Tuesday, September 08, 2015

an tSionna {Nowhere to Hide}

200 day charts going back to mid-November last year, a time when many are now considering that last year's rally ended.  As you can see there's been basically nowhere to hide since then.  



Above you can see that the Nasdaq Composite Index {2nd in from the left} has actually scratched positive during this time.  Emerging markets have been taken to the woodshed.


This 2nd chart shows more of the same.  Emerging markets and Asian shares have taken it on the chin.  US bonds against all expectations have also risen.  This wasn't supposed to happen in a year when the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates.  

What isn't shown in these charts is cash.  Cash is often derided by the commentary corp as it yields nothing in the current environment.  My retort to that is that sometimes holding an asset cash that yields nothing beats losing something.  A weighted index of each of the ETFs in these charts {adjusted for the fact that emerging markets are overweighted above} shows a decline of just over 8% during the period.  As an aside I'm going to revamp these charts when I have some time because they in retrospect aren't as diversified as I would like and thus aren't representative enough for illustration purposes.

Hopefully back Thursday with some longer thoughts as promised.

*We are long various asset classes depicted above via ETFs or via ETFs related to the S&P 500 in client and or personal accounts.  Positions can vary in accounts depending on account strategy and the unique risk/reward characteristics of our clients.