Thoughts {April Fools Edition}

Here's a few things I'm juggling about in my noggin as we begin the 2nd quarter of 2019.

Major US indices are all up better than 10% as of Friday's close.  What we've had is a large inverted "V" on the stock charts as the gains almost perfectly matched the losses from last year's 4th quarter.  Now comes the trickier part which is whether stocks have enough left in them to assault last year's old high's and continue forward.  Many think that's a dubious proposition right now and I'm on record as thinking that at a minimum some sort of pause should be expected sooner rather than later.  But it is the markets that are the final judges on these sorts of things and right now the bulls are in control.  Stocks look to open strong this morning.  As long as the animal spirits are running stock prices could move higher.  Time will tell.

Switching gears now, the worst sort of scandals or issues are the ones the public can easily understand.   In that vein expect the college admissions scandal and the current immigration crisis along the border to carry on and be potential surprise issues into next year's elections.  Many already feel the system is rigged against them and the blatant way it seems some wealthy families bought or bribed their kids way into elite universities will reinforce those beliefs.  Likewise no matter what one thinks about immigration I detect a growing unease that people are concerned we've lost control of the process while many have the perception we've lost control of our borders as well.  I think both issues will have legs going into next year.

Speaking of politics I think it's a higher probability than most that the Democratic nominee for President next year will be somebody flying below the radar right now ala Bill Clinton in 1992.  My dark horse candidate to fill that role is Pete Buttigieg, the current mayor of South Bend, Indiana.  To make it clear I'm not endorsing Pete or any other candidate.  I just wouldn't be surprised if he runs better than most might expect right now.  

Finally go read, "Five Pieces of Traditional Retirement Advice That No Longer Work Like They Used To".  I'll have more to say on this article at a later date.

Back Wednesday.