The World In Pictures {07.06.17}

Note the explosive population growth of Sub-Saharan Africa vs. Europe out to 2050.  Many are quick to point out all the negatives associated with this, in particular as it comes to immigration into Europe.  Yet there is another more positive side to this story that the Economist noted in an article from a few years ago.  This part of the story may not pan out.  But we should not overlook the possibility that Africa's population growth might possibly lead to accelerated economic growth on the continent.  Note that thirteen of the top twenty cities by the year 2100 are projected to be in Africa.

"As societies grow richer, and start to move from high fertility to low, the size of their working-age population increases. The effect is a mechanical one: they have fewer children; the grandparents' generation has already died off; so they have disproportionately large numbers of working-age adults. According to a study by the Harvard Initiative for Global Health*, the share of the working-age population will rise in 27 of 32 African countries between 2005 and 2015.

The result is a “demographic dividend”, which can be cashed in to produce a virtuous cycle of growth. A fast-growing, economically active population provides the initial impetus to industrial production; then a supply of new workers coming from villages can, if handled properly, enable a country to become more productive. China and East Asia are the models. On some calculations, demography accounted for about a third of East Asia's phenomenal growth over the past 30 years. 

Africa's people are its biggest asset. One day, its workforce could be as lusty and vital as Asia's—especially compared with that of necrotic Europe. But there is nothing inevitable about the ability to cash in the demographic dividend. For that to happen, Africa will have to choose the right policies and overcome its many problems. If a country fails to address those problems, then the demographic dividend could become a burden. Instead of busy people at work, there will be restless, jobless young thugs; instead of prosperity, there will be crime or civil unrest."

Back early next week.

Link:  The Economist, "The Baby Bonanza"