepancy has become too large.  Probability would seem to indicate that either the US market has to revert to where international markets are trading, or these markets have to play catch up with us.  Many foreign markets seem cheaper than the US right now and most pay fairly attractive dividends.  Example is the above mentioned VEA which according to FINVIZ.com pays nearly a 3% dividend.*  These markets are being abandoned as the end of the year performance and tax issues come into play so they are starting to reach oversold status in our indicators.  Not saying they're going to do anything soon or maybe at all but from my perch the longer term risk/reward criteria are looking more favorable.

*Dividend information on VEA is from FINVIZ.com.  Its current yield as of today shows at 2.95% on their page.
**Long ETFs representative of the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts.  Long DEM, Dol, VWO,VEA,VGK in both certain client and personal accounts.  Long VT in certain client accounts.