The Economy & Jobs.
Market Watch on the jobs picture. {Excerpt}
The recession’s over, bull market’s in full swing and economy’s on the rise, right?
Watching the stock market over the last two months, one would think all of the national troubles have been brushed aside with a new period of economic prosperity on the rise.
The bulls are even looking at today’s jobs data with the same optimism. So the economy lost 539,000 jobs last month, who cares? The rate of contraction is declining, which can only mean better times ahead, right?
Think again.
While the jobs picture is getting worse at a slower pace, it’s important to note that it is, in fact, still getting worse, Floyd Norris writes on his New York Times blog.
Fewer people may be losing jobs, but the average length of unemployment is currently at 21.4 weeks, which exceeds the previous record set in July 1983, Norris says.
If you’ve been out of work for a while, finding another job seems to be harder than ever. And the number of jobs for men in their prime working years is falling at the fastest pace since the figure was first calculated in 1948.
And although jobs are declining at a slower price, the “vanishing act” of jobs continues to affect most areas of the economy, James Picerno says.
“A slowing rate of job loss isn’t the same thing as job growth,” he cautions.
For the labor market to return to its pre-recession status, the economy would need to create seven million jobs, he says. That’s certainly an overwhelming number, especially since 7.9 million nonfarm payroll jobs were created in five years through the end of 2007.
“That was a period of robust growth, cheap money, a roaring bull market in all the major asset classes, and a real estate boom of unprecedented proportions,” he says. “Don’t hold your breath for a repeat any time soon. The reason is debt. There’s lots of it, and it weighs especially heavy on household balance sheets.”
Watching the stock market over the last two months, one would think all of the national troubles have been brushed aside with a new period of economic prosperity on the rise.
The bulls are even looking at today’s jobs data with the same optimism. So the economy lost 539,000 jobs last month, who cares? The rate of contraction is declining, which can only mean better times ahead, right?
Think again.
While the jobs picture is getting worse at a slower pace, it’s important to note that it is, in fact, still getting worse, Floyd Norris writes on his New York Times blog.
Fewer people may be losing jobs, but the average length of unemployment is currently at 21.4 weeks, which exceeds the previous record set in July 1983, Norris says.
If you’ve been out of work for a while, finding another job seems to be harder than ever. And the number of jobs for men in their prime working years is falling at the fastest pace since the figure was first calculated in 1948.
And although jobs are declining at a slower price, the “vanishing act” of jobs continues to affect most areas of the economy, James Picerno says.
“A slowing rate of job loss isn’t the same thing as job growth,” he cautions.
For the labor market to return to its pre-recession status, the economy would need to create seven million jobs, he says. That’s certainly an overwhelming number, especially since 7.9 million nonfarm payroll jobs were created in five years through the end of 2007.
“That was a period of robust growth, cheap money, a roaring bull market in all the major asset classes, and a real estate boom of unprecedented proportions,” he says. “Don’t hold your breath for a repeat any time soon. The reason is debt. There’s lots of it, and it weighs especially heavy on household balance sheets.”
posted by CR English at 6:12 AM
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