Election Probabilities Revisited

Today we take another look at the electoral probabilities of the upcoming Presidential race.  The electoral map comes to us from RealClearPolitics.com and shows the current state of the race by state and electoral math.  Today's map shows the Clinton/Kane ticket with a very strong likelihood of garnering 263 electoral votes with Trump/Pence gathering in 164.  That leaves 111 up for grabs.  This analysis is virtually unchanged from the last time we looked at the race just before Labor Day although Trump has managed to take a lead in a few more states.   

The electoral math looks just as challenging today as it did back then.  Mr.  Trump needs to virtually run the table on all of these states labeled toss ups in order to win.  Mrs. Clinton needs to pick up only a few.  Her most likely path to victory comes in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina.  Winning North Carolina alone would seal the nomination for her while a combination of any of the other three gives her the requisite number of electoral votes.  This math is likely the reason the website Fivethirtyeight.com gives her at this point a 78.1% likelihood of winning next Tuesday.  

However the one caveat to this analysis is that most of the polls in the states where the election is close were likely taken before last Friday's announcement that the FBI was reopening the email probe regarding Mrs. Clinton so we will have to see if this has any effect on the race.  The markets are still expecting a Clinton victory so any deviation from that view over the next few days could heighten volatility.

Speaking of volatility the S&P 500 is down about 2% in October smaller cap stocks are down double that right now so under the surface there's been a flight to safety as October has lived up to it's ugly reputation in terms of providing losses.

We'll take one more look at this on Tuesday just to see where we stand then.

I am out the next few days on business so the next post here will be either Thursday or  Friday.

*Long ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and personal accounts although positions can change at any time without being disseminated here or on any other form of electronic media or communication.