Wednesday, December 04, 2013

What Bubble?


A lot of chatter recently about a stock market bubble.  That sort of talk seems to increase every time the market rises.  While stocks can correct at any time, a bubble in the current environment seems like a less probable event.  For one thing investor sentiment as shown in the chart above isn't at levels that usually denote that sort of thing.  There may be bubbles out there {See Bitcoin!} and stocks will fluctuate in value as the normal aspects of volatility continue to rule the roost.  However, I don't see any bubble in stock prices right now and investor sentiment isn't supportive of that sort of thing either.

Note though that in so saying it is very likely that equities will experience some sort of pullback in 2014.  That's just probability given that's the historic norm of stocks.  But such a  pullback would not constitute evidence of a bubble or necessarily show the end of the current bull market.  Bull markets end when investors start to worry about recessions.  The economic data is hardly supportive of that sort of thing right now.