A Few Thoughts

I'm typing this from the road where I'm combining a few days of R&R with visiting a few clients and friends of the firm.  I am always fascinated by the modern ability to connect with the world via the internet regardless of where one is located.  In my case I'm typing this out on my IPad, something that would have been unthinkable not all that long ago.  Markets don't care where you are though.  They open for business at 9:30 EDT no matter if your sitting at your desk or lounging by the water. 

Right now we are slightly lower after a big shelling on Friday.  I think that decline had a lot to do with markets being over bought and the fact that the world had become perhaps a bit too bullish as we've marched straight higher since the December lows.  Now I don't have any better idea than the next investor on where we're going in the short run but I'm on record as saying that I think it wouldn't surprise me if we chop around now for perhaps an extended period of time.  Note we could do that or perhaps even give some of this rally back and my more positive view of stocks would remain unchanged.  It would not be unprecedented for stocks to try and digest these gains and if that were to occur it would likely be setting the stage for some sort of rally at a later date.

We don't do politics on this blog and when we discuss anything politically related it has to do with the context of how whatever we're discussing plays out in the financial markets.  In that vein I will comment on the Mueller Report and my initial read on its financial aspects.  In the main, the findings likely remove the possibility that Trump will not finish out his term of office.  In finding no collusion on the part of the President the report removes this sword that hung over the President's neck.  There will be other investigations and findings but none will have the power to impact his Presidency the way the Mueller report had the potential to do.  That removes uncertainty and removes the possibility of a potential constitutional crises down the road.  Markets can now scratch that off the list.  Instead markets can now focus in on a normal presidential election cycle.  Markets can now discount the President's political fortunes the way they would in any other time period.  Mr. Trump may have a tougher road than some expect, particularly in regards to the electoral college.  But that's the normal course of events and markets can discount that as is they normally would.

I will post either Wednesday or Thursday of this week unless events warrant.